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  • See where the odds to win the 2024 Democratic nomination currently stand
  • As of August 2023, President Joe Biden has become a massive betting favorite to earn the nomination in 2024, while Gavin Newsom has become the second-favorite
  • See the 2024 Democratic nomination odds for all the candidates in the running

In a rare occurrence, the incumbent President  opened as an underdog to win the party nomination in 2024. President Joe Biden found himself second to Vice President Kamala Harris in the early line to be the 2024 Democratic nominee. The lines, however, have shifted and President Biden is once again favored.

The graphs below show how the average odds have changed over time.

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2024 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds

  • Aug. 16, 2023: Biden’s 2024 Democratic nominee odds have faded from -425 to -328 over the summer, while Gavin Newsom (+600) has overtaken Robert Kennedy Jr (+950) as the second-favorite.
  • May 30, 2023: Biden is now -425 to win the 2024 nomination, with anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a distant second at +1000.
  • Feb. 15, 2023: Incumbent Biden has become the presumptive nominee, now sitting at -188 roughly a year away from the first Democratic primary.
  • Dec. 20, 2021: Vice-President Harris continues to fade, now sitting at +195. She was +148 in early November. Among the longshots, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown made the biggest gains (from +5000 to +3750).
  • Nov. 1, 2021: Biden widened his lead on Vice-President Harris.
  • Sep. 20, 2021: Beto O’Rourke improved from +4700 to +3700, putting him in the top ten.
  • Sep. 1, 2021: Biden faded from +120 to +153 in the wake of withdrawing from Afghanistan. Harris also faded slightly from +165 to +170 as the entire administration has attracted negative press.
  • Aug. 2, 2021: Biden’s lead over Harris  has grown to +125 vs +165. Michelle Obama (+1500) surged into third, ahead of Elizabeth Warren, who faded from +1500 to +2000.
  • June 25, 2021: Joe Biden (+123) now has a small edge on Harris (+140) with Warren a distant third at +1500.
  • May 14, 2021: Biden (+160) and Harris (+158) shortened resulting in the second-tier candidates – Ocasio-Cortez (+1600), Buttigieg (+1700), Warren (+2650) – fading slightly.
  • May 7, 2021: Biden and Harris are back to level at +182. Pete Buttigieg improved from +1800 to +1667 (fourth-favorite) and Elizabeth Warren faded from +1600 to +2167 (now the fifth-favorite).
  • Apr. 15, 2021: Vice-President Kamala Harris (+175) continues to sit just ahead of incumbent Joe Biden (+200). Both are trending shorter. Former Minnesota Senator Al Franken – who resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct – has popped up at +3300.
  • Feb. 17, 2021: The only notable movement is Biden (+238 to +225) and Harris (+225 to +200) getting a little shorter while third-favorite Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faded from +950 to +1050.
  • Jan. 27, 2021: The odds have not changed over the past week.
  • Jan. 22, 2021: AOC (+950) and Michelle Obama (+1300), the third and fourth-favorites, both got longer after the Biden/Harris inauguration.
  • Jan. 8, 2021: President-elect Biden continues to see his odds shorten, going from +375 to +238, overtaking his VEEP, Kamala Harris (+250), in the process.
  • Dec. 10. 2020: Joe Biden (+375)  is closing in on his own VEEP, Kamala Harris (+300), at the top of the 2024 Democratic nomination odds.
  • Nov. 26, 2020: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez now has the third-best odds, improving from +1000 to +675 and moving in front of Andrew Yang (+800).
  • Nov. 6, 2020: Kamala (+250) Harris is favored – by a wide margin – to be the 2024 Democratic nominee while President-elect Joe Biden is a distant second at +700.

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

Candidate Odds
Joe Biden -330
Gavin Newsom +600
Robert Kennedy Jr +900
Kamala Harris +1600
Michelle Obama +1600
Hillary Clinton +3500
Gretchen Whitmer +6500
Pete Buttigieg +6500
Tulsi Gabbard +6500
Bernie Sanders Susan Rice +8000
Elizabeth Warren +8000
Michael Bloomberg +8000
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +10000
Amy Klobuchar +10000
Andrew Yang +10000
Meghan Markle +10000

Odds as of August 28, 2023, at DraftKings Sportsbook

Past Democratic Party Nominees

Year Name Popular Vote Percentage
2020 Joe Biden* 50.8%
2016 Hillary Clinton 48.2%
2012 Barack Obama* 51.1%
2008 Barack Obama* 52.9%
2004 John Kerry 48.3%
2000 Al Gore 48.4%
1996 Bill Clinton* 49.2%
1992 Bill Clinton* 43.0%
1988 Michael Dukakis 45.7%
1984 Walter Mondale 40.6%
1980 Jimmy Carter 41.0%

*Elected President of the United States

Bill Clinton received only 43% of the popular vote in 1992 but still managed to win the presidency as independent candidate Ross Perot garnered close to 20 million votes. It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the election while falling short of the 50% threshold.


Archived Democratic nomination odds: 2020

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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.