Lightning vs. Canadiens Picks, Predictions, Odds & Props (Apr. 9)

• The Canadiens are +102 underdogs at home tonight versus the Lightning
• Montreal has won 9 of 10 games coming in
• Get my favorite Lightning vs Canadiens picks and predictions below, plus props and the latest betting odds

The Montreal Canadiens host the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight in a battle of two playoff bound Eastern Conference clubs.

The Lightning hit the ice as slight road favorites in the NHL odds, looking to snap a brief losing skid, while the Canadiens aim to defend home ice and build off a recent wave of momentum.

Puck drop is scheduled for 7 pm ET, inside the Bell Centre, in Montreal, QC, with ESPN+ providing the broadcast coverage.

Keep reading for my favorite Lightning vs Canadiens picks and predictions, plus props and the latest betting odds.

Lightning vs Canadiens Picks and Predictions

• Canadiens Moneyline (+102 at DraftKings)

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I’m backing the Canadiens on the moneyline tonight, as they seek a 10th win in 11 games. This matchup features elite offensive catalysts like Nikita Kucherov and Nick Suzuki, and this divisional showdown will test Montreal’s stout neutral zone structure against Tampa Bay’s high-flying attack.

Lightning vs Canadiens Stats

Per the numbers, the Lightning appear to be the more complete two-way squad. Tampa Bay generates slightly more offense (3.55 goals per game) while successfully suppressing opponents to just 2.62 goals against. Tampa Bay also holds an edge in overall shot differential and boasts a far superior penalty kill (82.0%).

However, the deeper situational stats reveal exactly why the Canadiens are such a dangerous betting proposition tonight. Montreal holds a distinct structural mismatch in the faceoff dot, winning 51.0% of their draws compared to Tampa Bay’s sub-par 47.6% success rate. Controlling the puck off the drop is crucial for dictating pace, especially on home ice.

Furthermore, Montreal plays a significantly heavier, more physical brand of hockey. The Canadiens out-hit the Lightning and show much more willingness to sacrifice the body, stepping in front of 16.46 blocked shots per contest compared to Tampa Bay’s 12.22. If the gritty Canadiens can leverage their physical edge, control the faceoff circle, and utilize their elite 23.9% power play, Montreal’s statistical advantages align perfectly with our prediction of a home upset.

The Canadiens are currently riding an incredible wave of momentum and playing a punishing style of hockey. Montreal is a staggering 9-1 over their last 10 games and an impressive 6-1 against opponents with a winning record over their last seven outings. Furthermore, Montreal has made the Bell Centre an absolute fortress, going 5-1 straight up in their last six home games.

Conversely, the Lightning have hit a wall when facing quality competition outside of Florida, and their road performance has recently fallen off a cliff. Tampa Bay is just 5-9 against opponents with a winning record over their last 14 games, and a concerning 1-3 on the road over their last four contests. Not exactly the stuff of a top Stanley Cup odds contender.

Lightning vs Canadiens Props

• Jake Guentzel – Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-139 at Bet365)
• Mike Matheson – Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-105 at Bet365)

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Moving over to the NHL props market, where Jake Guentzel has been a high-volume shooter down the stretch, consistently finding soft spots in the offensive zone. He has exceeded 2.5 shots on goal in 7 of his last 9 games, boasting a reliable 77.8% success rate while averaging 3.44 shots per game during that span.

Mike Matheson meanwhile, has been incredibly aggressive jumping into the rush on home ice. He has gone over 1.5 shots on goal in 12 of his last 15 home games, averaging 2.27 shots per contest in front of the Montreal crowd. Furthermore, when the Canadiens are favored or near pick-’em at home, that trend improves even more, hitting in 8 of his last 9 games.

Lightning vs Canadiens Odds

Odds as of April 9. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive Bet365 promo code to bet on the NHL on Thursday.

Shifting to the Lightning vs Canadiens odds, where you’re going to need access to multiple betting sites to tail my picks tonight. DraftKings has the best price on a Canadiens win at +102, while Bet365 has the lowest juice on the prop lines for both Guentzel and Matheson.

If you’re looking to bet the total, 6.5 goals is the consensus number, with Bet365 offering the shortest odds on the over, and FanDuel the best price on the under.