Will Mark Kelly, James Comey Be Charged With Federal Crimes? See the Latest Prediction Markets and Odds

• Prediction site Kalshi has opened a new market on whether certain high-profile politicos will be charged with a crime in 2026
• Mark Kelly, James Comey, Adam Schiff are all high on the list
• See the latest odds and betting markets on who will be charged with a federal crime next year

When six prominent Democrats, including Arizona senator Mark Kelly, published a video urging US service members not to obey “illegal orders”, it was inevitable that President Donald Trump would respond with his usual bravado. Prediction site Kalshi has now opened a market on whether Kelly, a former naval officer and NASA astronaut, will be charged with a federal crime before 2027, along with about twenty other Trump nemeses, including former FBI director James Comey, California senator Adam Schiff, pluss Hillary and Bill Clinton.

The graph and table, below, list the current odds and yes/no prices at Kalshi as of Tuesday, November 25.

Comey has the highest chance on the board so far, listed at an 88% chance with the “YES” price trading at an initial line of 88¢ on the dollar.

For those unfamiliar with prediction markets, every contract you purchase will either payout $1 or nothing when the market is settled. So, if Comey is charged with a federal crime before the end of 2026, “YES” contracts will return $1. If you purchased those contracts at 88¢, then you will only profit 12¢ per contract.

If he isn’t charged, then “NO” contracts will return $1. If you purchased those contracts at 18¢, then you will profit 82¢ per contract.

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Mark Kelly Unlikely to Be Charged with Federal Crime, According to Markets

While Kelly’s name has been in the news arguably more than anyone on this list, he is not among the most-likely to be charged, according to the opening lines. Right now, Kalshi users can buy “YES” on Kelly at 43¢, and no at a pricier 63¢.

That’s not a huge surprise, though. Legal experts tend to be in agreement that any proceedings against Kelly would be “dead on arrival“.

The other Democrats who released the video with Kelly – to wit, Chris Deluzio (Rep., Pennsylvania), Chrissy Houlahan (Rep., Pennsylvania), Elissa Slotkin (Sen., Michigan), Jason Crow (Rep, Colorado), Maggie Goodlander (Rep., New Hampshire) are not on the list at Kalshi (yet).

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