What Time is the State of the Union? How to Watch and Odds for What Trump Will Say

• President Donald J. Trump’s State of the Union address before a joint session of Congress is scheduled for Tuesday night
• With Congress and some or all of the Supreme Court present, it gives President Trump a captive audience to simultaneously vent and extol
• Prediction markets are active as to what the President might or might not say this evening

Although the State of the Union address is slated for later this evening, the speech almost never begins on time. This is likely a concession to the networks so they can maximize their viewership, give “pregame” analysis since it’s the Super Bowl of politics, and prolong the anticipation and drama. Given that it’s President Trump, expect spirited back and forth from partisan voices instead of a straight news presentation.

What Time is the State of the Union?

• Start Time: Tuesday, February 24, 2026 – 9:00 pm EST
• How to Watch: News networks (ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, MSNBC, NBC, etc.) will broadcast the event. Users can also stream the State of the Union on the official network YouTube channels.
• Location: House Chamber, U.S. Capitol, Washington, D.C. (Joint-Session of Congress)

President Trump will be aiming to make tonight’s address a memorable one as he tries to reach Americans across the nation. Among the topics to expect the president to weigh in on are: the upcoming 250th anniversary of the country, the economy, immigration, global crises, and much more.

Given the litany of challenges facing Trump and the nation, there are seemingly endless options available on prediction markets as to what he might or might not say during the speech.

Odds for Trump’s State of the Union

Trump takes pride in his unpredictability. However, his personality is such that simmering grievances, old and new, are forever bubbling beneath the surface. Given the fraught nature of the challenges on his plate, the list of potential words and phrases he might say while speaking is endless. A copy of the speech is generally available to the media and public beforehand, but it’s Trump. He’ll veer off when he feels like it or if something pops into his head or line of vision. The text of the speech is a guideline with unavoidable riffs needing to be factored in.

Some words are more obvious than others, and it is all but guaranteed that the President will say them. That includes “Trump,” “hockey,” the “stock market,” and “ICE.” Other possible words/phrases are more understated, but remain possible if not outright probable.

When diving into this market, if Trump says the word or phrase selected, the market will resolve to Yes. The source must be a reputable one, including the Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, CNN, Fox News, or The White House, among many others.

What Might Trump Say During the SOTU?

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Cartel

The unprecedented operation to try and capture the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) in Mexico by Mexican Special Forces and their military was ably assisted by U.S. intelligence. The leader, known as “El Mencho” was killed in the raid.

One of Trump’s campaign promises was to cut the flow of illicit drugs into the United States. He has taken the guardrails off in his attempt to follow through on that vow. The word is currently sitting at around 80%. The cartels are responding with massive force in Mexico, but this is something Trump will view as collateral damage. He’ll want to play up the U.S. role in eliminating a dangerous drug lord.

Supreme Court

This is a remarkably low number hovering in the mid-70s range, given how the Supreme Court just ruled against the Trump administration’s attempt to unilaterally install tariffs using what the court stated was a faulty application of the law.

Even more galling to the President is that two of his SCOUTS picks, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett, ruled against him in what he’ll see as a personal betrayal. Trump expects fealty. When he doesn’t get it, he unloads. SCOTUS members are expected to be present at the SOTU, so he’s almost assuredly going to say “Supreme Court.”

Somali/Somalia/Somalian

The aggressive ICE raids in Minnesota were partially spurred by an independent investigation into Somalian daycare centers and the money they were taking from the federal government, despite many not even seeming to exist. There is a growing Somali population in the state, and Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar, born in Somalia, is a frequent Trump foil. Her rising profile and polarizing personality make her an applause line for the GOP members present.

“Somali/Somalia/Somalian” is at around 50% or slightly lower.

It will be a shocker if he doesn’t say it.

Cheat/Cheater/Cheating

Current odds for Trump saying “cheat/cheater/cheating” are in the mid-40s.

While there is no obvious place for him to say this since it’s been generally accepted that he won handily in the 2024 election, he still enjoys airing previous complaints. It irritates him that he lost to Joe Biden in 2020, so it’s possible he’ll mention it in passing for one reason or another. Perhaps it will be in reference to the coming midterm elections as he sets the foundation to downplay the hammering the Democrats are widely expected to inflict on the GOP directly and, by extension, Trump.

Autopen/Auto Pen

It’s not the most exciting phraseology, but Trump likes taking potshots at his predecessor, Biden, and the 46th President’s frequent use of the autopen. The 45th and 47th President — Trump — just can’t resist these little asides that amuse him.

Odds are relatively low at around 30%, but it might be worthwhile given the potential profit.