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Odds on What You Can Expect From AppleTV+, Apple Card & Other Services Announced at Apple Event

JJ De La Torre

by JJ De La Torre in News

Updated Mar 26, 2019 · 11:05 AM PDT

Tim Cook
Tim Cook is expecting big things from AppleTV+. Photo by iphonedigital (flickr) [CC License].
  • Apple’s AppleTV+ streaming service is scheduled to debut this fall
  • The service will include original content, similar to Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime
  • Interest is percolating while Apple is set to reveal many of AppleTV+’s finer details

Apple, already well known for their big format company announcements, went outside the box this time.

Instead of focusing on which device or gadget will be the hot new thing, Apple is jumping on the streaming service bandwagon.

We have the odds on what consumers can expect from the company’s new streaming service as well as its other highly anticipated new products.

AppleTV+ Odds

AppleTV+ Details SBD Odds
Odds AppleTV+ ever includes Netflix 3/1
Odds AppleTV+ has more subscribers than Netflix by the end of 2020 3/2
Odds an AppleTV+ show wins an Emmy, Golden Globe, or Oscar in 2020 3/7
Odds AppleTV+ gains exclusive rights to Seinfeld or Friends 1/3
Odds you have to purchase an upgraded AppleTV by 2020 to continue accessing these services 4/1
Odds you have to purchase an actual Apple-made television by 2025 to continue accessing these services 7/3

Details of the AppleTV+ launch are still being worked out, but during the company-wide presentation, Apple is promising some big things.

Given Apple’s intention to create much of their own content themselves, it is doubtful at this point to see Netflix brought in under their umbrella. Netflix is already a behemoth in their own right, and it’s more likely to see them double down under the pressure of the AppleTV+ launch.

That said, Netflix may make themselves available to be included in AppleTV+ for the right price so long as they remain mostly autonomous.

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The Netflix Connection

Even with other streaming platforms out there, Netflix is still the one to watch. But Apple is a massive company with big sights. Apple has a chance to overtake Netflix’s share of subscribers, but it’s still unlikely it’ll happen quickly.

Streaming services are already taking over at the awards, though. Netflix’s Roma barely missed out on this year’s Best Picture at the Oscars. And given AppleTV+’s prediction of having brilliant original programming, it won’t be long before they’re cleaning up too.

What’s more likely is for Apple to undercut Netflix on the content they’re already streaming.

What’s more likely is for Apple to undercut Netflix on the content they’re already streaming. A show like Friends is a big coup to have on any network, and if Apple throws a bit more money on the table, we may see it move over from Netflix to Apple.

Staying Smart

Apple is famous for its exclusive charging cables, short shelf lives of devices, and for forcing their consumers to turn over product in quick spurts. Will these trends carry over to AppleTV+?

Probably, but certainly not so quickly. Apple will want to build up their fanbase over a few years, get them addicted to their content and convenience, and then let them know they have to buy a brand new Apple-branded television if they want to continue. Hey, it’s just marketing.

Odds on the Cost of Apple TV+

How Much Will Apple TV+ and Apple Arcade Cost Per Month? SBD Odds
Over/Under how much AppleTV+ costs per month $25
Over/Under how much Apple Arcade costs per month $20

Any Apple consumer can tell you their products are ridiculously expensive. But still, half the population is willing to walk around with telephones made of breakable glass that cost a thousand bucks a pop. Go figure.

Apple isn’t afraid to have a price tag higher than their competition in any other market, and it won’t differ here. They already have Apple fan boys losing their minds over this launch, and the thought of getting yuppies to pay $25 a month to see Oprah Winfrey, Steven Spielberg, and Reece Witherspoon on original content is going to go over just fine.

Apple isn’t afraid to have a price tag higher than their competition in any other market, and it won’t differ here.

Watch for Apple Arcade to be just a wee bit cheaper than the TV platform, but not by much.

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Odds on the Next Big Celebrity to Get a Show on AppleTV+

Who Will Be the Next Big Celebrity to Get a Show on AppleTV+? SBD Odds
Kate Winslet 4/1
Michelle Obama 17/3
Leonardo DiCaprio 9/1
Kim Kardashian 9/1
Tom Hanks 19/1
Dwayne Johnson 19/1
Bradley Cooper 19/1
James Franco 97/3
Martha Stewart 97/3
Sandra Bullock 49/1

We already know a few stars are on board for original Apple TV+ content, but who’s next? After the initial launch, Apple will still need to make a few big announcements about exciting, unique content to launch this platform.

We have seen stars like Sandra Bullock amp up Netflix, so it’s possible to see her brought over. But it’s way more likely for a massive name like Michelle Obama to be featured.

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Odds Donald Trump Refers to AppleNews+ as Fake News Before the End of 2019

Will Donald Trump Refers to AppleNews+ as Fake News Before the End of 2019? SBD Odds
Yes 9/1
No 1/9

Trump likes getting his nose in everywhere, but it’s pretty unlikely he’s going to touch this one. Apple tends to stay pretty politics-free, and leading into their launch, the only reason Trump would target them is if they do it first.

Apple wants those Republican consumers and they’re not going to poke the bear by putting any anti-Trump fare on their platform this early.

Apple wants those Republican consumers and they’re not going to poke the bear by putting any anti-Trump fare on their platform this early. Once they’ve built up a following though, it’ll be open season.

Apple Credit Card Odds

Odds on Apple Credit Card SBD Odds
Odds Apple credit card has more signups than the Fyre credit card in the first month 1/9
Odds Apple is caught selling Apple Card user information to third-parties 9/1
Odds you get a deal on AppleTV+, Apple News+, or Apple Arcade if you pay using Apple credit card 17/3
Odds iTunes / App Store will only accept Apple Card by 2022 4/1

Apple’s credit card launch is also a big announcement. Given the company’s status, it’s likely they’ll blow the Fyre credit card out of the water, but they won’t be stupid enough to sell their customers’ names to third-parties.

But Apple isn’t one to cut a deal. Rarely offering any sort of sales on their product, it’s doubtful they’ll offer a discount on Apple TV+ to their card holders. But there is a possibility they’ll limit other credit cards from even subscribing once they’ve built up a following.

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