- Elon Musk has avoided arrest in his controversial move to reopen the Tesla factory in Fremont, California
- Musk’s success has boosted the company’s stock price, but not diminished the odds of a possible relocation to Texas
- Will Musk’s luck run out as the COVID-19 pandemic continues? Get all the odds in the story below
Officials in Alameda County have given into to the demands of Elon Musk to reopen Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California. But if the innovative carmaker does end up moving its operations, Texas remains a short favorite to be the company’s new home, sporting -200 odds.
Odds on the State of Tesla’s Relocation
Odds taken 05/14/20 – must announce relocation from California before January 1, 2021.
Musk’s Brinkmanship Pays Off, For Now
Impatient with the slow, cautious approach taken by public officials in California, Musk has quickly moved forward with his plans to ramp up operations at company facilities in the state, leaving the 48-year-old billionaire potentially facing arrest and criminal charges for violating shelter-in-place orders.
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 13, 2020
Reports out of Texas suggest Governor Greg Abbott has already discussed the possibility of relocation with Musk, who has grown increasingly frustrated with how the company has been treated in the Golden State.
Nevada is reportedly also part of Musk’s plans for the company’s future. Tesla’s CEO has mentioned the state as a preferred destination for some of the company’s operations, adding fuel to its position as a +150 second-favorite to be the home to its headquarters.
Of further concern to politicians and workers in California has been the late emergence of Georgia as a potential destination, with a move to the Peachtree State pegged as a +500 bet.
Tesla Stock Price as of 4:00 PM ET on May 15
Long-Term Future in California Far from Certain
While Wednesday’s decision to allow Tesla to move forward with its reopening defuses the volatile situation for the moment, the company’s long-term future in California is far from certain. The state is not yet out of the woods after experiencing some of the widest outbreaks of COVID-19 during the current coronavirus pandemic.
California hands away 30k jobs
A short story in 4 pictures
1) Alameda County says Tesla shouldn’t reopen
2) Elon says Tesla will file a lawsuit immediately
3) This labor leader dem from Cali tweets “Fuck Elon Musk”
4) Elon Musk: “Message received”
Lol Cali doing a great job! pic.twitter.com/ZqOeVm3xgI
— Adam Patel (@adampatel23) May 11, 2020
If California can avoid suffering through a second wave of infection without implementing more severe shelter-in-place orders, the relocation of Tesla before the start of 2021 could be avoided. But if Musk follows through on his threat to move the last carmaker currently based in California, expect the Lone Star State to be the big winner.
Temporary Peace Good News for Musk, Investors
The temporary peace that has been established between Tesla and public officials in California has also been a boost to the company’s stock price. After tumbling as low as $768.66 in Thursday trading on the NASDAQ exchange, Tesla stock rebounded to finish the day at $803.33. That bodes well for investors, and for bettors taking the OVER on whether the stock will close out the week at over $800, which pays out on -110 odds.
— DailyClose (@DailyCloseInc) May 14, 2020
- Tesla relocation state? Texas (-200)
- Tesla closing stock price on May 15: OVER $800 (-110)
Tesla Yes/No Props
|Prop||‘Yes’ Odds||‘No’ Odds|
|Will Elon Musk be arrested before June 1, 2020?||+725||-1400|
|Will Elon Musk step down as Tesla CEO before January 1 2021?||+800||-2500|
|Will Tesla workers unionize before January 1, 2021?||+700||-2000|
The deal to restart production at Tesla’s Fremont facility averts the media circus that would result if Musk were to be arrested for violating public health orders. Earlier in the week, Musk tweeted his desire for the state to spare Tesla workers, taking full responsibility for the decision and asking that he be the target of any police action.
Tesla is restarting production today against Alameda County rules. I will be on the line with everyone else. If anyone is arrested, I ask that it only be me.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 11, 2020
But with the state now backing down, the odds of Musk being arrested before June 1 are a lengthy and unattractive +725. The victory over state officials has also likely cemented Musk’s perch as Tesla CEO. Musk resigned as Chairman of Tesla in 2018 after facing fraud charges related to claims he made about taking the company private.
Labor Movement Targeting Tesla?
Musk has also been the target of criticism from key figures in the labor movement for the decision to reopen the Tesla facility. That includes the California Labor Federation, with representatives of the organization suggesting the move puts workers at risk.
— OBSERVER (@observer) May 14, 2020
However, with Musk putting the decision to return to work back into the hands of Tesla workers, who are free to stay off the job if they do not feel comfortable in go back on the line, there is little value to be found in the +700 odds of company workers unionizing before January 1.
- Will Musk be arrested? No (-1400)
- Will Musk step down as Tesla CEO? No (-2500)
- Will tesla employees unionize? No (-2000)
Let's have fun and keep it civil.