Odds on What Trump Will Say During the State of the Union?

• President Trump is set to give his State of the Union Address on Tuesday night before a joint session of Congress
• The current political climate is tumultuous, with several hot-button issues both domestically and overseas
• See the latest prediction markets odds for what President Trump will say during his State of the Union Address

President Trump is set to give his State of the Union Address on Tuesday, following an interesting week on several fronts. Among the more impactful current events, the Supreme Court ruled many of the President’s tariffs illegal. Additionally, President Trump issued a public statement that he would be directing the release of government files relating to aliens and UFOs. Tuesday’s State of the Union will see the President showcase his accomplishments from the last year and try to rally support for the Republicans heading into the midterm elections.

Following the wake of the Supreme Court overturning the president’s use of tariffs and a partial government shutdown, the State of the Union gives President Trump a chance to shift focus to the positive things he has achieved. Gaining favor with the viewers needs to be a focal point for Trump, as a recent NPR poll found that the President is changing the country for the worse, which is considerably higher than at any point during his last term.

Prediction markets offer the ability for users to trade on what President Trump will say during his speech. For some direction, traders can look to a Fox News segment where JD Vance mentioned that the president will focus on bringing jobs and factories back to the US and lowering energy costs, highlighting key platforms Trump ran on during his last campaign.

While the eyes of the nation will be tuned into the State of the Union address on Tuesday, February 24, 2026, at 9:00 pm EST, Kalshi is offering markets on what Trump will say during it, including some of his favorite hits like “trillion,” “radical left,” “fake news,” and many more.

Odds for What Will Trump Say During the State of the Union 2026?

Traders on Kalshi are in for a fun night on Tuesday, with the promise of a long speech and markets available for 45 key words and phrases. Over half of the markets are sitting above an implied probability rate of 50%, and it would not take long to scroll through the president’s social media to find most of these terms.

The top spot is a tie between “trillion” and “250” at 93%. Recently, Trump has talked about $18 trillion in new investments in the US, and he is likely to continue talking about that tonight to fire up support for the GOP. The 250th anniversary of the US has long been a favorite topic for him, and Trump rarely misses a chance to tie himself to this historic moment.

“Hockey” sits just below at 91% and is gaining traction. After wins from both the men’s and women’s hockey teams in the Olympics, Trump stated that he would be inviting them to the State of the Union, which sparked growing interest in this market. Now that the women’s team has said that they will not attend, the market has skyrocketed as the president might take this chance to highlight the men’s team for attending or to attack the women’s team for rebuking him.

While some may hope the president does not press any hot-button issues, the market on “ICE/National Guard” appears bullish that Trump will embrace the topic, with public belief up to 90% and rising. Surprisingly, all the way down in 5th is “Trump” at 88%, which, with the president’s affinity for naming things after himself and telling stories about himself, seems low.

While Trump is likely to play all of his greatest hits, Kalshi also offers markets on some more recent phrases and some classics found on the B-side.

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to score a $10 Sign Up Bonus when they complete at least $100 in trades.

Odds on Trump saying “Alien” during the State of the Union

This may be the most out there market for tomorrow’s address, and it all stems from a recent headline-grabbing interview with former President Obama, who said that he believes it is likely aliens do exist. Not to be outdone by his predecessor, Trump accused Obama of potentially releasing classified information and later said he may release government files related to aliens. President Trump may continue to steal the spotlight on the topic tonight and gain favor from those holding out hope for confirmation that aliens are real and have visited the planet. However, sitting at 86%, this market feels like it may be a bit of a reach when there are much more pressing matters in the country.

Odds on “Affordability” being said during the State of the Union

The President likes to claim that “affordability” is a new word created by the Democrats to make him look bad, and yet he cannot stop himself from saying it quite often. He will bring it up to point out the Democrats are attacking him or to try to change public perception by pointing to things that have gotten cheaper since he took office. At 63%, this market could offer great value, as much of the country wants to know when things will finally become cheaper after facing years of inflation.

Odds on Trump saying “Radical Left” at the State of the Union Address

Surprisingly, this Trump classic is sitting at only a 75% implied probability rate on Kalshi. With “ICE/National Guard” at 90%, it is easy to see Trump weaving between praising the efforts of ICE and demonizing the “radical left” for protesting the administration’s immigration crackdown. Add in the Supreme Court’s recent ruling where all 3 Democratic Justices sided against him, and it seems all the more likely Trump will go for several hits of the “radical left.”

Odds on Trump saying “Drill Baby Drill” tonight

Could a campaign throwback come out of the closet tonight? With Vance mentioning that the president will focus part of the address on lowering energy costs, it makes sense for the President to bring back this catchphrase he first brought up when he declared a national energy crisis. It would also serve as a reminder to blue-collar workers that he has not forgotten about them and is trying to create more jobs in their sectors. The market sits at just 46%, so it might be a long shot, but with recent strategies failing him, it could be time for a callback.

Odds on “Sleepy Joe” being said during the State of the Union

It wouldn’t be a speech from President Trump without former President Biden catching a stray via the “Sleepy Joe” moniker. Trump rarely misses a shot to bash the former administration and blame them for problems in the country, whether it is the economy, foreign policy, or the border. With all three of those things being hot topics at the moment, Trump is set up to pass the blame on to “Sleepy Joe” before moving on to how he has solved this issue. At 35%, it feels like there is plenty of value to be found here, even though the market has fallen from a high near 50%.