2024 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds Tracker
- See where the odds to win the 2024 Democratic currently stand
- President Joe Biden is now favored to earn the nomination four years from now
- Vice President Kamala Harris had the shortest odds when they first opened
In a rare occurrence, the incumbent President opened as an underdog to win the party nomination in four years’ time. President Joe Biden found himself second to Vice President Kamala Harris in the early line to be the 2024 Democratic nominee. The lines, however, are shifting, as longterm political futures are wont to do.
The graphs below show how the average odds have changed over time.
2024 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds
- Feb. 17, 2021: The only notable movement is Biden (+238 to +225) and Harris (+225 to +200) getting a little shorter while third-favorite Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faded from +950 to +1050.
- Jan. 27, 2021: The odds have not changed over the past week.
- Jan. 22, 2021: AOC (+950) and Michelle Obama (+1300), the third and fourth-favorites, both got longer after the Biden/Harris inauguration.
- Jan. 8, 2021: President-elect Biden continues to see his odds shorten, going from +375 to +238, overtaking his VEEP, Kamala Harris (+250), in the process.
- Dec. 10. 2020: Joe Biden (+375) is closing in on his own VEEP, Kamala Harris (+300), at the top of the 2024 Democratic nomination odds.
- Nov. 26, 2020: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez now has the third-best odds, improving from +1000 to +675 and moving in front of Andrew Yang (+800).
- Nov. 6, 2020: Kamala (+250) Harris is favored – by a wide margin – to be the 2024 Democratic nominee while President-elect Joe Biden is a distant second at +700.
2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | +200 |
| Joe Biden | +225 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | +1050 |
| Michelle Obama | +1300 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +1600 |
| Andrew Yang | +1800 |
| Elizabeth Warren | +1850 |
| Bernie Sanders | +2050 |
| Andrew Cuomo | +2200 |
| Stacey Abrams | +2350 |
| Michael Bennet | +2750 |
| Amy Klobuchar | +2900 |
| Cory Booker | +2900 |
| Deval Patrick | +3000 |
| Michael Bloomberg | +3000 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +3000 |
Odds as of Feb. 17, 2021.
Past Democratic Party Nominees
| Year | Name | Popular Vote Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Joe Biden* | 50.8% |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 48.2% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama* | 51.1% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama* | 52.9% |
| 2004 | John Kerry | 48.3% |
| 2000 | Al Gore | 48.4% |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton* | 49.2% |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton* | 43.0% |
| 1988 | Michael Dukakis | 45.7% |
| 1984 | Walter Mondale | 40.6% |
| 1980 | Jimmy Carter | 41.0% |
*Elected President of the United States
Bill Clinton received only 43% of the popular vote in 1992 but still managed to win the presidency as independent candidate Ross Perot garnered close to 20 million votes. It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the election while falling short of the 50% threshold.
Archived Democratic nomination odds: 2020
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has now been an assigning editor, writer, and lead oddsmaker for SBD for over five years. He covers everything you can possibly put odds on, but specializes in football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.
