Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction, Best Bets & Odds for Wednesday (Feb. 25)

• The Lightning are -222 home favorites over the Maple Leafs on Wednesday night
• Tampa Bay is 19-1-1 over their last 21 games, and Andrei Vasilevskiy owns a .938 save percentage during his eight-game win streak
• See my Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction below, plus the latest odds, best bets and projected lineups for Wednesday

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The NHL is back from its Olympic break, and we’ve got an Atlantic Division showdown to kick things off. The Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21-9, 11-12-3 away) visit the Tampa Bay Lightning (37-14-4, 18-9-0 home) at Benchmark International Arena tonight.

Tampa Bay sits atop the Atlantic by six points and enters play tied with Carolina for first in the Eastern Conference. Toronto? They’re sixth in the division with 63 points, sitting six back of a playoff spot and desperate for every point down the stretch.

Online sportsbooks have the Bolts as heavy home favorites per the latest NHL odds, and it’s hard to argue with the price given how they’ve played since mid-December.

Keep reading for my Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction, plus the latest odds, best bets and projected lineups.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction

• Under 6.5 Goals (-135 at DraftKings)

I know what you’re thinking — the over has cashed in 20 of the last 28 meetings between these teams. That’s a rather convincing betting trend. But I think tonight is different.

For starters, this is the first NHL game action in nearly three weeks. Both teams will be shaking off rust, and the pace of play in these post-break openers tends to be sloppy rather than free-flowing. I don’t expect a track meet.

TOR vs TB: Key Stats

More importantly, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been borderline untouchable. The Vezina candidate is on an eight-game win streak with a .938 save percentage and 1.58 GAA over that stretch. Looking at his last 10 starts, the under has cashed in six of them.

On the other side, Toronto’s offense isn’t exactly built to light up a goaltender playing this well. The Maple Leafs rank 22nd on the power play at 18.8%, and they’re 25th in expected goals for per 60 minutes at even strength. Without Mitch Marner in the fold, their attack lacks that extra dimension it once had.

Both penalty kills are top-five in the league as well, which should keep the special teams scoring to a minimum. I’ll take under 6.5 as my Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction tonight.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Best Bets

• Lightning -1.5 (+115 at Bet365)

I’m not laying -222 on the moneyline — that’s too steep for the first game back, no matter how hot Tampa is. But I do think the Bolts win this one comfortably, which makes the puck line at +115 a much better way to get exposure.

Tampa Bay is 19-1-1 over their last 21 games. They’re 18-9-0 at Benchmark International Arena this season and haven’t lost at home since late January. Ten of their last 14 wins have come by at least two goals.

Back from Milan 🙌 pic.twitter.com/E3DBJoxecY

— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) February 24, 2026

The Leafs won three straight heading into the break, but that came on the heels of a six-game losing streak. And they’ve simply been brutal against good teams lately. Toronto is 0-4 in their last four games against clubs with winning record Each of those four losses came by three goals.

I realize Toronto has won the last five head-to-head meetings, including a 2-0 shutout win at Scotiabank Arena back on Dec. 8. But that was a completely different Lightning team. Tampa was still working through significant injury issues, as McDonagh and Cernak were both sidelined. This is a fully healthy roster riding what may be the best stretch of hockey any team has played all season.

• John Tavares Over 0.5 Points (-117 at FanDuel)

Even if I like Tampa to win big, I want a piece of Tavares in the points market. Toronto’s captain has recorded at least one point in six straight games against the Lightning.

With Matthews potentially on a limited workload after the Olympics (coach Craig Berube said they’ll evaluate how he feels), Tavares could see extra minutes and a bigger role in the offensive zone. He’s second on the team with 140 shots on goal this season.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Odds

The Lightning moneyline at -222 carries an implied win probability of roughly 69%, which feels about right for a team that’s won 19 of 21. A $100 bet on Tampa to win outright would net you just $45 in profit — not much juice for the risk.

The puck line is where I’d look. Tampa is -1.5 at +115 odds, which gives you a better payout if you believe they win by two or more. Toronto’s moneyline at +182 does offer a solid return if you think the Leafs can pull the upset, but fading this Lightning team right now is a tough sell.

Odds as of Feb. 25 at NHL betting apps. The interactive table above will automatically update as the NHL odds move over the course of the day.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Projected Lineups

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forwards:

Gage Goncalves – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Yanni Gourde – Jake Guentzel
Zemgus Girgensons – Dominic James – Pontus Holmberg
Curtis Douglas – Steven Lorentz – Oliver Bjorkstrand

Defense:

Janis Moser – Darren Raddysh
Philippe D’Astous – Victor Hedman
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak

Goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy

The big news for Tampa is the return of Brayden Point, who hasn’t played since Jan. 12 due to an undisclosed injury that also kept him out of the Olympics for Team Canada. Point slots right back into the top line alongside Kucherov.

Victor Hedman is also back after a lower-body injury suffered during Olympic warmups with Team Sweden, while Hagel, Guentzel and Cernak all return from the break as well.

The Lightning will be without Anthony Cirelli (upper body) and Nick Paul (undisclosed). Assistant coach Rob Zettler is running the bench with Jon Cooper away from the team for personal reasons.

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines

Forwards:

Bobby McMann – Auston Matthews – Max Domi
Matias Maccelli – John Tavares – William Nylander
Matthew Knies – Nicolas Roy – Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz – Scott Laughton – TBD

Defense:

Morgan Rielly – Brandon Carlo
Jake McCabe – Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Simon Benoit – Troy Stecher

Goalie: Joseph Woll (questionable – illness)

Auston Matthews is expected to play after captaining Team USA to Olympic gold. He had seven points (three goals, four assists) in six Olympic games and has 48 points (36 goals, 22 assists) in 51 games this season. Coach Berube said Matthews is “riding a pretty good high right now” and feeling good.

Max Domi is a game-time decision for personal reasons. Chris Tanev (groin) and Dakota Joshua (upper body) are both on IR and unavailable.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning How to Watch

Puck drop for tonight’s Atlantic Division matchup is set for 7:30 pm ET at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. The game will air on TNT, HBO MAX and truTV, with SN and TVAS handling the Canadian broadcast.