Who Will Trump Nominate as Fed Chair? See Who’s Favored in Latest Prediction Markets

• Fed chair Jerome Powell’s term is set to end in May 2026
• President Donald J. Trump, a frequent Powell antagonist, plans to name a replacement after the new year
• Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett is the overwhelming favorite to take over the Fed

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Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will depart as Fed Chair in May, or sooner if President Trump has his way. As Trump enters the final three years of his term, his selection will assuredly be someone who is more in line with his economic philosophy favoring lower rates. Powell has advocated and implemented stable rates to fight inflation.

Trump has repeatedly clashed with Powell, favoring a more aggressive approach to reducing rates to benefit borrowers. The next Fed chair will be a crucial pick for the president as he will prefer someone who shares his vision. Trump sought ways to remove Powell and mulled firing him, but the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 precluded the president from firing the Fed chair except in cases of serious misconduct, neglect of duty, or inefficiency — none of which could be pinned on Powell.

Here are the latest odds based on the prediction markets at Kalshi.com as to who might get the nod.

Odds for President Trump’s Nominee as Fed Chair

These are the reasonable names listed on Kalshi. Of course, there are others, but their inclusion is comparable to those who want to bet on the New York Jets to win the Super Bowl. In Week 14, it’s still theoretically possible since they’ve yet to be eliminated from NFL playoff contention, but it’s not gonna happen.

Those names include Jerome Powell being retained, Ron Paul, Donald Trump naming himself, and former Fed chair Janet Yellen.

Despite Trump’s penchant for doing the unexpected, the following are the viable and realistic names.

Kevin Hassett

Unlike many of Trump’s appointments, Hassett is a longtime Republican stalwart who served as an economic adviser on mainstream presidential campaigns, notably John McCain, George W. Bush, and Mitt Romney. He previously worked for President Trump as a senior adviser for data-driven decisions to respond to COVID.

He heads the National Economic Council (NEC) under Trump. If named to run the Fed, he is expected to be a conduit to the president’s preferences regarding economic policy. That includes aggressive, preemptive rate cuts accompanying lower corporate tax rates to stimulate the gross domestic product and job growth.

As a longtime GOP economic adviser, it’s possible that Hassett would revert to the fiscal conservatism and business friendly practices advocated by McCain, Bush, and Romney while keeping Trump’s trust.

Kevin Warsh

Warsh is a former member of the Board of Governors, serving from 2006 to 2011. He attended Stanford University studying economics and statistics, then graduated from Harvard Law School. He studied market economics and debt capital markets at MIT’s Sloan School of Management and Harvard Business School.

Warsh has pushed back against the belief that inflation results from the economy growing too much, suggesting that the Fed is bloated, stuck in the past, and interest rates should be lowered. He speaks Trump’s language, making him a potential pick should Trump sour on Hassett.

Christopher Waller

Waller has been a member of the Board of Governors since late 2020. Before that, he was an executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. He has an MA and PhD from Washington State University.

His candidacy to lead the Fed is under the radar, but The Economist stated its preference for Waller based on the reasoning that he is less partisan and more data-driven than Hassett would be. In Waller’s favor, he has come out in support of lower interest rates and has been particularly on board with Trump’s tariffs, believing their impact will hinder the U.S. economy only in the short term.

Scott Bessent

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been tasked with heading the search for the new Fed chair.

Could he “pull a Dick Cheney,” figuratively walking by a mirror and saying to himself, “Hmmmm…” as the recently deceased former vice president did when he was overseeing the search for George W. Bush’s running mate and taking the opportunity for himself?

Bessent is a businessman, not an economist. Trump is pressuring him to make a good pick after Steve Mnuchin, the president’s treasury secretary in his first term, recommended Powell and has endured Trump’s unending wrath because of it.

This is probably not going to happen.

Rick Rieder

Rieder is the chief investment officer at BlackRock and is supports lower interest rates. He believes that the GDP will grow substantially in 2026 based on productivity and company streamlining. Like the other contenders, he is suspicious of the perception that using interest rates to fight inflation. To him, it is an antiquated strategy that worked 40-plus years ago.

Rieder has an MBA from Trump’s alma mater, Wharton, so that could curry favor with the president.

The safest pick is obviously Hassett, but Trump’s showmanship could lead to him making an unexpected pick. If that is the case, then the less-heralded but well-regarded Waller might be the better choice when making a prediction. He has excellent credentials and would give Trump cover from taking full responsibility as he would with a more partisan choice like Hassett.