US Economy Growth Outperforms Expectations, See Odds for Q4 GDP
By Paul Lebowitz in Politics News
Published:
- The US Gross Domestic Product grew at a faster rate in the third quarter of 2025 than in the second quarter
- The GDP has not grown at such a rapid pace since 2023
- Increased consumer spending, exports, and federal spending are believed to be significant factors in the positive economic signs
According to the latest numbers released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the GDP grew at 4.3% in the third quarter. This was significantly higher than the second quarter results, which came in at 3.8%. It is the highest rate since 2023.
This is believed to be due to a spike in consumer spending, which rose a full percentage point to 3.5%. Exports showed a major increase of 8.8% from negative territory at -1.8%. Also, greater defense spending contributed to the uptick.
President Trump’s economic policies, and particularly his tariff strategy, have not given pause to consumers. The holiday season is anecdotally going well for retailers. Many believe the Q4 numbers will continue their upward trajectory.
Still, the word “affordability” is an effective Democrat talking point with working-class Americans lamenting the state of the economy and their future prospects. With much of the GDP increase believed to be tied to wealthier Americans’ spending habits, those on the lower economic spectrum are feeling the pinch. The aftermath of the extended shutdown and fears over rising healthcare costs are giving pause to the sanguine belief in the economy continuing the positive trend.
With the fourth quarter numbers set to be released near the end of January, prediction markets are speculating on the final tally and how much growth can be expected.
The President Touts His Economic Policies, but More is Involved
President Donald J. Trump predictably touted his economic policies as the catalyst for the rosier economic picture. This, as Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick tweets, is linked to the sweeping tariffs the President initiated.
However, there are warning signs ahead, particularly the upcoming Supreme Court case calling into question those tariffs.
Unemployment is the highest it has been in four years. If the spending is largely related to wealthy Americans’ habits and the holiday season, then an economic crunch could reduce GDP growth.
Another factor is the pending changes at the Federal Reserve with a new chair coming in May, or sooner if the President has his way. The current economic news makes it less likely that there will be another rate cut, further reducing consumer confidence.
Betting Odds for GDP Growth in Q4 2025
Trading volume for the GDP is approaching $250,000. There is a positive outlook up to 2% with the markets growing hesitant of the GDP going beyond 2.5%. The market uses the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data. If its real GDP increases by more than 2.5, the outcome will be “yes.” Markets close at 8:29 AM on the day this data is expected to be released to the public.
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Paul Lebowitz is a writer living in New York City. He is a novelist, columnist and social commentator and the author of eight published books on baseball – one novel and seven baseball guide/previews. He covers sports, politics, and pop culture. Paul graduated from Hunter College in New York City wi
