Game 2 Oilers vs Stars Prediction, Pick & Betting Odds (Friday, May. 23)

• We’ve made our Oilers vs Stars prediction for Game 2 of the Western Conference Final
• Dallas leads the best-of-seven series 1-0 and are favored to take Game 2
• Read below for my Oilers vs Stars Game 2 predictions and betting pick

After a wild third period saw the Dallas Stars pull away for a 6-3 victory in Game 1, the Edmonton Oilers look to even the series Friday night at American Airlines Center. The Oilers controlled play for 40 minutes before a penalty-filled final frame swung momentum completely. Online sportsbooks have installed Dallas as slight home favorites, but I’m eyeing the total in the Oilers vs Stars odds.

Puck drop is set for 8:00 PM ET on ESPN, with the series potentially swinging on tonight’s outcome.

Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars Prediction

Wednesday’s opener told two different stories. Through two periods, we witnessed playoff hockey at its finest – structured, defensive play with limited scoring chances. Then came the third-period chaos. Dallas capitalized on three power plays in less than six minutes, with Miro Heiskanen, Mikael Granlund and Matt Duchene all finding the net with the man advantage. Throw in an empty-netter and suddenly a 3-3 game became a lopsided 6-3 final.

The underlying numbers paint a clearer picture. At 5-on-5 play, the Oilers dominated possession with a 55.5% Corsi For percentage and won the expected goals battle at a 59% clip. Connor McDavid’s line with Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was particularly dominant, posting a ridiculous 75.0 CF% and 84.4 xGF%. Leon Draisaitl drove play as well with a 61.3 CF% despite rotating wingers.

Stuart Skinner performed admirably at even strength, stopping shots at a .909 clip with 0.10 goals saved above expected. Jake Oettinger, meanwhile, posted his first sub-.900 save percentage of the playoffs. Both netminders are capable of much better, and I expect them to deliver in Game 2.

Oilers vs Stars Advanced Playoff Stats

The key for Edmonton? Stay out of the penalty box. Their 62.2% penalty kill ranks 15th among playoff teams – a glaring weakness against Dallas’ lethal power play operating at 34.9% (2nd in playoffs). The Stars proved they can make opponents pay for undisciplined play, and the Oilers took far too many “silly penalties” in Game 1.

History suggests we’re in for a tighter contest. Last year’s Western Conference Final between these teams saw just two of six games exceed six goals. Both coaches will emphasize discipline and structure after Wednesday’s penalty parade. The stage is set for a classic playoff grind.

Oilers vs Stars Pick

• Under 6.5 Total Goals (-115)

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Game 1’s inflated scoreline has created value on the under. Strip away those three power-play goals and empty-netter, and you had a defensive battle brewing. The 5-on-5 play generated just 4.64 expected goals with only 17 high-danger chances – numbers that scream under.

Edmonton enters with impressive road under trends, hitting it in 32 of their last 55 away games (+8.70 units). Meanwhile, Dallas boasts the 4th-best goals against average (2.93) and 2nd-ranked penalty kill (84.8%) in the playoffs. If the Oilers clean up their discipline – and they’ll surely emphasize it after Game 1 – scoring chances should be at a premium.

Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars Odds

The total sits at 6.5 with slight juice on the under at -115. Dallas comes in as modest -120 home favorites, while the Oilers offer value at +100 on the moneyline.

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Odds as of May 23rd at BET99. Edmonton residents can bet on this game with the Bet 99 promo code.

According to the NHL public betting trends, 86% of bets and money have landed on the over – a classic spot to fade the public. The perception is that this will be another high-scoring game, but the juice on Under 6.5 shows where the money is going. When the sharps align against the public, it’s worth taking notice.