Who Will Leave Trump’s Cabinet First? See Who’s Favored in Latest Prediction Markets

• President Donald J. Trump’s second term has been less chaotic than the first in terms of cabinet turnover
• Nearly a year in, it is inevitable that some cabinet members leave either by choice or by being compelled to depart
• See the current odds to leave Trump’s cabinet first based on the prediction markets at Kalshi

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As the first year of President Donald J. Trump’s second term reaches its final month, speculation is rampant as to if and when a cabinet upheaval will commence.

There has not been the rampant turnover there was in the first Trump term when chaos and controversy reigned supreme. Still, several cabinet members are under fire for vastly different reasons: global, domestic, and personal. Let’s look at the latest odds based on the prediction markets at Kalshi.com and the likeliest casualties in a shakeup.

Odds for First Cabinet Departure in President Trump’s Second Term

Right off the bat, several names can be eliminated from leaving the administration because Trump forced them out. Only the biggest political junkies could even identify Stephen Miran or Chris Wright if they showed up at their homes making their Amazon delivery. Barring a conscious choice to depart, they’re safe.

For others, there are questions regarding their future.

Sean Duffy and Scott Bessent

The controversy swirling around Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy during the government shutdown and accompanying travel disruptions has subsided and he’s receded to the background. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had issues toward the end of summer when he reportedly threatened to physically assault another cabinet member, but that has been largely forgotten amid politically motivated criminal prosecutions, ICE raids, Venezuelan boat bombings, and a forthcoming tell-all book.

Pam Bondi

Attorney General Pam Bondi is a Trump loyalist who has been his protector as far back as the rampant investigations into his activities during the Biden administration. Now, she has overseen the prosecutions of perceived Trump enemies including former FBI Director James Comey and New York State Attorney General Letitia James. Their indictments were viewed as selective and vengeful. Trump would have no problem with that. What he might have a problem with is that a federal judge dismissed both cases due to the prosecutor having been unlawfully appointed.

Trump doesn’t want details. He wants results. And if the results are not to his liking, someone takes the fall. AG Bondi could be standing over the trapdoor at the wrong time.

Susie Wiles

White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles serves in the key role granting or denying access to the president and setting the daily agenda. The main reason Ms. Wiles is mentioned so prominently as a potential departure is the sheer stress of the job and that its shelf life is quite short. Trump had four chiefs of staff in his first term and those he tabbed would have been well advised not to get too comfortable in their office. So far, Wiles has been in place since the start of the second term. For no other reason, a change would be unsurprising, perhaps after the State of the Union.

Kristi Noem

Regarding the ICE raids, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem is drawing the public’s ire for her handling of the illegal immigration crackdown. The recent shooting of two Washington D.C. National Guard members, killing one and critically injuring another (allegedly perpetrated by an Afghan evacuee), has again put the spotlight on immigration and perhaps removed her from the hot seat.

Trump tends to stand behind those he likes and deems loyal. Secretary Noem has done precisely what the president has asked her to do. Her departure is unlikely in the near future.

RFK Jr.

The “tell-all book” mentioned above refers to American Canto by reporter Olivia Nuzzi, a journalist who truly gets immersed in her work to say the least. Ms. Nuzzi’s book is set to be released on Dec. 2 and gives lurid details regarding her involvement with current Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. during his failed presidential campaign. In the aftermath of her return to the public sphere following a self-imposed exile, complete with a glossy and journalistically questionable New York Times profile, her past relationships and intimate details came to light. That includes RFK Jr.

If RFK Jr. were accused of untoward behavior with Ms. Nuzzi, then perhaps Trump would have no choice but to ask for his resignation or outright fire him. But the relationship, whatever it was, seems to have been mutual and consensual. RFK Jr.’s controversial stances on vaccinations, medications, and food have not changed from when he was tabbed for the role. His beliefs are well-known. He’s vocal and does not run from them. The RFK Jr.-Nuzzi relationship is something Trump will chuckle at rather than see it as justification to remove his HHS secretary.

Pete Hegseth

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been under intense pressure since President Trump nominated him. His hard right views were seen as dangerous. In addition, as a former Fox News host, his experience for this job was nonexistent.

Still, he and the president were in lockstep on issues such as the “peace through strength” strategy to address conflict. Very early in his tenure, he was alleged to have shared sensitive information about U.S. military activities in Yemen on a Signal chat with unvetted family members and personal associates. Even then, there were calls for his resignation or termination, but Trump stood behind him.

Now, the Venezuelan boat strikes purportedly to eliminate drug traffickers is drawing intense scrutiny. He is accused of ordering that everyone on board of one target be killed. These are being categorized as extrajudicial and random attacks without proof that the boats were truly carrying drugs. The president has expressed his support for Hegseth. But with the midterm elections less than a year away and its results directly impacting the Trump agenda in the final two years of his presidency, it’s entirely conceivable that he would make a change to quiet the noise surrounding Secretary Hegseth.

Of all cabinet members, he is the most vulnerable. His departure would create the most attention and free Trump of a troublesome member of his cabinet heading for the midterms.