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Canadian Election Odds 2025 – Conservatives Heavily Favored Over Liberals, NDP

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in Politics News

Published:


Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the National Funeral Service for former President Jimmy Carter
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (2nd-R) and fellow world leaders attend the National Funeral Service for former President Jimmy Carter at Washington National Cathedral on Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025.
  • The next Canadian federal election will take place no later than October 20, 2025
  • Embattled PM Justin Trudeau is stepping down as leader of the Liberal Party
  • Below, see the odds to win the next Canadian election, odds to lead the Liberal Party, and odds to be the official opposition

In power for nearly a decade and languishing in the polls, embattled Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is stepping down as head of the Liberals once his party chooses a new leader. The next federal election must take place no later than October 20, 2025, and given the Conservative Party’s massive lead in the polls, the odds to win the next Canadian election heavily favor Pierre Poilievre and company.

Jump to: Election Odds | Official Opposition Odds | Next Liberal Leader Odds

Odds to Win Next Canadian Election

Team Odds
Conservatives -4000
Liberals +1600
NDP +7500
Any Other Party +10000

Election odds don’t get much uglier than this for the incumbents. The latest prices from FanDuel Ontario list the Conservatives as staggeringly short -4000 favorites to be sworn in as the governing party after the 2025 federal election. That amounts to a 97.56% implied win probability.

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The Liberals remain the second-favorite but at a long +1600 (5.88% implied win probability) with the NDP at +7500 (1.32%) and “any other party” at +10000 (0.99%).

The latest poll aggregator from CBC shows why the Conservatives are such massive chalk; they lead the Liberals by nearly 25 percentage points. Poilievre and the Conservatives are sitting at 44.2% support with the Liberals a distant second at 20.1%, narrowly ahead of Jagmeet Singh and the NDP at 19.3%.

The Bloc Québécois, which exclusively runs candidates in the province of Quebec, is at 8.5% with Elizabeth May and the Greens at just 4.1%. CBC projects that, if the election were held today, the Conservatives would win a landslide majority with 227 seats. (Only 172 are needed to form a majority government.)

Odds to Be Official Opposition

Team Odds
Bloc Québécois -195
Liberals +125
Any Other Party +6000

The odds to be the official opposition are perhaps the starkest illustration of the Liberals’ dire straits. Despite sitting second in terms of national support, the Liberals are +125 underdogs to even win the second-most seats in the 2025 federal election. The Bloc is currently the -195 favorite to form the official opposition, which is simply the party which holds the second-highest number of seats in the House of Commons.

This is the one prop where I, personally, see a ton of value on the Liberals. The latest CBC estimates have the Liberals, who are at a nadir of popularity, still winning 44 seats, slightly ahead of the Bloc with 41. The Bloc, remember, will only contest the 78 ridings in Quebec. And the Liberals really have nowhere to go but up once Trudeau is replaced by someone less polemical.

The election of Donald Trump in the United States is also a potential boon to the Liberals and NDP, especially with Trump’s annexation rhetoric seeping over the 49th parallel. Poilievre and the Conservatives are viewed as Trump-lite and, though they may be the most-likely to form the next Canadian government, the idea of joining the United States is not a popular one north of the border. An Angus Reid poll after Trump’s “51st state” comments showed just 6% of Canadians supported joining the US.

Odds to Be Next Liberal Party Leader

Team Odds
Mark Carney -115
Chrystia Freeland +125
Christy Clark +600
Francois-Philipe Champagne +900
Karina Gould +1100
Jonathan Wilkinson +1600
Steven MacKinnon +1900
Frank Baylis +3700
Sean Fraser +3700
Chandra Arya +4800

The odds to win the leadership of the Liberal Party post-Trudeau are an interesting mix. The odds-on favorite is currently Mark Carney, who was the governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, and then held that same position with the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. The Harvard/Oxford-educated economist has never run for public office.

The second-favorite is former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. The longtime MP from the University—Rosedale district in Ontario is largely responsible for Trudeau’s resignation. When she resigned as Deputy PM in December, Poilievre and Singh called for a vote of no confidence with respect to Trudeau, which is what led to him stepping down.

 

Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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