Leafs Climb to -160 Favorites in Series Prices After Game 1 Win Over Bruins
- The Maple Leafs defied expectations, and recent history, with a dominating performance in Game 1
- Toronto is now favored to claim its first series win over Boston since 1959
- Depth, discipline, and experience proved key
Fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs breathed a collective sigh of relief following the club’s impressive 4-1 victory over the Boston Bruins in Game 1 of their first-round playoff series on Thursday night.
Now sporting their first lead in a playoff series with Boston since 1959 — also the last time they beat Boston in the postseason — the Maple Leafs have turned the tables on their divisional rivals in NHL playoff betting, climbing to short -160 favorites to knock off the Bruins.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins NHL Playoff Series Prices
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -160 |
| Boston Bruins | +140 |
*Odds taken on 04/12/19
Leafs Battling History in Rematch with Boston
Pegged as early-season favorites in the 2019 Stanley Cup futures, optimism surrounding Toronto’s championship prospects faded badly during the regular-season stretch run. A dismal 4-8-2 finish to their schedule locked the Maple Leafs into third place in the Atlantic Division, setting the stage for a second straight opening-round meeting with Boston.
The Bruins dominated Toronto early on in last year’s playoff matchup, with the top line of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, and Brad Marchand combining to score 20 total points in a pair of lopsided Bruins wins to open the series.
Bruins Top Players vs Leafs in 2018 Playoffs
Player GP G A Pts
Pastrnak 7 5 8 13
Krug 7 2 7 9
Marchand 7 3 6 9
Bergeron 6 1 7 8
Krejci 7 2 6 8— Kevin Gibson (@GibShow) April 11, 2019
While the Maple Leafs would eventually battle back to push the series to seven games, they were outclassed by the Bruins, who averaged four goals per game in the series and outscored Toronto 28-20.
Leafs Best Players Stepped Up
The Maple Leafs’ talented core has entered this postseason showing clear signs of the benefits gained from last year’s brutal playoff experience. Playing some of their most disciplined and opportunistic hockey of the season, Toronto limited Boston’s vaunted top line to just two points and nine total shots in Thursday’s 4-1 victory.
The Maple Leafs’ talented core has entered this postseason showing clear signs of the benefits gained from last year’s brutal playoff experience.
In addition, Toronto’s stars also proved to be the club’s best players in Game 1. The Leafs got a pair of goals from Mitch Marner (including one on a short-handed penalty shot), while prized free agent John Tavares tallied two points, and goaltender Frederik Andersen stood tall, making 37 saves to seal the win.
https://t.co/t5Ery1sYkQ#MapleLeafs defeat #Bruins 4-1 in Game 1…Mitch #Marner with 2 goals; one of them an absolute beauty! #NHL #HockeyTwitter #StanleyCup #StanleyCupPlayoffs #Leafs #LeafsForever #NHLBruins @MapleLeafs @NHLBruins #TORvsBOS @ThePuck77 @JoshTessler_ pic.twitter.com/rgcRtmJ7eI
— Joey Wagner (@TheTruthSwagner) April 12, 2019
With Thursday’s victory, Toronto has moved past the Bruins to +1200 in the Stanley Cup odds. But can the Maple Leafs maintain the pace set in Game 1 and claim their first playoff series victory since 2004?
The short answer is yes.
[crospost]It is no secret that the Maple Leafs have struggled to find steady success when playing in the enemy territory that is TD Garden. The club was outgunned by a wide 11-4 margin in two trips to Boston this season, and has posted consecutive victories just once in 14 overall meetings with the Bruins since seeing a six-game win streak end in November 2017.
Toronto’s Depth Tipping Balance of Power
However, the Maple Leafs’ superiority over Boston in terms of depth was clearly evident in Game 1. With the trio of Bergeron, Marchand, and Pastrnak accounting for over 40% of the team’s goal production this season, shutting down the Bruins power trio is crucial to Toronto’s success. And with Jake Debrusk’s status for Game 2 still up in the air after the 27-goal scorer suffered an undisclosed injury in Game 1, the burden gets even heavier for Boston’s top line.
Mitch Marner scores his first goal of the playoffs! (Audio w/ @BonsieTweets & @Jim_Ralph) https://t.co/rDBQgQm8Bv #BringBackBowen #TMLtalk #GoLeafsGo
— Goal Leafs Goal (@Goal_Leafs_Goal) April 12, 2019
Conversely, Toronto has received offensive contributions up and down the lineup, with seven players hitting the 20-goal mark, enabling coach Mike Babcock to roll three scoring lines.
The Leafs’ dominance on the dot was also evident, with Tavares and Auston Matthews combining to win 26 of 43 puck drops in Game 1, including Tavares’ key faceoff win that directly led to Marner’s first-period goal to tie the game.
Contributions Coming from Up and Down the Roster
The Maple Leafs’ fourth line of Connor Brown, Frederic Gauthier, and Trevor Moore also proved effective at frustrating the Bruins throughout Game 1, and contributed to the club’s all-round disciplined play, particularly in the third period, when they avoided defensive let-downs while limiting Boston to just nine shots on goal.
Missed from last night's game, Trevor Moore demolishes Zdeno Chara (Credit to Reddit user u/elevenstewart for spotting this) pic.twitter.com/HmjcOGnHz6
— Michael (@TheLeafsIMO) April 12, 2019
One win does not a series make. But with newfound confidence and maturity that seemed to often elude them in the regular season, the Maple Leafs are now in the driver’s seat, and poised to rewrite a decades-long narrative. And while the Bruins are likely to come out with a characteristic physical response in Game 2, the best betting value in this series can be found in a Toronto club that looks to have finally come of age.
Pick: Maple Leafs (-160) to win the series
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
