By Brady Trettenero in College Basketball
Published:
The South Region opens Thursday night with No. 14 seed Penn (18-11) facing No. 3 seed Illinois (24-8) at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, SC.
Online sportsbooks have installed the Fighting Illini as massive 25.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds. Illinois ranks seventh at KenPom and second nationally in offensive efficiency, but they’re coming off a brutal 91-88 overtime loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament where they blew a 15-point second-half lead.
The action tips off at 9:25 pm ET with TNT providing the broadcast coverage.
Here is my Penn vs Illinois prediction, plus the latest picks, odds and injury news.
Penn just won the Ivy League Tournament behind a historic performance from TJ Power. The Duke transfer dropped 44 points and 14 rebounds against Yale in the title game, including a game-tying three at the end of regulation to force overtime. The Quakers needed two overtime wins to get here.
The problem is they’re now without their leading scorer. Ethan Roberts (16.9 PPG) missed both Ivy League Tournament games with a concussion and is out for the season. That leaves Power as the only proven offensive weapon, and Illinois has the athletes to load up on him.
Illinois is the better team by a wide margin. They rank eighth nationally in points per game (88.0 PPG) and have five starters averaging double figures. Freshman guard Keaton Wagler shoots over 40% from three and just put up 19 points and 8 assists against Wisconsin. The Illini remain a legitimate contender in the March Madness championship odds.
I’ve got Illinois rolling in this one, but 25.5 points is a lot to cover in March. Penn is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up win and 4-0 ATS versus teams with winning percentages above .600. Give me the Illini by 20 with Penn backdooring inside the number.
My top Penn vs Illinois pick is the Quakers plus the points. This spread opened at Illinois -21.5 and has climbed to -25.5, which means the market has already priced in the Roberts absence. At this number, you’re asking Illinois to win by four touchdowns on a neutral floor in March.
The Illini actually have a losing record on neutral sites this season (2-3). That includes the Wisconsin loss and a 95-94 overtime defeat to UCLA. They went 0-4 in overtime games this year, which speaks to late-game execution issues.
Penn normally plays an up-tempo style, but without Roberts they don’t have the firepower for a shootout. Expect the Quakers to lean on Power and play more deliberately to keep this game manageable.
The under correlates well with Penn covering. If the Quakers are keeping this game within 25.5 points without Roberts, they’re doing it by limiting Illinois possessions and avoiding a track meet they can’t win.
The trends support the under here. It’s 7-1 in Illinois’ last eight neutral site games and 6-1 in Penn’s last seven overall. Illinois just allowed 91 points to Wisconsin, but that game went to overtime. In regulation, the Illini defense is stingier than the raw numbers suggest.
Penn averages just 75.0 PPG and shoots 41.9% from the field. Without their leading scorer, that number likely drops further. I’m projecting something in the 82-62 range, which falls well short of this total.
If you want another angle, look at the 1H under 71.5. Tournament games often start slow with nerves and unfamiliar surroundings. Illinois averages 41.8 first-half points, but that’s against Big Ten competition. Penn’s depleted roster makes a sluggish start even more likely.
The Penn vs Illinois college basketball public betting splits tell an interesting story. On the spread, 94.85% of tickets and 84.11% of money are backing Penn +25.5. That’s rare consensus on an underdog, but laying 25.5 points is a bridge too far for most bettors.
The total is where the contrarian value lives. A whopping 92.94% of bets and 92.57% of money are on the over. The public loves rooting for points, especially in a game where Illinois averages 88 PPG. But without Roberts and with Power’s health in question, Penn doesn’t have the firepower to keep up in a shootout. Fading the masses on the under is the sharpest angle on this board.
The Penn vs Illinois odds have the Illini as astronomical -7692 moneyline favorites. That gives Illinois roughly a 99% implied win probability. A $20 bet on Illinois at -7692 returns just $0.26 in profit, making the moneyline completely impractical. The spread is the only reasonable way to bet this game.
Odds as of March 19. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on the NCAA Tournament bracket. You can also download a printable March Madness bracket to follow along.
Penn’s injury situation is critical to this matchup and one of the key storylines on the March Madness injuries report. Leading scorer Ethan Roberts (16.9 PPG) is out for the season with a concussion sustained before the Ivy League Tournament. He missed both tournament games and won’t return.
Star forward TJ Power (16.8 PPG) missed practice with a sudden illness earlier this week and was listed as questionable. Power played through it in the Ivy League Tournament and should be available, but his conditioning is worth monitoring.
Illinois is also dealing with long-term absences. Forward Jason Jakstys is out for the season with a shoulder injury (blood clot), and guard Ty Rodgers has been sidelined indefinitely since November with a knee injury.
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
Updated: 1 minute ago
Updated: 16 minutes ago
Updated: 20 minutes ago
Updated: 14 minutes ago