Latest Election Odds for NYC Mayor Race and Prop 50

• The New York City mayoral election is underway
• The betting markets strongly favor Zohran Mamdani over Andrew Cuomo
• See the latest prediction markets on California’s Prop 50

A slew of meaningful elections and referendums are taking place across the country on Tuesday, November 4th. The most-watched is the NYC mayoral race between Democrat Zohran Mamdani and independent Andrew Cuomo, who received an endorsement from Donald Trump just hours ago.

Has POTUS’ backing shifted the odds in Cuomo’s favor? Not based on the latest prediction markets at Kalshi.

NYC Mayoral Election Odds

Percentages as of 3:20 pm ET at Kalshi.com. Claim the Kalshi promo code to get a bonus on your first event contracts.

As of 3:20 pm ET, the prediction market prices at Kalshi showed Mamdani at a 93% chance to win, compared to just 8% for Cuomo, and less than 1% for Republican Curtis Sliwa.

Mamdani has been a massive favorite from the opening tip, so to speak, and his odds are only getting shorter as election day rolls on. He started the day around 90% (equivalent of -900 odds) and the Kalshi contracts on Mamdani winning have only become more expensive.

California Prop 50 Odds

Kalshi is also offering a market on California Prop 50, which is an attempt by the Democrats in the state legislature to override a redistricting map introduced by the state’s \independent commission. In reality, this is a direct response to Texas’ gerrymandering, which was spurred by a request from Trump in an effort to ensure GOP-control of congress after the midterms.

But, unlike in Texas, California lawmakers need voter approval to gerrymander their own electoral districts.

The prop is widely expected to pass, so Kalshi is offering a different sort of prediction market, one that asks whether the final vote on Prop 50 will outperform the final VoteHub poll, where the affirmative had a +17.6-point lead.

As of 3:34 pm ET, the “Yes” was trading at about 70¢-75¢ on the dollar. Kalshi’s estimates gave “Yes” a 72% chance of winning based on the latest trading numbers. “Yes” will cash if the final margin of victory is greater than 17.6 percentage points. “No” contracts will pay out if the final margin of victory is tied or lower.

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