Game 1 Panthers vs Leafs Prediction, Pick & Props to Bet

• The Florida Panthers are -130 road favorites in Game 1 of their second-round series with the Toronto Maple Leafs
• Florida dispatched Toronto in Round 2 of the playoffs in 2023
• See the Panthers vs Leafs predictions, odds and best bets, below

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The Battle of Ontario is over. And now, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a whole other challenge: the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers.

Florida, who made quick work of the Tampa Bay Lightning, dispatching them in five games, are road favorites in Game 1 of this NHL playoff bracket.

Puck drop is scheduled for 8pm ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

The Panthers are -130 moneyline favorites in the NHL odds, with Toronto tabbed as a slight -110 underdog to strike first in this series. The total sits at 5.5 goals, and these teams went Under that total in three of four regular season meetings.

Odds as of May 5 at Caesars. Check out SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook review to see the available sign-up bonuses.

Panthers vs Leafs Prediction

• Over 5.5 goals (+100 at Caesars)

After the dust settled in Round 1, Florida’s numbers look pretty tough to beat. They’re second in goals per game, only behind Edmonton, at 3.80 per contest, and they’re tied for first in goals against with Washington, at 2.40.

Florida did a number on their in-state rivals, limiting Tampa to two goals or less three times in their series, while outscoring them overall by a count of 19-10.

It wasn’t one standout performer, as Sam Reinhart is currently the only Panther inside the Top 25 in playoff scoring, though Alex Barkov, Sam Bennettt, Matthew Tkachuk, Eetu Loustarinen and Anton Lundell all have five points, while Brad Marchand has four points.

The Panthers didn’t leave goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky to fend for himself, either, limiting the Lightning to 22 shots or less in four of the five games.

Bobrovsky was solid in net against the Leafs this season, going 3-1-0 with a 1.77 GAA and a .925 save percentage.

Bobrovsky vs Stolarz: Tale of the Tape

Aside from the shakiness of Toronto’s play in two straight losses after building a 3-0 series lead, the Leafs were the better team, and finally showed the grit needed to finish off an opponent with a big 4-2 win in Ottawa to advance.

The Leafs are the fourth-highest scoring team left in the postseason, potting 3.17 goals per game, and they’re right behind the Panthers and Caps in goals against, at 2.67. On paper, they should be able to hang with the Panthers, but we’ll see if they can match the grit and pedigree.

They’re hoping Anthony Stolarz can continue his solid stint between the pipes in the playoffs, as his numbers through Round 1 are identical to Bobrovsky’s in terms of goals against (2.21) and save perecentage (.901).

He struggled against Florida in the regular season, going 1-2-0 with a 3.06 GAA and an .886 save percentage.

But the pressure won’t be on him as much as it will be on William Nylander, Mitch Marner and Austson Matthews. Those three Leafs all rank inside the Top 16 in playoff scoring, and need to be the driving forces in this series.

The Under has cashed in three straight head-to-head meetings, but I think there will be a just slightly more offense Monday. Florida found its scoring groove late in Round 1, tallying 10 goals in its last two games. Toronto also saw the Over cash in two of its last three games.

Panthers vs Maple Leafs Player Props

From DraftKings Sportsbook on May 5.

Matthews led the Leafs in shots agains the Senators, pumping 21 on net during the six game series, but only crossing 3.5 shots — his line for Monday — twice, and going Under that total four times in his last five games.

During the regular season, he split the total in the four games, but over the big picture, he generally gets plenty of rubber on net against the Panthers, with four or more shots on goal vs Florida in 10 of his last 13 games against them.

I’m looking at veteran Brad Maarchand as a guy that can really do some damage in this series, as Florida isn’t dependant on his offense, taking the pressure of him and letting be his pesky self.

Toronto has seen enough of this guy, and I’m surprised he’s getting plus odds to record a point against the Leafs. Marchand has recorded a point in eight of his last 10 games against the Leafs in the regular season.

In 28 career playoff games vs Toronto, he has 10 goals and 19 assists.

FLA-TOR Prop Picks:

• Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots (-120)

• Brad Marchand Over 0.5 Points (+100)