Odds on US Taking Control of NATO Territory Greenland After Miller Says it Should Belong to US
By Paul Lebowitz in Politics News
Published:
- The Trump administration is ramping up its pursuit of Greenland with White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller using bellicose rhetoric regarding the territory
- President Trump and his staff are emboldened by the successful operation arresting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and are keeping all options on the table for global objectives
- The prediction markets have odds on whether the U.S. will take control of part of Greenland before Trump leaves office in 2029
In a recent interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller reiterated the administration’s desire for the U.S. to acquire Greenland, raising the possibility of military action to stake its claim. President Trump has been basking in the glory of the Nicolás Maduro arrest, using his trademark unpredictability as a cudgel to achieve his ends.
The reignited and enhanced pursuit of Greenland comes on the heels of Trump’s recent selection of Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as Special Envoy to the territory. Gov. Landry is hawkish on Greenland, mirroring the Trump administration’s position on the territory.
Stephen Miller’s Hawkish Remarks on Greenland
Miller relishes being the “bad guy” or the “enforcer” for Trump’s more controversial policies.
Widely disliked, if not outright despised outside of MAGA circles, Miller’s tone is that of the hard-right conservative. He has made several inflammatory statements regarding a pet issue of his, immigration, allegedly saying he “would be happy if not a single refugee foot ever again touched America’s soil.”
This is taking a typical Trump negotiating tool to the extreme, making far-reaching demands no one would agree to as a starting point, and then moving closer toward the middle where they wanted to end up.
Still, when it comes to Greenland, the debate is more nuanced than simply staging an operation to arrest the president of another country, like what the U.S. just did in Venezuela. Following the recent capture of Maduro, Stephen Miller’s wife, Katie, posted an American flag covering Greenland, an autonomous territory in the Kingdom of Denmark.
Complicating matters further is Denmark’s status as a fellow NATO member. When pressed on whether the U.S. would seriously consider a military operation against Denmark, Miller softly backtracked saying Trump’s goal to acquire the territory did not need to be discussed in a military context. No NATO member has ever entered into conflict with another NATO member since its inception in 1949.
Trump insists the U.S. needs Greenland for security and tactical purposes. In his first term, Trump repeatedly referenced a desire to purchase Greenland. Currently, Greenland is an autonomous territory in the Kingdom of Denmark. Denmark bristled at Landry being named special envoy.
The Danes have avoided blunt criticism of Trump and the U.S., saying it is an “essential partner” in security matters.
Prediction markets are assessing the chances of a U.S. partial takeover of Greenland. While the odds are heavily tilted toward “no,” the odds for “yes” have increased as of late. The mere fact that there is a reasonably significant chance of a takeover is markedly different in foreign policy from how the U.S. operated under past presidents.
Odds for U.S. Taking Control of Greenland
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The Trump template is to deviate from the norm and to fulfill his campaign promises, no matter how far they veer from established precedent under past presidents whether they were Republican or Democrat.
While the odds are heavily in favor of the U.S. not taking control of any part of Greenland, that the “yes” percentage speaks to Trump’s perception as, at best–a wild card, and, at worst–a loose cannon that might go off and start an international incident with an ally.
Underlying Realities of the Objective and Rhetoric
Trump is glowing following the successful operation to arrest Maduro. But does he truly intend to backtrack on his belief that the U.S. gets involved in too many foreign conflicts? Or is he using the mere threat of military force as a negotiating strategy?
Under Presidents Joseph R. Biden, Barack Obama, and, to an extent, George W. Bush, there was always a reasonably safe assumption that U.S. warnings of military action if certain lines were crossed, would not happen, and could be largely ignored. That is not the case under Trump.
It’s difficult to envision Trump really initiating military action to seize Greenland. Comparing it to the Maduro arrest goes beyond apples and oranges. It’s apples and anvils.
However, what Trump manages to do with the occasional following through on his threats is to give pause to those he’s trying to persuade. Whether it’s through rocket fire or posts on social media, there is a method behind the on-the-surface madness.
Based on that, Trump will probably not use military force for Greenland. But the word “probably” leaves open the possibility. And that may have been the intent all along.
Paul Lebowitz is a novelist, columnist, social commentator, and the author of eight published books on baseball – one novel and seven baseball guide/previews. He covers sports, politics, and pop culture. Paul graduated from Hunter College with a degree in English. He lives in New York City.
