2024 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds Tracker
Updated August 28, 2023 | Author: Sascha Paruk
- See where the odds to win the 2024 Democratic nomination currently stand
- As of August 2023, President Joe Biden has become a massive betting favorite to earn the nomination in 2024, while Gavin Newsom has become the second-favorite
- See the 2024 Democratic nomination odds for all the candidates in the running
In a rare occurrence, the incumbent President opened as an underdog to win the party nomination in 2024. President Joe Biden found himself second to Vice President Kamala Harris in the early line to be the 2024 Democratic nominee. The lines, however, have shifted and President Biden is once again favored.
The graphs below show how the average odds have changed over time.
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2024 Democratic Party Presidential Nominee Odds
- Aug. 16, 2023: Biden’s 2024 Democratic nominee odds have faded from -425 to -328 over the summer, while Gavin Newsom (+600) has overtaken Robert Kennedy Jr (+950) as the second-favorite.
- May 30, 2023: Biden is now -425 to win the 2024 nomination, with anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a distant second at +1000.
- Feb. 15, 2023: Incumbent Biden has become the presumptive nominee, now sitting at -188 roughly a year away from the first Democratic primary.
- Dec. 20, 2021: Vice-President Harris continues to fade, now sitting at +195. She was +148 in early November. Among the longshots, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown made the biggest gains (from +5000 to +3750).
- Nov. 1, 2021: Biden widened his lead on Vice-President Harris.
- Sep. 20, 2021: Beto O’Rourke improved from +4700 to +3700, putting him in the top ten.
- Sep. 1, 2021: Biden faded from +120 to +153 in the wake of withdrawing from Afghanistan. Harris also faded slightly from +165 to +170 as the entire administration has attracted negative press.
- Aug. 2, 2021: Biden’s lead over Harris has grown to +125 vs +165. Michelle Obama (+1500) surged into third, ahead of Elizabeth Warren, who faded from +1500 to +2000.
- June 25, 2021: Joe Biden (+123) now has a small edge on Harris (+140) with Warren a distant third at +1500.
- May 14, 2021: Biden (+160) and Harris (+158) shortened resulting in the second-tier candidates – Ocasio-Cortez (+1600), Buttigieg (+1700), Warren (+2650) – fading slightly.
- May 7, 2021: Biden and Harris are back to level at +182. Pete Buttigieg improved from +1800 to +1667 (fourth-favorite) and Elizabeth Warren faded from +1600 to +2167 (now the fifth-favorite).
- Apr. 15, 2021: Vice-President Kamala Harris (+175) continues to sit just ahead of incumbent Joe Biden (+200). Both are trending shorter. Former Minnesota Senator Al Franken – who resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct – has popped up at +3300.
- Feb. 17, 2021: The only notable movement is Biden (+238 to +225) and Harris (+225 to +200) getting a little shorter while third-favorite Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faded from +950 to +1050.
- Jan. 27, 2021: The odds have not changed over the past week.
- Jan. 22, 2021: AOC (+950) and Michelle Obama (+1300), the third and fourth-favorites, both got longer after the Biden/Harris inauguration.
- Jan. 8, 2021: President-elect Biden continues to see his odds shorten, going from +375 to +238, overtaking his VEEP, Kamala Harris (+250), in the process.
- Dec. 10. 2020: Joe Biden (+375) is closing in on his own VEEP, Kamala Harris (+300), at the top of the 2024 Democratic nomination odds.
- Nov. 26, 2020: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez now has the third-best odds, improving from +1000 to +675 and moving in front of Andrew Yang (+800).
- Nov. 6, 2020: Kamala (+250) Harris is favored – by a wide margin – to be the 2024 Democratic nominee while President-elect Joe Biden is a distant second at +700.
2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -330 |
| Gavin Newsom | +600 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr | +900 |
| Kamala Harris | +1600 |
| Michelle Obama | +1600 |
| Hillary Clinton | +3500 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +6500 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +6500 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +6500 |
| Bernie Sanders Susan Rice | +8000 |
| Elizabeth Warren | +8000 |
| Michael Bloomberg | +8000 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | +10000 |
| Amy Klobuchar | +10000 |
| Andrew Yang | +10000 |
| Meghan Markle | +10000 |
Odds as of August 28, 2023, at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Past Democratic Party Nominees
| Year | Name | Popular Vote Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Joe Biden* | 50.8% |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 48.2% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama* | 51.1% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama* | 52.9% |
| 2004 | John Kerry | 48.3% |
| 2000 | Al Gore | 48.4% |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton* | 49.2% |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton* | 43.0% |
| 1988 | Michael Dukakis | 45.7% |
| 1984 | Walter Mondale | 40.6% |
| 1980 | Jimmy Carter | 41.0% |
*Elected President of the United States
Bill Clinton received only 43% of the popular vote in 1992 but still managed to win the presidency as independent candidate Ross Perot garnered close to 20 million votes. It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the election while falling short of the 50% threshold.
Archived Democratic nomination odds: 2020
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
