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Avalanche vs Coyotes Game 4 Odds and Pick

The Arizona Coyotes celebrate a goal
The Arizona Coyotes won Game 3 and now trail the Colorado Avalanche 2-1 in the series. Photo by @coyotes_fanly (Twitter)
  • The Colorado Avalanche lead the Arizona Coyotes 2-1 in their best-of-seven series
  • Game 4 will be played Monday, August 17th at 5:30 pm EST
  • Read below for analysis and a betting prediction for the game

The Coyotes are back in the series after a less than convincing victory over the Avalanche in Game 3. The two teams will have a day off with the series resuming Monday at 5:30 pm EST.

Coyotes vs Avalanche Game 4 Odds

Team Puck Line Over/Under Moneyline at DraftKings
Arizona Coyotes +1.5 (-177) O 5 (-143) +165
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+155) U 5 (+118) -195

Odds taken Aug. 15th.

You’ll see a pattern forming when you look back to the Game 3 odds. There’s little trust in Arizona to back up Saturday’s big victory. Here’s the thing, it appears to be a volatile series when it comes to wins and losses. That doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made. I think your focus should be on the Under and here’s why.

Darcy Kuemper is Criminally Underrated

Coyotes goalie Darcy Kuemper was brilliant in Game 3 earning the first star. Who else would have earned the nod for Arizona after Kuemper stopped 49 of 51 shots leading his team to victory? He is an elite goaltender that definitely has the capability to keep games low scoring, thus giving his team a chance to win.

The reality is without Kuemper’s incredible play in the regular season the Coyotes wouldn’t even be here. He posted a 2.22 goals against average which ranked 3rd, and a .928 save percentage which also ranked 3rd. He accomplished all this while making only $1.85 million this season. Learn his name and as Damian Lillard might say, put some respect on it. Expect more of the same from Kuemper in Game 4.

Coyotes Strategy is to Limit Scoring Chances

This strategy may sound simplistic but it isn’t. The Coyotes are essentially hockey’s version of Muhammad Ali at this point. They have perfected the rope-a-dope and used it to get the win in Game 3. Arizona had 28 less shots than Colorado in the victory and had 26 less shots in Game 1 when the game was tied mid-way through the 3rd period. The game plan appears to be simple, forget counter attacks and pinching for scoring opportunities, protect the net at all costs.

The counter to this may be the high shot totals allowed but when you have an elite goaltender like Kuemper, it’s not the shot total that matters it’s the scoring chances. They gave up 39 in this one which is too many, but they also blocked 27 shots, limiting many more. Expect this to be the strategy going forward which gives two options for the Under to hit. If Kuemper plays well again it’s likely a winning play and/or if the defense improves and limits the chances against.

Expect Another Low Scoring Affair in Game 4

When looking at the Coyotes vs Avalanche odds you’ll see a pattern. In Game 1 the under was the winning wager. In Game 2 it was again the winning wager. If not for a pair of empty net goals and three tallies total in the final minute and 20 seconds, it would have won again in Game 3. Puck possession and shot attempts don’t equal goals when the opponent has an elite goalie and a top notch strategy. Forget who will win Game 4 and focus solely on the fact it’s likely going to be another tight, low scoring affair.

Pick: Under 5 (+118)

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