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Golden Knights Division and Stanley Cup Odds Rebounding During 4-2-2 Stretch

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey

Feb 11, 2020 · 9:10 AM PST

Vegas Golden Knights' goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury
Marc-Andre Fleury's Vegas Golden Knights have seen both their Pacific Division odds and Stanley Cup odds improve during a 4-2-2 stretch. Photo by Michael Miller (Wikimedia Commons).
  • The Golden Knights are 4-2-2 in their last eight games
  • Vegas is now +225 to win the Pacific Division and +1600 to win the Stanley Cup
  • Is there value betting on the Golden Knights?

Oddsmakers are giving love to the Vegas Golden Knights during a solid stretch of play that has seen them go 4-2-2.

Vegas has moved from +313 to +225 in the NHL division odds and from +1800 to +1600 in the Stanley Cup odds.

Are the Golden Knights a good bet to either win the division or the Stanley Cup?

2020 Divisional and Stanley Cup Odds: Pacific Division

Team Average Division Odds Average Stanley Cup Odds
Vegas Golden Knights +225 +1600
Vancouver Canucks +250 +2000
Edmonton Oilers +350 +3000
Calgary Flames +500 +5000
Arizona Coyotes +675 +3000
San Jose Sharks +2250 +8000
Anaheim Ducks +12500 +50000
Los Angeles Kings +60000 +50000

Odds taken Feb. 10

Vegas has 64 points in 55 games this season. They are tied with the Oilers for second in the Pacific and are three points back of the division-leading Canucks.

Knights Picking Up Steam

The Golden Knights are heating up with a 4-2-2 run after a disappointing stretch in January that saw them lose seven of eight games. While they’ve scored 11 goals in their last two games, they’ve now surrendered at least four goals in eight of their last 14 contests.

Vegas has three 20-goal-scorers in Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and Reilly Smith, while Chandler Stephenson is starting to emerge as a quality secondary scorer. The problem for the Golden Knights is goaltending. Starter Marc-Andre Fleury is still struggling following the passing of his father, while backup Malcolm Subban has underwhelmed with a .897 save percentage.

Fleury’s save percentage has fallen to .906 on the year, but his .913 career save percentage indicates that his play should improve at some point down the stretch. The Golden Knights are playing well enough that as long as Fleury gets back on track, they should win the division.

Vegas’ Advanced Stats Among NHL’s Best

A reason to bet on the Golden Knights is that they have some of the best advanced stats in the NHL. Vegas ranks first in Fenwick (54.19 FF%), first in Expected Goals For (55.06%), and third in Corsi (54.05 CF%). They are allowing the seventh-fewest amount of shots in the NHL (30.1/GP),  while also ranking second in shots for (34.3/GP).

Vegas is arguably the most complete team in the division in terms of offense and defense. The Canucks and Flames have both been relying too heavily on their goaltender, while Arizona is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league. The Oilers, meanwhile, are a wildcard in the race due to inconsistent play all season.

Tough Competition at the Top

The Golden Knights have some solid value to win the Pacific Division, but they’re going to be in tough to capture Lord Stanley this season. There are eight NHL teams with 70-plus points who all present a legitimate threat to go all the way.

The Lightning and Bruins are two Eastern Conference powerhouses that would certainly give Vegas problems if they managed to come out of the West. With Fleury’s struggles, I wouldn’t want to bet on him outduelling an elite goalie such as Tuukka Rask (Bruins), Andrei Vasilevskiy (Lightning), Tristan Jarry (Penguins) or Jordan Binnington (Blues) in a late-round playoff series.

If you’re looking for a good longshot bet in the West, I’d look at the Stars (+1400) behind netminder Ben Bishop. Dallas ranks third in the NHL with only 2.53 GAA per game and they came within one goal of defeating the Cup champs in last year’s playoffs.

Betting Analysis

Vegas has the tools to win the Pacific Division this year,  but there are better longshot options when it comes to the Stanley Cup.

Goaltending is everything when it comes to the postseason, and Fleury’s .906 save percentage isn’t screaming long playoff run right now.

The Golden Knights are still the most talented team in the Pacific, so as long as Fleury rebounds to some extent down the stretch, they remain a solid bet for the division title.

Pick: Vegas Golden Knights to Win Pacific Division (+225)

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