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Leafs Stanley Cup Odds Fading Fast After Dropping 8 of Last 12

Ryan Bolta

by Ryan Bolta in NHL Hockey

Updated Mar 26, 2020 · 3:01 PM PDT

John Tavares Toronto Maple Leafs center
John Tavares and the Leafs are struggling down the stretch, but should bettors put much credence in what have become inconsequential games for a team that's already locked into a first-round series with the Bruins? Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs (47-23-9) will likely face the Boston Bruins (47-23-9) in Round 1
  • John Tavares has 45 goals, 41 assists & 86 points in his first season with Toronto
  • The Maple Leafs odds have fallen drastically after losing 8 of their last 12 games

The latest 2019 Stanley Cup odds mean more now than they have all season as playoff matchups begin to take shape.  One thing that is being made very clear with the most recent odds available is that the Toronto Maple Leafs are fading, and fading fast.

Updated 2019 Stanley Cup Odds

Who will win the 2019 Stanley Cup? Odds
Tampa Bay Lightning +180
Calgary Flames +800
Boston Bruins +900
San Jose Sharks +1100
Washington Capitals +1200
St. Louis Blues +1300
Nashville Predators +1400
Winnipeg Jets +1400
Vegas Golden Knights +1500
New York Islanders +1600
Pittsburgh Penguins +1600
Toronto Maple Leafs +1700

*odds taken 4/1

It was only three weeks ago that the Maple Leafs were at +1100, and now they’ve fallen to 12th in the odds.

It’s been a rough stretch in Toronto, for sure, but there’s a case that the new odds create value on the Buds.  Here’s the case for why the Maple Leafs are worth a wager (as well as one other team on the board that’s worth your attention).

Maple Leafs Odds Don’t Match Their Talent

With the current playoff format in the NHL, it’s easy for teams to be lulled to sleep.  In the past, teams were constantly fighting for position, often until the final day of the season.  With this divisional format in place, the Leafs have effectively been locked into a first-round matchup with the Bruins for weeks now and it’s showing in their game.

With little to no chance of moving up or down in the standings, there has been a lack of intensity in their play.

The reality is, however, this team took those same Bruins to Game 7 last year and added a Rocket Richard candidate in John Tavares.

In addition to their new franchise center, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly are key pieces that make the Maple Leafs a good bet to beat Boston in Round 1.

Of course, even if Toronto makes it to Round 2, a date with the Tampa Bay Lightning likely looms, but in the NHL playoffs anything is possible, especially with a roster this talented. The Presidents Trophy-winning team has only won the Stanley Cup once in the past ten years (2012-13 Blackhawks).

Don’t focus so much on losing a handful of inconsequential games; focus more on the value being added.

Focus on the Flames out West

The Maple Leafs, Bruins and Lightning are all set to collide in the opening two rounds in the Eastern Conference, and it’s tough to get a gauge on who will survive.

If you lean towards Tampa Bay, like most do, they’re only paying +180 to win the Stanley Cup. That’s a tough wager to make.

A popular play is looking out West to find a team with a much easier path. After locking up the Pacific Division and top seed in the West, the Calgary Flames are the play at +800.

With the Conference locked up, they’ll play the second Wild Card out West. Whether the Avalanche or Coyotes grab the final playoff spot, the Flames will be major favorites in their opening series.

In Round 2, they’d face the winner of San Jose vs Vegas, which is likely to be a long physical series.  It really is a less arduous road than what the East has to offer.

The home-ice advantage is no joke, either. The Flames are 26-9-5 at the Saddledome this year and will play four of seven in their own barn in every series unless/until they face the Lightning in the Cup final.  They are second in the odds but still paying +800, which, like the Maple Leafs at +1700, is great value.

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