Upcoming Match-ups

Coyotes vs Avalanche Game 5 Odds and Pick – Aug. 19

Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon
The Colorado Avalanche thumped the Arizona Coyotes to take a 3-1 series lead in Game 4 on Monday. Photo from @Avalanche (Twitter)
  • The Colorado Avalanche lead the Arizona Coyotes 3-1 in their first-round playoff series
  • Game 5 will be played Wednesday at 5:30 PM Eastern (2:30 PM Pacific)
  • After laying a 7-1 beatdown on Arizona on Monday, the odds heavily favor the Avs ending the series in Game 5

If you missed Game 4 between the Colorado Avalanche and Arizona Coyotes, here’s a quick summary to get you up to speed.

Imagine that, literally and figuratively, for 60 minutes of play and you have the idea. Officially, it was a 7-1 victory for Colorado, marking the most-lopsided game in the playoffs this year. The series isn’t over but it certainly seems to be trending in that direction.

In keeping with Monday’s outcome, the odds for Game 5 are the most-lopsided of the series to date.

Coyotes vs Avalanche Game 5 Odds

Team Puck Line Over/Under Moneyline at DraftKings
Arizona Coyotes +1.5 (-159) O 5.5 (+112) +172
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+133) U 5.5 (-137) -200

Odds as of August 17th.

The odds for Game 4  were almost as heavily tilted to Colorado, but now they have reached the -200 threshold.

Much like sportsbooks, I’ve settled on Colorado closing out the series and here’s why.

Coyotes Can’t Compete for 60 Minutes

The lone win for Arizona in the series came from an otherworldly performance by goaltender Darcy Kuemper. Relying on historic greatness from your goalie usually isn’t a recipe for success. The Coyotes tried to double down on the formula in Game 4 and ended up allowing seven goals while only generating 15 shots. It was a poor performance but one that didn’t look totally out of place considering their output in the rest of the series.

Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri, and Cale Makar are proving to be too much to handle. I don’t see an avenue for Arizona to get back into the series with all the high-end skill on Colorado playing this well.

Reward for Losing Needs to Be Considered

There’s an elephant in the room that Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask alluded to before he exited the bubble, stage left. Things are hard for NHL players right now. The games may or may not have the same intensity, depending on who you ask, but life away from the rink is rough. These players have been without their friends and families for a long stretch. The players in the Western Conference playoffs are stuck in Edmonton, a stark contrast from say, Arizona.

This isn’t to suggest players will up and quit when things get tough. What I am suggesting is that the deep reserve a player might need to stave off elimination against a clearly-superior opponent, well, it might not be there. Elimination this year comes with a perk that has never before been included with losing – a return to normalcy.

In series where one team has a big lead, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the resolve of the underdog. In the latter stages of Game 4, the Coyotes played like they were ready to catch the next flight home.

Get Aggressive and Bet the Avalanche Puckline

Colorado seems destined to win this series. If they hold a lead late in Game 5, Kuemper will likely get pulled early to give Arizona a chance to equalize. Coaches often get more aggressive on that front in do-or-die situations. That gives you a couple different ways you can win by betting Colorado -1.5. The Avalanche can romp, much the way they did in Game 4, and you’ll cash in or, if they could take advantage of a gaping net late in the clincher.

Either way, I’d take them at plus-money to win the next game by more than a goal.

PICK: Avalanche -1.5 (+133)

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.