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Odds to Win 2020 Iowa Democratic Caucuses: Warren Favored, Buttigieg Given Third-Best Odds

Elizabeth Warren speaks to an audience
Can Elizabeth Warren win the Iowa Caucus? She's currently favored at +107. Photo by Lorie Shaull (Wikipedia).
  • Elizabeth Warren trails by 0.3% in the Iowa polls
  • Pete Buttigieg is up 7% in Iowa, according to a Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll
  • Joe Biden just continues to fade across the board both nationally and in individual states

As Joe Biden has stumbled, Elizabeth Warren has shot up the board and proven to be a real contender for the Democratic Party nominee.

One of the first battlegrounds will be in the state of Iowa, where Warren is actually favored to win. She’s trailing slightly in the Iowa polls, but can she pull the small upset and win in the Hawkeye State?

Odds to Win 2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus

Nominee Odds
Elizabeth Warren +107
Joe Biden +245
Pete Buttigieg +250
Bernie Sanders +800
Kamala Harris +3000
Andrew Yang +5000

Odds taken 10/22/19.

Biden Hurt By Ukraine Situation, Gaffes

Former Vice President Joe Biden has had a rough campaign so far, and he’s been fading. Recent reports from CNBC have shown that he’s running out of money, which is an awful sign considering we’re not even through 2019.

He’s been fading for two main reasons: his gaffes on the trail and the Ukraine scandal. While he and his son may not have done anything illegal in Ukraine, it definitely looks like the former Vice President and his son benefited financially because of their positions. It’s been proven that he didn’t do anything illegal; however, the optics of the ethics are not great.

The second issue is Biden’s endless gaffes. He just sounds like someone who is losing it. From forgetting which states had mass shooters (days after the shootings), to making some statement about “clipping coupons in the stock market” at the latest debate, he just continues to hurt himself.

He’s gone from holding a huge lead in the national polls to holding just a four-point lead over Warren in those same polls. In Iowa, his lead is down to just 0.3% and Warren actually leads by a sizeable margin in New Hampshire. Things are trending in the wrong direction for Biden.

Iowa Is Three-Way Race as Buttigieg Jumps Seven Points

Mayor Pete Buttigieg was initially a longshot to win the Democratic Nominee but after a number of decent debate performances, he’s not in the running. What’s interesting is that while Warren and Bernie Sanders pull the party to the left, Mayor Pete has become the best option as a moderate.

The most recent Suffolk University/USA Today Poll found that Mayor Pete jumped up seven points in Iowa from when this poll was last done in June. The latest numbers have Biden at 18%, Warren at 17% and Buttigieg at 13%. At last check in June, Buttigieg was at 6%.

What helps Mayor Pete’s cause is that 29% of voters are still undecided. On top of that, 63% say they might change their mind before the Iowa Caucuses. This race is still wide open.

Can Warren Bring Home the Win?

It’s one thing to be leading in the polls, it’s another thing to actually start sealing some wins and putting the numbers on the board. The first stop will be in Iowa where Warren can go from being a possibility to being a reality for the Democratic Party.

At this point, I don’t see why she wouldn’t win in Iowa. There are still three months to go until the Iowa Caucus and Biden is fading. He hasn’t impressed anyone at the debates and that has a lot of people nervous that he’ll get smoked by Donald Trump in a head-to-head battle if he were to make it to the general.

Warren is campaigning hard in Iowa right now as she knows just how important this first win might be. She’s the best bet of the bunch to win in Iowa as of right now.

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