Wisconsin Governor Odds Show Evers Slightly Favored Over Michels

• In the Wisconsin Governor race, incumbent Democrat Tony Evers is the odds-on -138 favorite to be re-elected
• Prior to Evers defeating Republican Scott Walker in 2018, the last 13 incumbents to seek re-election as Wisconsin Governor were all successful in defeating their opponent
• An incumbent Democrat hasn’t lost a Wisconsin Gubernatorial election since 1934

Tony Evers is seeking a second term as Governor of Wisconsin, and history is certainly siding with him.

Then again, Republican Tim Michels is more likely to be pointing to recent history in terms filling the Governor’s chair in the Cheese State.

On the one hand, no Democrat seeking re-election as Governor of Wisconsin has failed to do so since Albert G Schmedeman was defeated by Progressive Party candidate Phillip LaFollett in 1934. On the other hand, Democrat Evers first won election to the Governor’s chair in 2018 by unseating incumbent Republican Scott Walker.

That race was a close one – Evers won 49.5-48.4%. Oddsmakers are expecting the 2022 race to be equally tight. Evers is currently set as the -138 chalk to win re-election. Michels is given +100 odds of unseating the incumbent.

2022 Nevada Governor Election Odds

Odds from Bet365 as of August 29th.

Note that the odds quoted above are from Bet365, a sportsbook which is permitted to offer political futures in European and UK markets. This market is not open to US bettors.

Independent Joan Ellis Beglinger is also on the ballot in the Wisconsin Governor election.

At a betting line of -138, Evers and the Democrats are being given an implied probability of victory that works out to 57.98%. A $10 wager on him would return a payout of just $17.20 should they be the party that wins the 2022 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election.

The people of Wisconsin will go to the polls to elect a new Governor on November 8, 2022.

Evers Extremely Popular With Democrats

Evers ran unopposed in the Democratic Primary for Governor. Prior to running for Governor, Evers served as Wisconsin’s Superintendent of Public Instruction from 2009 -19.

An educator, Evers lists as his main goals for the state to improve the public education system. He also wants to make health care more affordable and to upgrade Wisconsin’s roads and bridges. During his tenure as Governor, Evers has vetoed five separate bills that would have restricted access to reproductive healthcare in Wisconsin.

We made a lot of progress in my first term, but there is still a lot we can get done. From funding schools and expanding healthcare access to tackling rising costs, I have a plan for Wisconsin. We’re going to keep doing the right thing.

— Tony Evers (@Tony4WI) August 29, 2022

He’s in favor of both stronger background checks for gun purchases and the legalization of marijuana in the state.

Citing a $5 billion state budget surplus, Evers is proposing a $600 million tax cut to Wisconsin voters. The Wisconsin State Legislature recently rejected a tax cut proposed by Evers. That cut would’ve seen Wisconsin residents each receive a $150 rebate check.

Michels Has Trump Support

In what’s becoming a commonplace occurrence in state governor elections, the Republican candidate is garnering the backing of former US President Donald Trump. Recently, though, Evers is accusing Michels of attempting to back away from his Trump support. The former President in under investigation for possible charges under the Espionage Act. Michels is refusing to discuss Trump’s false claims that the 2020 Presidential election was fraudulent.

Michels emerged the winner from a four-person Republican Primary. He defeated Rebecca Kleefisch. She was serving as Walker’s Lieutenant-Governor during his third term.

Tim Michels, endorsed by Trump as Wis. governor

Is it still that candidate's selling feature? Hoo boy.

— illusory tenant 🇺🇦 (@illusory_tenant) August 26, 2022

Michels is a millionaire construction executive. The year 2004 saw Michels making a failing bid for the US Senate. He also ended up losing a 1998 run for the Wisconsin State Senate. He’s investing more than $8 million of his personal fortune into his campaign. That’s the majority of the $12 million of fundraising he’s done so far. By contrast, Evers has been able to fundraise more than $27 million.

Michels is billing himself as a political outsider. He’s promising to shake up the system. It’s much like Trump’s platform during his run for President in 2016. And again, just like Trump, Michels is remaining vague on the details of how he will achieve this objective.

Wisconsin Governor Election Prediction

Most political punditry sites are viewing the Wisconsin Governor’s race as a toss up. Averaging out the most recent polling data, it’s showing Evers with a 2-point lead over Michels.

Wisconsin Governor:

Tony Evers (D-inc) 48%
Tim Michels (R) 48%

.@trafalgar_group, 1,091 LV, 8/22-25https://t.co/RcuhbAGs0v

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 28, 2022

Election prognosticators Race To The White House are offering Evers a 57.8% chance of victory. They are projecting that he’ll win the Wisconsin Governor election by 1.6 points over Michels.

Pick: Tony Evers (-138)