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  • See where the odds to win the 2024 Democratic currently stand
  • President-elect Joe Biden is not favored to earn the nomination four years from now
  • Vice President-elect Kamala Harris opened as the chalk

In a rare occurrence, the incumbent President has opened as an underdog to win the party nomination in four years’ time. President-elect Joe Biden found himself second to Vice President-elect Kamala Harris in the early line to be the 2024 Democratic nominee.

The graph below shows how the average odds have changed over time.

2024 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds


  • Nov. 6, 2020: Kamala (+250) Harris is favored – by a wide margin – to be the 2024 Democratic nominee while President-elect Joe Biden is a distant second at +700.

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

Candidate Odds
Kamala Harris +275
Joe Biden +600
Andrew Yang +800
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +1000
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Michelle Obama +1100
Bernie Sanders +1200
Pete Buttigieg +1200
Stacey Abrams +1200
Andrew Cuomo +1400
Elizabeth Warren +1500
Mark Cuban +2000
Michael Bloomberg +2000
Amy Klobuchar +2500
Cory Booker +2500
Gretchen Whitmer +2500

Odds as of Nov. 12, 2020. 

Past Democratic Party Nominees

Year Name Popular Vote Percentage
2020 Joe Biden* 50.8%
2016 Hillary Clinton 48.2%
2012 Barack Obama* 51.1%
2008 Barack Obama* 52.9%
2004 John Kerry 48.3%
2000 Al Gore 48.4%
1996 Bill Clinton* 49.2%
1992 Bill Clinton* 43.0%
1988 Michael Dukakis 45.7%
1984 Walter Mondale 40.6%
1980 Jimmy Carter 41.0%

*Elected President of the United States

Bill Clinton received only 43% of the popular vote in 1992 but still managed to win the presidency as independent candidate Ross Perot garnered close to 20 million votes. It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the election while falling short of the 50% threshold.

Archived Democratic nomination odds: 2020

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Sascha has been the Lead Oddsmaker for SBD for over four years, specializing in football, baseball, hockey, and basketball. He has been featured on USA Today's Draft Wire, Fansided, Chicago Tribune, Newsweek, and numerous additional local and national publications.