- The 2020 United States Presidential Election is on November 3rd, 2020
- Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 but Hillary Clinton won the popular vote
- Trump’s odds to win the popular vote in 2020 are improving; should bettors back the incumbent?
As the fight for the Democratic Party nominee intensifies, oddsmakers believe Donald Trump’s path to reelection is getting much easier. Just a few weeks ago, Trump was a +175 bet to win the popular vote in 2020. Now the he’s at +110 to do so. Can he really pull it off?
Odds to Win Popular Vote in 2020
|Field (Any Other Candidate)||-130|
Odds as of Feb. 14.
Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a margin of 2.8 million (65.84 million to 62.98 million).
Bernie Sanders Moves Into Pole Position To Be Democratic Nominee
We’ve seen a number of different candidates lead the national polls and Bernie Sanders is the current front runner. Former favorite Joe Biden has seen his odds to win the nomination dropped like a rock.
Biden failed to pick up a single delegate in the state of New Hampshire after collecting just six in Iowa. He finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. Every modern-day candidate to eventually win the nomination – both Democrat and Republican – placed no worse than second in New Hampshire.
That’s also bad news for Elizabeth Warren, who finished fourth in the Granite State and is losing her progressive battle with Sanders. As for Pete Buttigieg, he currently leads the delegate count but few people believe he has the ground game to really fight it out in this race across the country. He’s not polling well in other places and is expected to fade.
What all of that means is that Sanders is Trump’s most-likely election foe — and Bernie is becoming more and more likely by the day. It’s that fact which is fueling the boost in Trump’s popular vote odds.
Trump Has Wind At His Back
It’s been a fantastic couple of weeks for President Trump. Impeachment is behind him and it’s apparently backfired for the Dems: Trump’s approval rating in Gallup polls is higher than its ever been. It’s even higher than President Obama was at this point his presidency.
— Jeff Taylor (@jefftayloredits) February 13, 2020
Unemployment levels are at all-time lows – including for African-Americans and Hispanics – and the stock market is at all-time highs. The general rule of thumb is that an incumbent never gets voted out if the economy is strong.
More good news hit this morning as the USA Today and Gallup reported that their poll showed that six out of ten Americans feel better off than they were three years ago. There’s absolutely no question that Trump’s rhetoric, methods, and behavior are unorthodox – to put it in the most polite, neutral way – but those results will be hard to argue with.
Trump Could Win Popular Vote … If Sanders Is Nominee
The Democratic Party is really up against it. There’s clearly a split in the party and moderates don’t want what the progressives are offering: big change. However, there is no moderate candidate that looks capable of winning the nomination. Buttigieg polls extremely poorly with minorities and is polling poorly in many of the upcoming states.
Biden has completely flamed out and even if he wins South Carolina – as expected – he’s running so low on money and momentum that he’s hard to get behind. Senator Warren is also a fading commodity while Senator Amy Klobuchar has overachieved, but appears to be a serious long shot at this point.
Of course, Mike Bloomberg is just getting into this race and he’s about to unleash about $2 billion worth of spending. If he wins the nomination, Trump won’t win the popular vote. Bloomberg is essentially a Republican and possibly someone many moderates – on both sides – can get behind.
However, if the nominee is Sanders and he offers a lot of social programs like Medicare For All, free tuition, the Green New Deal and a whole host of other massive changes, Trump should win the popular vote. There are too many people who are privately happy with the economy and they’ll grin and bear a possible unpleasant four more years as long as the financials look good.
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