2024 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds Tracker

• Joe Biden has dropped out of the running for the 2024 Democratic nomination
• Vice President Kamala Harris now heavily favored over the likes of Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, Gretchen Whitmer, and Gavin Newsom
• See the 2024 Democratic nomination odds for all the candidates in the running

In an unprecedented occurrence, incumbent President  Joe Biden recently announced he will not seek re-election. Vice President Kamala Harris is the new favorite to be the 2024 Democratic nominee. But the lines have been shifting dramatically recently.

The graphs below show how the average odds have changed over time.

2024 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds

Kamala Harris is currently favored to win the 2024 Democratic nomination after Joe Biden officially exited the race and endorsed his current VP as his replacement on the 2024 Democratic ticket.

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2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

Odds as of July 23 at bet365. 

• July 23, 2024: Harris reportedly has the support of over half of the DNC delegates and her odds to win the nomination have shortened to -3300.
• July 21, 2024: Biden has dropped out of the race! Kamala Harris is -400 to win the Democratic nomination after Biden endorsed her as his replacement on the ticket. Michelle Obama and Gretchen Whitmer are co-second-favorites at a distant +1200.
• July 18, 2024: After Biden tested positive for COVID, his odds plummeted to +250 while Harris has improved to -200 to win the 2024 Democratic nomination.
• July 7, 2024: Despite Biden’s insistence that he is running, the odds have flipped back and Vice President Harris is once again the slight favorite to win the 2024 Democratic Party nomination.
• July 4, 2024: After a brief stint as an underdog, Joe Biden is back to being the slight favorite to be the Dem nominee. Biden is holding onto a slim lead at +125 versus Kamala Harris’ +150 odds.
• July 3, 2024: In a surprise turn of events, Kamala Harris has become the new favorite to be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 Presidential Election. Harris’ odds improved from +500 to +110, while Biden’s faded from -188 to +200.
• June 27, 2024: After a poor performance in the debate against Trump, Biden’s odds to win the Democratic nominee quickly tanked. He still remained the favorite, but more movement is likely to come.
• Aug. 16, 2023: Biden’s 2024 Democratic nominee odds have faded from -425 to -328 over the summer, while Gavin Newsom (+600) has overtaken Robert Kennedy Jr (+950) as the second-favorite.
• May 30, 2023: Biden is now -425 to win the 2024 nomination, with anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a distant second at +1000.
• Feb. 15, 2023: Incumbent Biden has become the presumptive nominee, now sitting at -188 roughly a year away from the first Democratic primary.
• Dec. 20, 2021: Vice President Harris continues to fade, now sitting at +195. She was +148 in early November. Among the longshots, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown made the biggest gains (from +5000 to +3750).
• Nov. 1, 2021: Biden widened his lead on Vice President Harris.
• Sep. 20, 2021: Beto O’Rourke improved from +4700 to +3700, putting him in the top ten.
• Sep. 1, 2021: Biden faded from +120 to +153 in the wake of withdrawing from Afghanistan. Harris also faded slightly from +165 to +170 as the entire administration has attracted negative press.
• Aug. 2, 2021: Biden’s lead over Harris  has grown to +125 vs +165. Michelle Obama (+1500) surged into third, ahead of Elizabeth Warren, who faded from +1500 to +2000.
• June 25, 2021: Joe Biden (+123) now has a small edge on Harris (+140) with Warren a distant third at +1500.
• May 14, 2021: Biden (+160) and Harris (+158) shortened resulting in the second-tier candidates – Ocasio-Cortez (+1600), Buttigieg (+1700), Warren (+2650) – fading slightly.
• May 7, 2021: Biden and Harris are back to level at +182. Pete Buttigieg improved from +1800 to +1667 (fourth-favorite) and Elizabeth Warren faded from +1600 to +2167 (now the fifth-favorite).
• Apr. 15, 2021: Vice President Kamala Harris (+175) continues to sit just ahead of incumbent Joe Biden (+200). Both are trending shorter. Former Minnesota Senator Al Franken – who resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct – has popped up at +3300.
• Feb. 17, 2021: The only notable movement is Biden (+238 to +225) and Harris (+225 to +200) getting a little shorter while third-favorite Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faded from +950 to +1050.
• Jan. 27, 2021: The odds have not changed over the past week.
• Jan. 22, 2021: AOC (+950) and Michelle Obama (+1300), the third and fourth-favorites, both got longer after the Biden/Harris inauguration.
• Jan. 8, 2021: President-elect Biden continues to see his odds shorten, going from +375 to +238, overtaking his VEEP, Kamala Harris (+250), in the process.
• Dec. 10. 2020: Joe Biden (+375)  is closing in on his own VEEP, Kamala Harris (+300), at the top of the 2024 Democratic nomination odds.
• Nov. 26, 2020: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez now has the third-best odds, improving from +1000 to +675 and moving in front of Andrew Yang (+800).
• Nov. 6, 2020: Kamala (+250) Harris is favored – by a wide margin – to be the 2024 Democratic nominee while President-elect Joe Biden is a distant second at +700.

Past Democratic Party Nominees

*Elected President of the United States

Bill Clinton received only 43% of the popular vote in 1992 but still managed to win the presidency as independent candidate Ross Perot garnered close to 20 million votes. It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the election while falling short of the 50% threshold.

Archived Democratic nomination odds: 2020