Steny Hoyer Announces Retirement from Congress: Trade on Party Odds for MD-05 House Race
By Paul Lebowitz in Politics News
Published:
- Veteran Democratic Representative Steny Hoyer announced he is retiring from Congress at the conclusion of his current term
- Hoyer, 86, has represented Maryland’s 5th District since 1981, and was the House Majority Leader for a total of eight years
- Prediction markets are overwhelmingly tilted toward the Democrats retaining the seat in the 2026 midterms
Rep. Steny Hoyer, a longtime powerbroker who served two separate four-year terms as the House Majority Leader, has announced that he will seek re-election in 2026. Hoyer is in his fifth decade in national politics after getting his start in the Maryland State Senate. He steps aside in a fraught political landscape with his party trying to reposition itself as a viable alternative to the MAGA movement, and serve as a counterbalance to a more aggressive President Trump in his final two years in office.
Hoyer Makes Way for the Next Generation After a Distinguished Career
Hoyer played a vital role in major Democratic accomplishments including the passage of President Obama’s Affordable Care Act. During his time in the House, Hoyer forged a working relationship with fellow Democratic leader and frequent intra-party antagonist Nancy Pelosi. At various times, both vied for leadership in the party. Along with his two stints as the House Majority Leader from 2007 to 2011 and 2019 to 2023, he served as the House Minority Whip and the Chair of the House Democratic Caucus.
Past House Speakers Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy sung Hoyer’s praises after his retirement announcement, a rarity in today’s political climate.
He was known as a pragmatist who sought results rather than blatant partisanship. Now, at an advanced age and seeing the writing on the wall, Hoyer announced he is stepping aside a year after he faced a primary challenge from a far younger candidate, Harry Jarin.
For Hoyer’s seat, the question is whether the seat will, as expected, stay in the Democrats’ column as they try to retake control of the House.
Prediction Market Odds for Hoyer’s MD-05 Seat Staying in Democrats’ Hands
The Midterm Elections are coming up fast, and the Kalshi promo code is the best option for those who want to take part in predicting whether MD-05 stays with the Democrats, or if a Republican wins the seat. For new users, there is a $10 Sign Up Bonus once they have completed $100 in trades on the prediction market platform.
The current odds give the Dems a 97% chance to retain the seat with the GOP at nearly zero. In trading, this is about as close to a “sure thing” as it gets. Still, anything can happen as often does in politics. Those picking the Democrats to retain the seat will have their prediction resolve to “Yes” if the member is sworn in from MD-05 for the term starting in 2027. The outcome will be verified by the Library of Congress.
In addition to the MD-05 House seat election result, prediction markets give users the opportunity to trade on various other political outcomes, like the winner of the 2028 Presidential Election.
MD-05 is a Democratic Stronghold, But…You Never Know
The aforementioned Harry Jarin specifically pointed out Hoyer’s age when he launched his long shot bid to replace the stalwart public servant in the 2025 primary. Jarin came with some impressive credentials that make him a strong candidate for Hoyer’s soon-to-be-open seat. The 36-year-old is a past competitor on “Jeopardy!” and works as an emergency services consultant. He is also a volunteer firefighter.
At the time of the 2023 census, MD-05 had just over 812,000 residents. Its median age was 40 and was split nearly evenly between males and females. Forty-one percent of the population is white, while 42% is Black. Income per capita is just over $54,200. Median household income is slightly over $122,200. Nearly 42% of the population has a Bachelor’s degree or higher. There is nearly full high school graduation at just over 94%.
In short, it is not an affluent area in general, but it does have some pockets that could be agreeable to a moderate Republican. In the 2024 Presidential Election, Vice-President Kamala Harris won the state easily by more than 28%. However, she did about 5 points worse than Joe Biden did in 2020. Since 2003, the state has alternated Republican and Democratic governors.
It’s an unlikely district to flip and it’s just as unlikely that the GOP will spend money on a seat they know they won’t win while trying to defend vulnerable seats in other areas. Still, if they find a liberal-leaning Republican who can sell a moderate stance while expressing frustration with both parties, anything is possible.
Paul Lebowitz is a novelist, columnist, social commentator, and the author of eight published books on baseball – one novel and seven baseball guide/previews. He covers sports, politics, and pop culture. Paul graduated from Hunter College with a degree in English. He lives in New York City.
