Odds for GA-14 Special Election After Georgia Sets Date to Fill Greene’s Seat
By Paul Lebowitz in Politics News
Published:
- Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene officially resigned from her seat on Monday, Jan. 5, 2026
- Gov. Brian Kemp has authorized a special election to fill GA-14
- Prediction markets have betting odds on who will win the vacant seat when the election is held on March 10
One of the more polarizing members of Congress, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, resigned on Monday. She had previously stated her intention to do so in late November. Following Greene’s official resignation, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp authorized a special election, set to be held on March 10, 2026, to fill the now vacant Georgia House seat.
The candidates to replace Greene include Republican Georgia State Senator Colton Moore, Republican Dalton City Councilman Nicky Lama, and Democrat military veteran Shawn Harris.
Greene’s Shocking Break From Trump Led to Her Subsequent Downfall
Greene won her 2020 election and re-elections in 2022 and 2024 by huge margins based largely on her avowed support for everything Trump. She quickly became known as “MTG” with positive and negative connotations, depending on whether the speaker was friend or foe.
Greene’s career in Congress came to an unexpected end in late November after she broke from President Trump over Israel’s relentless bombing campaign in Gaza, as well as her desire to have the Jeffrey Epstein files released.
Trump branded her as a “traitor” on social media, and she chose to depart Congress rather than risk the continued ire of the vindictive president.
Barring a health issue or a point-of-no-return scandal, it is highly unusual for any member of elected office to willingly resign mid-term. However, once Greene lost Trump’s support, it was a matter of time before he further isolated her and tried to force her out if she didn’t surrender her position.
In the interim, Greene has publicly adapted from being hard-core MAGA, to presenting a veneer of rationality and flexibility, willing to publicly disagree with Trump and her fellow Republicans who are invariably in lockstep with the president knowing the consequences if they refuse to toe the line. That came with a cost. But she’s already formulating a new persona.
Greene has begun cozying up to past enemies, even going so far as to appear on The View.
It’s reasonable to ask if this is a legitimate change of heart, or whether it’s part of a strategic reinvention to advance her goals and stay relevant politically.
Now, the special election, scheduled for early March, will determine who replaces her.
Prediction markets offer the ability to trade contracts on the outcome of the upcoming special election in Georgia. The district would vote for just about anyone with an “R” next to their name, so for the GOP, it is as safe as having Batman for a bodyguard. The suspense centers on which Republican will win and if a runoff will be necessary.
Prediction Market Odds for 2026 GA-14 Special Election
For those looking to trade on the results of the special election in Georgia, the Kalshi promo code is the best way to get in on the action. New users who sign up with the Kalshi link on this page will receive a $10 Sign Up Bonus when they complete their first $100 in trades on the platform.
Early market indications have Georgia Senator Colton Moore as a prohibitive favorite to win Greene’s now vacant seat. Other interesting candidates to trade on include City Councilman Nicky Lama, and Democrat Shawn Harris.
The Candidates
Colton Moore
The 32-year-old Moore makes Greene seem like a centrist by comparison. He is from a Georgia farming family and was elected to the Georgia House of Representatives, taking office in 2019. He currently represents Georgia’s 53rd District in the State Senate.
A major Trump supporter, Moore was removed from the Senate Republican Caucus in 2024 after attacking Republican colleagues because they did not call a special session to take action against Fulton County D.A. Fani Willis following her indictment of Trump.
Nicky Lama
Lama, in his early-40s, is a member of the Dalton City Council. He too is a Republican and touts his bona fides as an entrepreneur and a fiscal conservative who supports law enforcement, border security, and adherence to the U.S. Constitution.
Lama has a Chilean and Korean background.
Shawn Harris
In any other district, the Democrat Harris would be a great candidate. He is a military veteran and has a degree in Agribusiness from Tuskegee University. He saw combat in Afghanistan and received a degree in Strategic Studies at the Army War College.
Perhaps if he switched parties and said “MAGA” a few times, he could win. Trump likes military veterans.
But he’s a Democrat. So forget it.
The race to replace Greene is something of a surprise given her past bellicosity and blind support for Trump, but once she contradicted the president, the die was cast and her political career, in its current form, was over.
Paul Lebowitz is a novelist, columnist, social commentator, and the author of eight published books on baseball – one novel and seven baseball guide/previews. He covers sports, politics, and pop culture. Paul graduated from Hunter College with a degree in English. He lives in New York City.
