- Online predication markets are offering +375 odds that Joe Biden will tender his resignation as President of the United States prior to the conclusion of his term
- Biden is listed at +355 to win a second term in the White House in 2024
- The chances of Donald Trump winning the Presidency in 2024 are rated at +233
According to online prediction markets, the chances of US President Joe Biden reaching the finish line of his first term in the Oval Office are not good.
At the site Predictit.org, the likelihood that Biden will tender his resignation as President prior to 2024 are listing at 21%. Converted to American betting odds, that works out to +375.
Biden is listed at +355 to win the 2024 Presidential election. Donald Trump, who lost to Biden in 2020, is listed at +233 to win the next election.
Joe Biden Odds
|Biden Resigns in First Term||+375||-375|
|Biden Wins 2024 Election||+355||N/A|
|Trump Wins 2024 Election||+233||N/A|
It’s important to remember that these are not betting lines, and that these numbers do not represent sports-betting props per se. Sites such as Predictit.org are merely offering averages on the possibility of outcomes occurring in the future.
Currently, it’s not allowable for legal and regulated US betting sites to offer wagering markets on US politics.
Biden Breathing Fire
Thursday, on the one-year anniversary of the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol Building, Biden gave perhaps the most memorable and on point speech of his Presidency.
Without mentioning Trump by name, Biden described how a former President of the United States created and then spread a web of lies designed to undermine the 2020 election. He cited how this man values power over principle and chided him for his inability to accept defeat.
Here is the truth: The former president of the United States has created and spread a web of lies about the 2020 election.
He’s done so because he values power over principle. Because his bruised ego matters more to him than our democracy or Constitution.
— President Biden (@POTUS) January 6, 2022
The fire and brimstone speech didn’t come across as if it was being delivered by someone preparing to step away from his job before completing the mandate he was given by the people.
It seems very likely that unless he encounters a health issue, Biden, 79, will finish out his term.
Will Joe Go For Two?
Now, Biden running again in 2024, that’s a completely different matter. He’s already the oldest candidate to ever win the White House. Does it make sense for him to run for a second term in 2024 when he’ll be in his 80s?
As recently as March of last year, Biden was suggesting that he would be running for President again in 2024. Then again, what was he supposed to say? A reporter posed the question to Biden as to whether he would seek a second term.
“You can’t love your country only when you win.”
Well said, @POTUS. Thank you for your moral clarity in defending our democracy.
— Secretary Pete Buttigieg (@SecretaryPete) January 6, 2022
If he says no, Biden instantly identifies himself as a lame-duck President prior to the 2022 mid-terms. It could’ve thrown both the country and the Democratic Party into disarray as potential candidates would’ve begun their Presidential posturing.
Could We See The Don Of A Second Trump Era?
Trump is telling everyone that he plans to run for the Republican nomination again in 2024. Trump is 75 and isn’t exactly the picture of health. While publicly the majority of Republicans in power are either endorsing Trump or at the very least staying quiet on the subject, the belief is that there is a groundswell of support to put forth Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the 2024 Republican Presidential candidate.
Trump said he was going to drive by a street corner this afternoon in W. Palm Beach to waive to supporters. The cult was out there all day waiting. Right wing networks sent their camera crews. He never showed. pic.twitter.com/fiUeomEfa6
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) January 6, 2022
Some close to Trump, including his former fixer Michael Cohen, are convinced that his 2024 candidacy is nothing more than Trump’s latest grift. They think he has no intention of running and is using this as a ruse to milk more money out of the MAGA masses.
The bottom line is that it’s entirely possible that neither Trump or Biden will run for President in 2024.