Tim Walz Drops Out of Minnesota Governor’s Race Amid Fraud Scandal: See Odds for Next Minnesota Governor
By Paul Lebowitz in Politics News
Published:
- Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has bowed out of the race to be re-elected, amidst allegations of massive welfare fraud in the state
- Walz was the Democratic nominee for Vice-President in 2024, and was previously seeking a third term as Minnesota Governor
- Check the prediction markets to see the latest odds for the next Democratic nominee for Minnesota Governor
Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota made headline news on Monday morning when he officially announced his withdrawal from the state’s gubernatorial race. The major announcement comes on the heels of what has been a tumultuous two weeks for Gov. Walz, after a bombshell report exposed massive levels of alleged fraud throughout his state’s welfare programs.
As Walz bows out of the race in Minnesota, many are speculating who will fill the position when a new Governor is elected in November. Prediction markets like Kalshi allow users to trade on the outcome of this political event and stake a position for various candidates.
Gov. Walz Will Not Seek a Third Term Amid Fraud Investigation
Embattled Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will not seek re-election this November. The 61-year-old former Democratic nominee for Vice-President has been under pressure as a child care center fraud probe gathers steam in his state. The Trump administration has threatened to withhold federal funding for these facilities after an independent investigation by a social media influencer went viral in late December 2025.
Walz frames his decision as putting the state first above his interests.
This is a dramatic fall for Gov. Walz. With the sitting governor having pulled out, prediction markets are speculating as to which prominent Minnesota Democrat will take the spot at the top of the ticket. Names being mentioned include the heavy favorite, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Attorney General Keith Ellison, Secretary of State Steve Simon, and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey.
Odds for the Minnesota Governor Democratic Nominee
Despite the controversies that continually arose under Gov. Walz, from the George Floyd incident to the accusations of child care facility fraud, Minnesota is a reliably blue state…generally.
It occasionally deviates from perceived norms and does the unexpected and unprecedented.
Moderate Republican Tim Pawlenty was a two-term governor from 2003 to 2011. And this is the same state where its residents, unhappy with the available options, decided on military veteran, actor, and professional wrestler Jesse “The Body” Ventura as its chief executive from 1999-2003.
New users interested in trading on this prediction market can do so with Kalshi. There is a $10 Sign Up Bonus after registering and completing $100 in trades.
Current trading volume is approaching $245,000. Sen. Klobuchar is at 82% with yes at 82¢ and no at 19¢. Far behind are SOS Steve Simon at 9% and yes at 10¢ and no at 91¢, and AG Keith Ellison at 3% with yes at 7¢ and no at 97¢.
The market resolves to “yes” for whichever candidate is chosen and gets the Democratic nomination. Make sure to sign up with the Kalshi promo code to score a welcome bonus for trading on the Minnesota Governor’s race.
Amy Klobuchar
Sen. Klobuchar was elected to the Senate in the Democratic wave in 2006. She is well-liked among her constituents and has had her eye on a higher office in the past, throwing her hat in the ring for President in 2020. She was considered as presumptive Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden’s running mate that year, losing out to California Sen. Kamala Harris.
Klobuchar will be 66 in May, but age is no longer the obstacle it once was to be elected to the White House, since the last two elected Heads of State were the oldest ever in the history of the Republic. If a question about her in a future presidential run is that she has never been a chief executive, being the Minnesota Governor checks off that box. She’s pretty much gone as far as she can in the Senate.
Keith Ellison
AG Ellison will be 63 by the time the election rolls around. He is ambitious and has already served in the U.S. House for 12 years. While he is from Michigan, he went to law school in Minnesota. He was elected AG in 2018 and re-elected in 2022. Ellison is extremely progressive in his ideas, similar to recently elected New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. But there’s a difference between getting elected to citywide office and even as AG and becoming a state’s chief executive.
Despite Minnesota being liberal, it might be hard for Ellison to get elected, depending on who the Republican opponent is. The state Democratic operation will not want to risk losing the statehouse by nominating a polarizing figure like Ellison.
Steve Simon
Simon has been the Secretary of State for 11 years. His political lane is to work with anyone and everyone to serve the interests of Minnesotans. He is the former Assistant AG and was an attorney in the private sector. Simon is married with two children, and his seeming dullness could be viewed as a strength in these extreme times.
Still, name recognition and appeal could be lacking. Nominating him at the expense of Klobuchar would be a risk.
Jacob Frey
Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey is at 1% with yes at 2¢ and no at 99¢. That’s equal to Gov. Walz if he changes his mind.
However, Frey has become recognizable with his social media presence and accusations of pandering for political advancement. He openly sobbed at George Floyd’s funeral, inviting skepticism and outright mockery. At 44, presumably has higher aspirations. It would be a bad idea for him to run now, as there is plenty of time for him to take the next step in his burgeoning political career.
Klobuchar is the Obvious Choice, Ellison, Simon, Worth a Look
The Democratic nomination is Klobuchar’s if she wants it. But if, for whatever reason, she decides to remain in the Senate, it will come down to factions in the Minnesota Democratic apparatus as to whether they want someone safe and predictable, while being amenable to moderates as Simon would be, or a candidate who brings the progressive bona fides that have taken hold in several states across the nation.
Paul Lebowitz is a novelist, columnist, social commentator, and the author of eight published books on baseball – one novel and seven baseball guide/previews. He covers sports, politics, and pop culture. Paul graduated from Hunter College with a degree in English. He lives in New York City.
