Andrew Yang Ahead of Pete Buttigieg in Democratic Nomination Odds

• Andrew Yang (+1200) is ahead of Pete Buttigieg (+1400) in their 2020 Democratic Presidential odds
• However, Buttigieg still has better odds, on average, than Yang
• Yang was recently endorsed by SpaceX founder Elon Musk

Is the Andrew Yang Gang ganging up on Pete Buttigieg?

Sportsbooks would seem to be of that opinion.

Oddsmakers have lowered their odds on Yang winning the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination. He’s at +1200, putting him ahead of Buttigieg for the first time.

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Odds

*Odds taken on 08/14/19. 

Taking into account a number of the top online sportsbooks, overall, Buttigieg (+1000) still maintains an advantage over Yang (+1400) in the Democratic Nomination odds.

Is Yang 2020’s Bernie?

In 2016, Bernie Sanders made hay in the Democratic Presidential race. He cast himself as the outsider, even though he’d served in the US Senate since 2007, albeit as an Independent. Young people were drawn to his socialist platform.

This time around, Yang appears to be capturing that energy. He truly is a Washington outsider. Heck, he’s a political outsider. Yang’s never held any elected position prior to running for President. That factor didn’t seem to hurt the guy who won in 2016.

I can’t tell you how much I appreciate those who joined the #YangGang before it was cool. You all are early adopters. Next up – the early mainstream. 😀👍

— Andrew Yang🧢⬆️🇺🇸 (@AndrewYang) August 14, 2019

His Universal Basic Income (UBI) plan is definitely resonating with young people. It would see the government cut checks for $1000 each month to every American 18 or older. Funding would be provided via a tax on corporations.

It doesn’t appear to hold the same sway across all demographics, however. Polling by FiveThirtyEight shows that just 48 percent of Americans and 65 percent of Democrats see UBI as a good idea.

Yang’s popularity with youth is his strongest suit. He’s extremely popular on Reddit and Twitter. Those social media sites are dominated by a younger audience.

Ten percent of the eligible electorate in 2020 will be 23 or younger.

Is Buttigieg Slipping?

No one has ever gone from mayor to President in one step, as Buttigieg is trying to do. Lately, there’s been some evidence that Mayor Pete may have bitten off more than he can chew.

WATCH: Mayor Pete Buttigieg rides the giant slide at the Iowa State Fair pic.twitter.com/WKg7PB0I3C

— The Hill (@thehill) August 14, 2019

Buttigieg hit on his best odds to win the nomination on April 25th when he was at +350.  Those odds have steadily grown longer ever since. He was +480 on May 13 and +580 on June 5. By July 13, he’d hit +630.

Buttigieg slipped to +900 by the end of July and then to his current average odds of +1000.

“I shook Robert Kennedy’s hand in 1968,” a woman tells Pete Buttigieg. “So you’re good luck?” he asks. “Not really— he was shot a month later,” she tells him. pic.twitter.com/RiW0fw1uwB

— DJ Judd (@DJJudd) August 13, 2019

Why the slippage? People fell in love with Mayor Pete’s charisma. As he made more public appearances, the cult of personality enabled him to soar.

More issues have since come under scrutiny from his time as Mayor of South Bend, Indiana. Evidence has been provided of mistakes he made there due to inexperience. As well, issues with African-American community have come  light.

In With A Chance?

Could Yang or Buttigieg be President in 2020?

That seems very unlikely.

It might be too soon to write off a top-six candidate prior to primary season. Still, the current numbers don’t support either man owning a realistic chance to move into the White House in January of 2021.

2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Polls

There’s no state where either candidate rates higher than fifth in current polling.

As a result, placing a wager at this point on either Yang or Buttigieg would also be a UBI – a universally bad investment.