Odds for Trump Mentions During Wednesday Address to the Nation

• President Donald J. Trump will address the nation on Wednesday evening to discuss the ongoing Middle East conflict
• He is expected to give a relatively definitive timeline regarding U.S. involvement and when it will end
• Prediction markets are speculating on what he will say during this address with obvious options and some under-the-radar possibilities that fall in line with his usual lexicon

Just over one year into his second term, President Trump is dealing with an array of global and domestic challenges. At the top of the list is the conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. joining Israel in an aggressive attempt at regime change in Iran was polarizing at first. Now, it is tilting toward national disfavor that goes beyond a united Democratic party and is extending to large swaths of the GOP.

This is problematic for Trump in multiple ways, not the least of which is the rapidly approaching midterm elections. The Democrats were widely expected to take control of the House of Representatives. Now the Senate is also believed to be in jeopardy. Democrats controlling both chambers would be severely hinder Trump’s final two years in the Oval Office.

It’s clear the president understands this and he will use the bully pulpit to state his case when he addresses the nation on Wednesday, April 1.

Iran will absolutely be at the center of the address. But other issues like immigration, the Supreme Court, gas prices, and more could come into play.

Prediction markets are providing odds as to what Trump will say during his speech.

Some of the words or phrases are patently obvious and the odds reflect that. Others, however, are less assured but still fall in with Trump’s customary speech patterns and how he tends to go off script. So even if a pre-speech transcript or a basic outline is provided, he is certain to throw in a few Trumpian asides.

Odds for What Trump Will Say on Wednesday

The market is at $1.5 million and will rise throughout the day.

Some words hold little value because it is close to 100% assured that Trump will say them. “Nuclear” is one such word. Others are likely, but not guaranteed.

The options run the gamut of topical phrases and familiar Trump talking points. To jump in with a prediction, the Kalshi referral code will unlock a $10 Sign Up Bonus for new users after $10 in trades have been completed.

If a word or phrase is selected and the president says it during his address, the market will resolve to Yes. The source must be credible. That includes The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CBS, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, The White House, and others.

The market will be resolved by using a video of the speech itself. The rules are specific and there are variables, so it is important to understand them beforehand.

Deal/Settle

Currently “deal/settle” is hovering at around 85%. That’s surprisingly low considering Trump’s affinity for the word “deal.”

“Settle” is more questionable.

Making a deal is the foundation of everything Trump says and does. Sometimes it’s from a position of strength when his demands are set in stone. At other times, he’s more flexible with an end goal in mind that is far less stringent than his most incendiary rhetoric, which is more often than not a negotiating tactic.

He’s going to say “deal.”

Negotiate/Negotiated/Negotiation

This is looming in the 70% range.

Again, some form of “negotiate” is always out front in Trump’s mind. In general, he saves his more bellicose threats for social media. When he’s speaking, it’s more nuanced.

Why this word would be at such a low percentage is a mystery. Of course, Trump will throw in a few “or else” messages to the Iranian leadership. But the basis will be to get this over with as quickly as possible. The word “negotiation” will unavoidably be said in the speech.

Gas/Gasoline

While Trump will be focused on the Middle East, he also has domestic matters to contend with. That includes gas prices. The market has “gas/gasoline” at around 60%.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the biggest points of contention between the U.S. and Iran. Threats and overt attacks on oil transports have put gas prices in flux. They recently surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. Because Trump has been touting his economic bona fides and how his policies are meant to be friendly to businesses and consumers, this is worrisome, especially as public support of the ongoing conflict is declining rapidly, even among Trump’s most ardent supporters.

He will absolutely try to assuage public fears about gas prices.

Midnight Hammer

“Midnight Hammer” is in the 55% range.

This was the name for the June 22, 2025 airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Does anyone even remember this? It was just over nine months ago and it’s highly possible that Trump himself won’t even recall it.

Sure, it’s possible that his speechwriters slip it in there, but why? The current action is called “Operation Epic Fury.” It’s very difficult to envision Trump mentioning “Midnight Hammer.”

Supreme Court

Since it’s Trump, even if the speech is to discuss the Middle East, he will send none-too-subtle messages about the rest of his agenda.

The U.S. Supreme Court is hearing arguments over Trump’s executive order to end birthright citizenship. The consensus in legal circles is that the court will rule against the administration.

As the arguments commenced, Trump took the unprecedented step in attending the hearing. No sitting president has ever attended oral arguments in front of the Supreme Court.

This was a clear attempt to intimidate the justices and was a sign that the president is aware of where his E.O. is headed.

Regardless, given Trump’s penchant for sending messages and airing grievances independent of the forum, it’s easy to see him saying “Supreme Court” during his address.

The current percentage is at around 20%, which makes it a good value pick.