Will Trump Impose Martial Law During Second Term? Odds Say There’s a 21% Chance

• Prediction site Kalshi has posted a market on whether Donald Trump will impose martial law during his second term as president
• The “No” side is favored but “Yes” has been gaining momentum over the last two weeks
• See what the odds say about whether Trump will impose martial law before his term runs out in January 2028

Social media has been ablaze with claims that US President Donald Trump will impose martial law in the near future, specifically April 20th, 2025. Prediction site Kalshi.com recently posted a market on whether Trump would impose martial law at any point during his second term as president, which runs until January 20, 2028. The “No” side opened as a massive favorite but the “Yes” side has been gaining traction – and financial backing – ever since.

Chances Trump Imposes Martial Law During Second Term

President Can Use Insurrection Act to Impose Martial Law

Where has all this talk about martial law come from? It goes back to Inauguration Day, when Trump signed an executive order directing both Homeland Security and the Department of Defense to scrutinize the US/Mexico border and then report back on whether, in their opinion, the president should invoke the Insurrection Act (1807).

The Insurrection Act grants the president the power to call the military and National Guard into service:

• when requested by a state’s legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state,
• to address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law, or
• to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights.

In other words, the power to impose martial (a.k.a. military) law enforcement.

Do the Current Prediction Markets Accurately Reflect the Likelihood of Martial Law?

By most knowledgeable accounts, no. They current Kalshi prices and percentages seem to drastically overestimate the likelihood that Trump will actually impose martial law, at least in the near future. But note that the market is not limited to April 20th or even this year. It encompasses Trump’s entire second term.

Still, a recent fact check from Newsweek found that there isn’t any credible evidence that Trump is close to invoking the Insurrection Act. Rather, the potential of martial law picked up steam on social-media sites like TikTok, with hashtags like #martiallaw trending over the past few days.

If you’re in a state where Kalshi is operating, I wouldn’t hesitate to buy “No” contracts at the current 82¢ price, if you have the disposable income to do so. Your contracts couldn’t be settled until January 2028, though, and you’re only looking at an 21.95% return. (One of the best parts about a prediction site like Kalshi, of course, is that you can sell your contracts at any point to other users at any price you both agree to.)

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