Capitals, Lightning Set for Game 7 in Eastern Conference Finals

• The Capitals scored three or more goals in their three wins; all three losses they only managed two
• The Lightning are 2-1 with a chance to close out a series. Monday was their first loss after three wins in a series
• The Caps are 2-4 in their last six Game 7s (2011/12); the Lightning have gone 2-3 in their last five Game 7s (2010/11)

The Vegas Golden Knights have already punched their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final. On Wednesday they’ll find out whether they’re facing the Capitals or Lightning when the first puck drops on May 28.

The Eastern Conference Final initially continued a trend that began in the second round: road team domination. After the Capitals took the first two on the road, the Lightning returned the favor. Home teams kicked off the series 0-4. In Games 5 and 6, home ice advantage returned, as both teams took care of business.

Eastern Conference Finals Team Stats

Ovechkin and Stamkos Need to Step Up

Teams typically rely on their best players when their season is on the line. But with their seasons on the line, it’s two stars looking to change their narratives.

It’s taken years for the Caps to get over the hump. At the center of those criticisms was captain Alex Ovechkin. Overall, Ovechkin hasn’t always brought it in Game 7s. He’s got five points (two goals, three assists) in 10 career Game 7s.

There was a point in his career where he went three-straight without a point. He was also held scoreless in last year’s showdown with the Penguins.

Stamkos on Game 7: “We’ve worked all year to get this opportunity in front of our fans. I expect a better effort from us.” #Bolts #TBLvsWSH

— Bryan Burns (@BBurnsNHL) May 22, 2018

Steven Stamkos has largely gone under the radar when it comes to the ultimate deciding game. He has yet to find the scoresheet in the seventh game, although his most recent one was a heroic return from a blood clot with Tampa’s season on the line.

For me, it doesn’t matter what situation I’m in — if I’m on the bench, if I’m on the ice. I’m just going to give my best energy and support my teammates and do what I can. It doesn’t matter if it’s going to be goals, fights or whatever. It’s all one moment. – Alex Ovechkin

Both have been great in clinching games this year. Ovechkin has two goals and one assist in series clinching games this season, and while he didn’t score in Game 6, he had a massive impact. Stamkos has logged an assist in each of Tampa’s clinching games this playoffs, but was silent with a chance to send Washington packing.

Holtby the Key for Capitals, Can Vasilevskiy do it Again for Lightning?

While Braden Holtby took a back seat in the Caps’ crease when the playoffs started, he has turned in an excellent run in the playoffs. Andrei Vasilevskiy meanwhile, has struggled to find consistency as the playoffs have worn on.

.@TBLightning's Andrei Vasilevskiy faced a lot of shots and stopped quite a lot of them. But Capitals' goalie Braden Holtby faced 24 and stopped all of them. #GoBolts #TBLvsWSH pic.twitter.com/jax3L9YWXQ

— Bally Sports Florida & Bally Sports Sun (@BallySportsFL) May 22, 2018

Holtby’s biggest struggles came in Games 3-5 against Tampa. He allowed three goals each game and didn’t log a save percentage above .860. It was part of his season-long struggles against Tampa, who torched him for a 4.15 GAA and a sub-.800 save percentage.

Vasilevskiy is just hoping his struggles don’t bookend the series. After giving up 10 goals in the first two games, he’s allowed two in each of the next four.

Game 7 Prediction

Until Game 6, each game of this series featured at least five goals. While Game 7s are typically played pretty tight, these two make the O/U of 5.5 very attainable.

The difference maker has to be Vasilevskiy. He handed the Caps two wins, and then stole the series back, nearly on his own.

Washington caught Tampa flat-footed in Game 6. That shouldn’t happen in the series-decider, but the Caps have the blueprint, and aren’t intimidated by Amalie Arena.

Capitals 4, Lightning 3