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Olympic Medals Specials Odds – USA Favored to Win Most; Over/Under Set at 43.5 Golds

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in News

Jul 21, 2021 · 11:00 AM PDT

Olympic rings at night
The Olympic rings stand outside the Narita International Airport prior to the 2020 Summer Olympics, Saturday, July 10, 2021, near Tokyo. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
  • USA is a heavy -1200 favorite to win the most medals at this year’s Olympics
  • Japan’s over/under for gold medals is 27.5, despite never winning more than 16 at any Olympics
  • Read below for analysis, odds and best bets

The 2020 Olympics were one of many sporting casualties thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, but at long last the games are finally happening this week. Tokyo, Japan will host the world’s best athletes for two-plus weeks and there’s no shortage of prop bets to wager on.

You can bet on which country will win the most gold medals and total medals, as well as over/unders on medal counts for a select number of countries. USA has dominated the past six iterations of the Summer Olympics, so it’s no surprise to see them as heavy favorites this time around.

Olympic Medals Odds

Country Most Gold Odds Most Medal Odds
USA -1200 -1000
China +600 +450
Japan +2500 +5000
Great Britain +2500 +4000
Russian OC +2500 +2000
Germany +20000 +20000
Australia +20000 +20000
Netherlands +20000 +20000
France +25000 +25000
South Korea +50000 +50000
Canada +50000 +50000

Odds as of July 20th at DraftKings.

The Americans are the overwhelming chalk to claim the most gold and total medals, something they accomplished in both 2016 and 2012. They’ve won the most total medals in six straight Games, and the lone time they were bested in the gold medal department during that stretch was at the 2008 Beijing Summer Games by the host nation.

Gold Medals By Country

Country Over Odds Under Odds
Australia 12.5 (-130) 12.5 (+100)
Belgium 1.5 (-200) 1.5 (+150)
Canada 4.5 (-120) 4.5 (-120)
Denmark 1.5 (-145) 1.5 (-105)
France 10.5 (-125) 10.5 (-105)
Germany 12.5 (-115) 12.5 (-115)
Great Britain 14.5 (-115) 14.5 (-115)
Japan 27.5 (-160) 27.5 (+110)
Netherlands 12.5 (-115) 12.5 (-115)
Norway 2.5 (-155) 2.5 (+110)
Poland 3.5 (-115) 3.5 (-115)
Spain 6.5 (-150) 6.5 (+110)
Sweden 3.5 (-130) 3.5 (+100)
USA 43.5 (-115) 43.5 (-115)

Speaking of host nations, Japan’s gold medal over/under seems incredibly high at 27.5. The Japanese OC actually set the bar at 30 golds prior to the pandemic, despite the fact that Japan has never won more than 16 gold medals at any Olympic Games.

Athletes representing the host nation typically get a bump, but a 75% increase over their previous best seems far fetched. Japanese athletes won’t have the luxury of competing in front of the home crowd, as fans are banned at all Tokyo venues, as well as most outside locations.

Gracenote, a statistical analysis company that supplies projections for sports leagues all around the world, has Japan pegged for 26 golds, which makes their under price (+110) look awfully appealing.

Pick: Japan Under 27.5 Golds (+110)

Canada Can Exceed Expectations

Canada hasn’t exceeded four gold medals at the Summer Olympics since 1992, but there’s reason to believe they can go over that total this year. They’re sending 371 athletes to Tokyo, the most since the 1984 Olympics when they came home with 10 golds.

Of course, size doesn’t necessarily equal success, but there’s plenty of gold medal hopefuls among the contingent. Rosie MacLennan is seeking a third straight gold in trampoline, while Damian Warner is the world number one ranked decathlete this season.

In the pool, Kylie Masse is a two-time defending world champion in the 100 meter backstroke, and let’s not rule out Penny Oleksiak conjuring up more magic like she did in Rio in 2016 as a teenager.

On the track, Andre De Grasse is a three-time medalist, one of the top sprinters in the world at both the 100 and 200 meter distance, and owner of the second shortest odds to win the 200m.

Not to be overlooked, Canada’s golf team is bound to make noise, as both Brooke Henderson and Corey Conners have the games to bring home the top prize. On the tennis court, Felix Auger-Aliassime is fresh off a deep Wimbledon run, and is one of the most exciting young players in the world.

Of course, other unheralded Canadian athletes are bound to sprout up and surprise as well. Canada brought home four gold medals in 2016, and the price of their talent exceeding that total this year is more than fair.

Pick: Canada Over 4.5 Golds (-120)

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