When Will DHS be Funded Again? Odds from Prediction Markets

• The DHS shutdown has reached day 51, with Congress not set to return until the week of April 13th
• Amid the ongoing stall, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called on Speaker of the House Mike Johnson to end the House of Representatives’ recess early to reopen DHS
• Prediction markets have taken great interest in the matter, with a high trading volume on when the partial government shutdown will end

The record-breaking DHS shutdown has entered its 51st day, while the House and the Senate are in the middle of a two-week recess. The Senate did pass a bill to fund DHS, but the House left for its break before attempting to advance the bill. Now House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is calling for the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, to bring the House of Representatives back to session early to work on ending the shutdown.

Although TSA is now being paid through an executive order signed by President Trump, travelers are still experiencing long security lines and other delays as many airports are understaffed due to agents quitting or still calling out sick. The end of the spring break season will help ease tensions at the airports for the next several weeks, but with the FIFA World Cup starting in June, there is still pressure to get DHS funded sooner rather than later.

The looming influx of travelers and attention on U.S. travel during the World Cup is clearly on the President’s mind. Trump has endorsed a two-track plan to pass the bill presented by the Senate and fill in its gaps with a reconciliation bill to fund ICE and CBP that will only require 51 votes, instead of the standard 60, and gave Congress a June 1st deadline. While this makes the path to ending the shutdown easier, it does not guarantee it, with GOP fiscal hawks and moderates likely to be a hard sell on the reconciliation bill, especially with the midterms approaching.

Traders on prediction markets have rushed to take positions on when DHS will be funded again, now that a potential end is in sight for the first time in weeks. With Congress still out on recess for the next week, this could be the last chance for traders to find value in this market before meaningful progress is made to end the partial shutdown.

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When will the DHS Shutdown End?

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According to the markets, confidence that Hakeem Jeffries’ call to bring Congress back to session early and fund DHS immediately is low. Kalshi shows that an April 8th target date is currently less than a 1% implied win probability; the markets for the end of the shutdown are trending closer to before May 1st. After hitting a high of 99% when the Senate passed the funding bill, the market tanked down to 49% as the House went on recess before taking any action on it. However, it regained life, hitting 95%, on April 1st when President Trump endorsed a two-part plan to restore funding to DHS and ensure ICE and CBP will be separately funded for the next three years. That momentum has stalled a bit while Congress remains on its two-week break, but it is holding around 62% and 73%.

Virtually mirroring the rise and fall of the May 1st market is a slightly more optimistic contingent of traders that believe the shutdown will end before April 22nd. This market has reached similar highs, such as 99% when the Senate passed the funding bill, and even surpassed the May 1st market after the bill received Trump’s endorsement. It currently sits at a 51% implied win probability. The April 22nd deadline, combined with Congress likely not returning until the week of April 13th, puts a tight squeeze on this market, resulting in a “yes.”

The June 1st deadline that Trump issued on April 1st has re-solidified the “before June 1, 2026” market, which had dipped to its lowest point of 71.9%. While not as strong as it was in mid-March, this market has been hovering around 88% for the last week, and with the President’s given timeline, it could be a hedge option for some traders.

Will the DHS Shutdown End Before the Start of the World Cup?

President Trump’s deadline for Congress to end the shutdown by June 1st aligns with the thought that he does not want this to disrupt travel in the U.S. while the country welcomes an influx of international travelers for the FIFA World Cup. With over a month of matches taking place all over the U.S., many are hoping the country’s airport issues will be resolved by then. The market on Kalshi for the shutdown to end before “June 1, 2026” certainly looks like the safest option that can provide some value to traders.

However, now that President Trump has endorsed a plan to both pass the Senate’s bill and fund ICE and CBP, traders may find more value in the “before May 1, 2026” market. While that only gives the House roughly two weeks to pass the bill, there is an incentive to pass it quickly. The more time the bill sits around, the more time moderates and fiscal hawks in the GOP have to dwell on the concessions they are being asked to make in order to pass it. It could be a full-court press on the House Republicans to pass this bill immediately upon returning from their recess next week.