See What Prediction Markets are Saying for How Long the Government Shutdown Will Last

• The partial government shutdown is set to extend to next week as Congress remains out of session
• The Democrats and Republicans remain locked in a standoff over funding and reforms surrounding ICE
• Prediction Markets, like Kalshi, are offering odds on how long the partial shutdown will last

As the partial government shutdown approaches the end of its first week, neither side appears ready to back down from its demands. Democrats are pushing for operational reforms for ICE before they will approve any bill funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), while Republicans wish to avoid such restrictions.

The earliest the shutdown could end would be February 23rd, when Congress returns to the Capitol, just one day ahead of President Trump’s State of the Union address. However, there is little pressure on either side to get a quick resolution.

With ICE and CBP receiving substantial funding from “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act,” the Republicans are not under pressure to ensure this focal point of the administration does not go unpaid for too long, giving them ample room to drag out the shutdown. On the other side, the Democrats could face mounting criticism if they come out of yet another shutdown with nothing to show for it, especially in the wake of protests and killings in Minnesota.

This partial shutdown will provide the prevailing side with plenty of political capital and momentum going into November’s midterms, further motivating the Democrats and Republicans to not back down on a hot-button topic.

The most recent shutdown only lasted 4 days and garnered little attention, but the first one of Trump’s second term dragged on for a record 43 days. His administration has proven that it has a very strong tolerance to endure these long shutdowns, having also held the previous record for the longest shutdown at 35 days.

Prediction markets are available for eligible users to trade on the length of the government shutdown and potentially profit from their picks.

Prediction Markets Odds for the Government Shutdown

The markets are nearly certain, at 99%, that the government shutdown will last at least 10 days, extending past Congress’s return to session and Trump’s State of the Union address. It is not until day 20 that the market starts to dip to 75%. The odds remain strong going into the 3rd week of March, with 35 days growing traction and currently sitting at 50%.

There is growing belief in the markets that this could be another record-breaking shutdown under Trump, with that number growing to 27% on the government suspension lasting at least 43 days. Beyond that, traders can speculate on it lasting up to 90 days; however, the certainty on those markets diminishes quickly.

With the limited scope of federal employees impacted by this shutdown, it could take weeks before their constituents start pressuring either side to consider a compromise that could get the DHS funding approved. Outside of a large natural disaster requiring action from FEMA and the Coast Guard or mass disruption to air travel from protesting TSA agents, there is little reason to think this will end any time soon.

With the forecasted high in the last week hitting 36.8 days, traders may be able to find extra value right now, with the market having dipped to 35 days this afternoon.

Those wanting a financial stake in the partial government shutdown can use the Kalshi promo code to receive a $10 Sign Up Bonus once they have completed $100 in trades.

Key Dates for the Government Shutdown

It seems safe to assume no deal will be reached before Trump’s State of the Union address, on February 24th, where he will be able to use the shutdown as a powerful talking point to go after the Democrats. In the days following the address, the Democrats will be unlikely to accept any deal to avoid looking like they are giving in to the President’s will.

Day 35, March 21st, is where things could start to get interesting as both sides begin to feel the squeeze from the public to come to a resolution.

During the last extended shutdown, major airport delays became a pressure point for the government as the shutdown began drastically impacting non-government employees. With that in mind, for this shutdown, it’s important to pay attention to the pay schedule of TSA employees to know when they will miss a paycheck and when their tolerance for working without pay might reach its limit.

The first missed paycheck for TSA agents will be at the end of the month. If this shutdown lasts into March, airlines will face the college spring break busy season with disgruntled employees and potentially understaffed. How long will TSA tolerate working without pay, with the last shutdown fresh on their mind? How long are customers willing to put up with longer-than-usual lines?

35 days would put the end of the shutdown in the middle of the spring break season, which makes it feel like a very strong option. If it goes beyond March, this shutdown has the potential to far exceed the previous record as each side of the aisle tries to make its point heard.

Get in on this evolving market and voice your opinion on when the government shutdown will end.