- The Vegas Golden Knights face the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final
- VGK is priced as small favorites over DAL in the NHL Round 3 series prices
- Read below for Golden Knights vs Stars series odds, spread and prediction
The Vegas Golden Knights will square off with the Dallas Stars in the NHL’s 2023 Western Conference Final. The series will begin Friday night in Sin City, with VGK holding home-ice advantage due to being the higher seed.
The Golden Knights are priced as small favorites in the Western Conference Final series odds despite Dallas winning the regular-season series. Vegas took down Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers in Round 2, while Dallas required seven games to past the Seattle Kraken.
Let’s dive into the Golden Knights vs Stars odds, preview the series and offer our prediction for who will win.
Golden Knights vs Stars Series Odds
|Vegas Golden Knights||-130|
The Knights are priced as -130 moneyline favorite in the Western Conference Final, meaning they have 57% implied win probability. The Stars come back at +110 underdogs, meaning they have 48% implied win probability.
The updated 2023 Stanley Cup odds reflect each team’s odds to win the series. Vegas is priced at +260 to hoist Lord Stanley, while Dallas is offered at +300.
Odds as of May 12th at DraftKings Sportsbook.
When it comes to the Golden Knights vs Stars series schedule, the Western Conference Final begins Friday at T-Mobile Arena in Vegas. The series will be broadcast by ESPN, with TNT set to broadcast the Eastern Conference Final. Here’s the full schedule:
Game 1: Friday, May 19 | 8:30 p.m et
Game 2: Sunday, May 21 | 3:00 p.m et
Game 3: Tuesday, May 23 | 8 p.m. et
Game 4: Thursday, May 25 | 8 p.m. et
Game 5: Saturday, May 27 | 8 p.m. et
Game 6: Monday, May 29| 8 p.m. et
Game 7: Wednesday, May 31 | 9 p.m. et
Golden Knights in Familiar Territory
The Vegas Golden Knights will be playing in the NHL’s Western Conference Final for the fourth time in their six years since joining the NHL. Vegas defeated the Edmonton Oilers in six games during Round 2 to advance to the WFC.
Vegas was priced as +130 series underdogs against an Edmonton team featuring Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Golden Knights were able to limit the two stars’ production at 5-on-5, while exploiting the weaknesses in Oilers rookie goalie Stuart Skinner.
The Golden Knights are led by first-line center Jack Eichel, who has netted six goals and eight assists. Chandler Stephenson has also tallied six goals, while captain Mark Stone and winger Jonathan Marchessault each have five goals apiece.
In the goaltending crease, 27-year-old Adin Hill has taken over starting duties with Vegas’ previous playoff starter, Lauren Brossoit, going down with an injury. Hill has started the past three games, posting a 2.19 GAA and .934 save percentage.
Vegas is advancing despite struggling with special teams. The Golden Knights’ penalty kill is operating at only 60%, which almost proved costly in Round 2 against Edmonton. VGK’s power play, meanwhile, is clicking at just 17.5%.
Stars Eliminate Kraken
The Dallas Stars advanced to the Western Conference Final by eliminating the Seattle Kraken in Round 2 of the postseason. Rookie Wyatt Johnston scored the game-winning goal in Game 7 on Monday to propel Dallas to its second WFC in the past four years.
The advanced metrics suggest Dallas is potentially the best remaining team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Pete DeBoer’s club has an expected goals rate of 54.13%, which ranks first among all teams. They also average the most goals per game (3.75), while allowing the second-fewest amount of shots (29.9).
— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) May 16, 2023
The Stars are led by 26-year-old Finn Roope Hintz, who has become an NHL superstar over the past two seasons. The speedy 24-year-old followed up on an excellent point-per-game regular season with a league-high 19 points in 13 playoff contests.
Dallas’ x-factor for the Western Conference Final, however, comes in the goalie crease. 24-year-old American goalie Jake Oettinger is regarded as one of the best current NHL goalies, yet hasn’t played his best this postseason. In 13 starts, Oettinger is 13-5-0 with a .900 save percentage.
While Oettinger usually gets most of the credit, the Stars possess a dynamic blueline. Dallas’ top pairing of Miro Heiskanen and Ryan Suter have only been on the ice for six goals against this postseason, and are a key reason the team’s penalty kill is operating at 83.3% efficiency.
Golden Knights vs Stars Head-to-Head History
Dallas had the head-to-head edge against Vegas this season, posting a 2-1-0 record against the Knights in the 2022-23 regular season. The last two meetings were decided by one goal, however, including a 2-1 shootout victory for the Stars on April 8th in Dallas.
Vegas vs Dallas Recent Results
|04/08/2023||DAL 2 – VGK 1||DAL||VGK||Under|
|02/26/2023||VGK 2 – DAL 3||DAL||DAL||Under|
|01/17/2023||VGK 0 – DAL 4||DAL||DAL||Under|
|04/27/2022||DAL 3 – VGK 2||DAL||VGK||Under|
|12/09/2022||VGK 5 – DAL 4||VGK||DAL||Over|
The standout performers during the VGK vs DAL head-to-head regular-season meetings were Dallas’ Kiviranta and Oettinger. Kiviranta netted a pair of goals, while Oettinger started each of the three games, going 3-0-0 with a .967 save percentage and one shutout.
Vegas and Dallas have played once in the playoffs before, the 2020 Western Conference Final, won by the Stars in five games. It was a tight series that year, with Dallas outscoring Vegas 9-8 and winning each game by only one goal, including two in overtime.
Golden Knights vs Stars Prediction
When it comes to our Vegas vs Dallas prediction, it’s hard to ignore the head-to-head stats and advanced metrics. Furthermore, the Stars also possess a significant special teams advantage, which could be the difference in an expected tight-checking series.
Golden Knights vs Stars Head-to-Head Stats
|51-22-9||NHL Regular Season Record||47-21-14|
The Stars have been quite impressive this postseason despite one of their players, Jason Robertson, only having two goals in the playoffs. If Oettinger was also playing more consistently, you’d have to think Dallas would be favored in this series.
Oettinger is capable of stealing this series, and that puts all the moneyline value on Dallas. Yes, VGK has home-ice advantage and just beat Edmonton, but there are still question marks. Special teams have been a nightmare, and VGK will be relying on a goalie who owns a .910 save percentage in 101 career NHL appearances.
The Stars feature 15 different players who have scored at least one goal in this postseason. We predict Dallas’ offensive depth and excellent defense/goaltending combo will be the difference in the Western Conference Final.
Pick: Dallas Stars Series Moneyline (+110)
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