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  • See where the odds to win the 2024 Democratic currently stand
  • President Joe Biden is now favored to earn the nomination four years from now
  • Vice President Kamala Harris had the shortest odds when they first opened

In a rare occurrence, the incumbent President  opened as an underdog to win the party nomination in four years’ time. President Joe Biden found himself second to Vice President Kamala Harris in the early line to be the 2024 Democratic nominee. The lines, however, are shifting, as longterm political futures are wont to do.

The graphs below show how the average odds have changed over time.

2024 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds

  • Sep. 1, 2021: Biden faded from +153 to +170 in the wake of withdrawing from Afghanistan. Harris also faded slightly from +165 to +170 as the entire administration has attracted negative press.
  • Aug. 2, 2021: Biden’s lead over Harris  has grown to +125 vs +165. Michelle Obama (+1500) surged into third, ahead of Elizabeth Warren, who faded from +1500 to +2000.
  • June 25, 2021: Joe Biden (+123) now has a small edge on Harris (+140) with Warren a distant third at +1500.
  • May 14, 2021: Biden (+160) and Harris (+158) shortened resulting in the second-tier candidates – Ocasio-Cortez (+1600), Buttigieg (+1700), Warren (+2650) – fading slightly.
  • May 7, 2021: Biden and Harris are back to level at +182. Pete Buttigieg improved from +1800 to +1667 (fourth-favorite) and Elizabeth Warren faded from +1600 to +2167 (now the fifth-favorite).
  • Apr. 15, 2021: Vice-President Kamala Harris (+175) continues to sit just ahead of incumbent Joe Biden (+200). Both are trending shorter. Former Minnesota Senator Al Franken – who resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct – has popped up at +3300.
  • Feb. 17, 2021: The only notable movement is Biden (+238 to +225) and Harris (+225 to +200) getting a little shorter while third-favorite Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faded from +950 to +1050.
  • Jan. 27, 2021: The odds have not changed over the past week.
  • Jan. 22, 2021: AOC (+950) and Michelle Obama (+1300), the third and fourth-favorites, both got longer after the Biden/Harris inauguration.
  • Jan. 8, 2021: President-elect Biden continues to see his odds shorten, going from +375 to +238, overtaking his VEEP, Kamala Harris (+250), in the process.
  • Dec. 10. 2020: Joe Biden (+375)  is closing in on his own VEEP, Kamala Harris (+300), at the top of the 2024 Democratic nomination odds.
  • Nov. 26, 2020: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez now has the third-best odds, improving from +1000 to +675 and moving in front of Andrew Yang (+800).
  • Nov. 6, 2020: Kamala (+250) Harris is favored – by a wide margin – to be the 2024 Democratic nominee while President-elect Joe Biden is a distant second at +700.

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

Candidate Odds
Joe Biden +153
Kamala Harris +170
Elizabeth Warren +1867
Michelle Obama +1933
Amy Klobuchar +2467
Ayanna Pressley +2500
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +2600
Pete Buttigieg +2800
Al Franken +3300
Cory Booker +3433
Michael Bloomberg +3750
Bernie Sanders +3833
Beto O’Rourke +4700
Gretchen Whitmer +4967
Gavin Newsom +5000
Hillary Clinton +5000

Odds as of Sep. 1, 2021. 

Past Democratic Party Nominees

Year Name Popular Vote Percentage
2020 Joe Biden* 50.8%
2016 Hillary Clinton 48.2%
2012 Barack Obama* 51.1%
2008 Barack Obama* 52.9%
2004 John Kerry 48.3%
2000 Al Gore 48.4%
1996 Bill Clinton* 49.2%
1992 Bill Clinton* 43.0%
1988 Michael Dukakis 45.7%
1984 Walter Mondale 40.6%
1980 Jimmy Carter 41.0%

*Elected President of the United States

Bill Clinton received only 43% of the popular vote in 1992 but still managed to win the presidency as independent candidate Ross Perot garnered close to 20 million votes. It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the election while falling short of the 50% threshold.


Archived Democratic nomination odds: 2020

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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has now been an assigning editor, writer, and lead oddsmaker for SBD for over five years. He covers everything you can possibly put odds on, but specializes in football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.