USA vs Canada Prediction, Best Bets & Start Time for Olympic Hockey Gold Medal Game (Feb. 22)

• I’ve made my USA vs Canada prediction for Sunday’s Olympic men’s hockey gold medal game
• Canada is a slight -122 favorite, but is there value on the American side at +102?
• See my USA vs Canada prediction and best bets below, plus projected lineups and start time for Sunday’s gold medal game

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This is it. The gold medal game we’ve all been waiting for. Team USA (5-0) faces Canada (5-0) Sunday morning in Milan with everything on the line. Both teams steamrolled through the tournament, but the paths diverged in the knockouts.

Canada needed overtime against Czechia and a last-minute goal to beat Finland 3-2 in the semis. The Americans beat Sweden in OT before blowing out Slovakia 6-2.

Full disclosure: I’m Canadian. But I don’t let bias creep into my betting advice, and right now I see this as close to a coin-flip game. Puck drop is 8:10 am ET from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena.

Here’s my USA vs Canada prediction and best bets, plus projected lineups and start time for Sunday’s gold medal game.

USA vs Canada Prediction

• USA ML (+102 at FanDuel)

My USA vs Canada prediction is the Americans to win the gold medal game at plus money. I view this as a 50/50 game with a slight lean toward the USA based on three things: depth, defense and goaltending.

This might be the best Team USA roster ever assembled. The scoring isn’t top-heavy. Brady Tkachuk, Jack Eichel and Matthew Tkachuk anchor the first line, while Jake Guentzel, Auston Matthews and Matt Boldy run the second.

Jack Hughes, Dylan Larkin and Tage Thompson give them a third line that would be a top-six on most teams. That kind of four-line balance can be the difference in a gold medal game where matchups shift constantly.

DYLAN LARKIN FLIES IN AND OPENS UP THE SCORING. 🇺🇸#WinterOlympics pic.twitter.com/Lmu8uuDeij

— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) February 18, 2026

Canada, by contrast, is leaning heavily on Connor McDavid, and the supporting cast has some real concerns. Sidney Crosby is a game-time decision after suffering a lower-body injury against Czechia. He reportedly practiced Saturday and Nick Suzuki said he “looked really good,” but even if he plays, he’s unlikely to be 100 percent.

Nathan MacKinnon has also looked a step off despite scoring some big goals. When your tournament plan was a three-headed monster down the middle and one head is missing while another is compromised, that changes things.

The American blueline is easily the best in this tournament. Quinn Hughes has been the best defenseman in Milan, logging over 23 minutes a night and leading the team with seven points. Zach Werenski, Jake Sanderson, Charlie McAvoy and Jaccob Slavin give head coach Mike Sullivan options to match up against anyone.

Slavin in particular could be the key to this game—he’s shut down McDavid in the NHL before, and I’d expect Sullivan to deploy him in that matchup whenever possible.

Then there’s the goaltending. Connor Hellebuyck has been the best goalie in the tournament with a .945 save percentage across five starts. He’s the reigning Vezina and Hart Trophy winner, and he looks completely locked in.

Binnington has his clutch reputation, and he outplayed Hellebuyck in the 4 Nations Face-Off final last year. But he’s also allowed some questionable goals this tournament, and I don’t see him stealing another game against a more talented goalie.

The 4 Nations matchup is a useful reference point. The USA won 3-1 in the round robin and nearly won the final too, taking a lead before Binnington locked the door in overtime. The Americans had the better looks and better chances in that extra period, and I don’t think they let it slip away again.

USA vs Canada Tournament Stats

That stats comparison is fascinating. Canada’s power play has been lethal at 43.75%, but the USA penalty kill has been perfect, killing off all 15 shorthanded situations this tournament. That collision is probably the single biggest factor in this game.

If the Americans stay disciplined and keep that PK intact, it neutralizes Canada’s most dangerous weapon. Both teams understand how lethal the other is with the man advantage, so I’d expect very few penalties and a game decided at five-on-five.

USA vs Canada Best Bets

• Under 5.5 Goals (-160 at FanDuel)

The juice is steep, but it’s steep for a reason. This is a gold medal game between the two best defensive teams in the tournament. Both have allowed just eight goals in five games. Open ice will be nearly impossible to find with everything on the line.

The 4 Nations Face-Off final is your template. That game finished 3-2 with just four goals scored in regulation. Both teams will be hyper-aware of the other’s power play, so discipline will be at a premium. Fewer penalties means more five-on-five hockey, where both teams are built to grind.

Hellebuyck and Binnington have both been sharp. If both goalies are on, this should land around 2-1 or 3-2. The books are clearly pricing it that way too, shading the under to -160 while the over sits at +130.

• Will There Be Overtime: Yes (+260 at FanDuel)

This isn’t a full-unit play, but it’s worth a sprinkle. The 4 Nations final went to overtime. Canada needed OT in both the quarterfinal and semifinal. Three of the four quarterfinals in this tournament went to extra time.

When two evenly matched teams play a gold medal game with this much at stake, overtime is always in play. Getting +260 on that is solid value.

USA vs Canada Projected Lineups

Team USA Projected Lines

Forwards:

Brady Tkachuk – Jack Eichel – Matthew Tkachuk
Jake Guentzel – Auston Matthews – Matt Boldy
Jack Hughes – Dylan Larkin – Tage Thompson
J.T. Miller – Brock Nelson – Vincent Trocheck

Defense:

Quinn Hughes – Charlie McAvoy
Jaccob Slavin – Brock Faber
Jake Sanderson – Zach Werenski
Noah Hanifin – Clayton Keller

Goalie: Connor Hellebuyck

Hellebuyck has been the best goalie in the tournament with a .945 save percentage, allowing just five goals on 90 shots in five starts. The American defense in front of him has been suffocating, and Hughes averaging over 23 minutes a night gives them an elite anchor on the blueline.

Team Canada Projected Lines

Forwards:

Macklin Celebrini – Connor McDavid – Nathan MacKinnon
Mitch Marner – Nick Suzuki – Mark Stone
Brad Marchand – Sam Bennett – Tom Wilson
Brandon Hagel – Bo Horvat – Seth Jarvis

Defense:

Devon Toews – Cale Makar
Thomas Harley – Colton Parayko
Travis Sanheim – Shea Theodore
Sam Reinhart – Drew Doughty

Goalie: Jordan Binnington

Binnington carries a .914 save percentage but has allowed some soft goals that could cost Canada against the deeper American attack. Crosby is a game-time decision and reportedly looked good at Saturday’s optional practice.

The Marchand-Bennett-Wilson line was assembled late in the Finland game and could be a factor. That physical combination softened up the Finnish defense and shifted momentum for Canada.

Updated USA vs Canada Odds

Canada opened at -118 and has drifted to -122, while the USA moved from -102 to +102. The line hasn’t shifted much, which confirms what the market already knows: this is as close to a coin flip as you’ll see in a gold medal game.

If you’re building a same-game parlay, the USA +1.5 at -265 is a strong anchor to throw in. The 60-minute three-way line also deserves a look: USA +160, draw +260, Canada +135.

This is the third time these rivals have met in an Olympic gold medal game. Canada won both previous meetings, in 2002 and 2010. Sunday also marks exactly 46 years to the day since the USA’s Miracle on Ice gold medal at the 1980 Lake Placid Games.

Odds as of Feb. 21 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out the best sports betting app for the Gold Medal Game.

USA vs Canada Start Time

Puck drop for the USA vs Canada gold medal game is 8:10 am ET (5:10 am PT) Sunday from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game airs on NBC and streams on Peacock in the United States. Canadian viewers can watch on CBC and CBC Gem.