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Biden’s Chances Keep Improving; Win Probability Nearing 90%

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Politics

Nov 5, 2020 · 1:08 PM PST

Joe and Jill Biden smiling and waving to a crowd
Say hello to President-elect and future First Lady Joe and Jill Biden. Photo by Glyn Lowe PhotoWorks (creative commons). Image has been cropped.
  • Joe Biden’s odds to win the 2020 election continue to improve
  • The mail-in votes in Pennsylvania and Georgia have him poised to pass Trump in both states
  • Trump’s chances to win reelection are down to 12.2%

The race isn’t over, but if you were to ask oddsmakers off the record, they would tell you the race is over.

Joe Biden’s odds have improved from -719 to -1340 over the last three hours, while incumbent Donald Trump has faded from +476 to +675.

Live Odds to Win 2020 Presidential Election (Nov. 5th)

Candidate Live Odds True Probability
Joe Biden -1340 87.8%
Donald Trump +675 12.2%

Odds as of  3:39 pm ET, Nov. 5th.

Georgia and Pennsylvania Both Turning Blue

Counting the states that have been called by all major media outlets, Joe Biden is sitting on 253 Electoral votes, meaning he needs to find 17 more to reach the pivotal 270. (Without getting into the specifics, a 269-to-269 tie is as good as a win for Trump.)

Six states remain uncalled but, at most, four remain “competitive”. Alaska and North Carolina are extremely likely to go to Trump.

That leaves Arizona (11 votes), Georgia (16 votes), Nevada (6 votes), and Pennsylvania (20 votes).

Biden currently leads in both Arizona and Nevada which, together, would put him at exactly 270. He is a sizable betting favorite to hold onto those leads.

Biden has also become the favorite to win both Georgia and Pennsylvania. While he remains behind in the current tally in both states, the final votes are all mail-in ballots. If Biden continues to garner the same percentage of mail-in votes that he has so far, he is on track to take the lead in both states.

If Biden wins Georgia, he’s at 269, meaning he would need just one of the other three to pass 270.

If he wins Pennsylvania, it’s over.

Oddsmakers and bettors see the reality of the situation clearly. Biden has at least three very realistic paths to victory: (1) win Pennsylvania, (2) win Georgia, and Nevada or Arizona, (3) win Arizona and Nevada.

Put them all together and sportsbooks would very much prefer that bettors don’t put another dollar on a Biden victory.

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