2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix Odds, NASCAR Picks & Best Value at COTA

• Shane van Gisbergen is the heavy favorite at +110 in the DuraMAX Grand Prix odds at COTA
• Tyler Reddick looks to make it three straight wins after taking both Daytona and Atlanta
• See below for early 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix odds, NASCAR picks, and best value at Circuit of the Americas

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Austin, Texas, for its first road course race of 2026. The DuraMAX Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas goes green at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 1, on FOX.

COTA is a 2.4-mile, 17-turn road course that resembles a European Formula 1 layout more than anything else on the NASCAR schedule. Qualifying, practice speed, and road course experience carry far more weight here than they do at Daytona or Atlanta. The track has been on the Cup Series calendar since 2021, and the racing has gotten cleaner each year as drivers learned the circuit.

Tyler Reddick has won both races so far in 2026 and holds a 40-point lead in the standings over Bubba Wallace. The 23XI Racing driver, Wallace, and Zane Smith are the only three with two top-10 finishes through two races. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series odds have shifted significantly after Reddick’s hot start, but this week belongs to SVG.

2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix Odds

Van Gisbergen at +110 carries a 47.6% implied probability to win. No other driver is closer than +400, making this the widest gap between favorite and field on any race board this season.

His Trackhouse Racing teammate Connor Zilisch sits second at +400 in his rookie Cup Series campaign, and nobody else is better than +900.

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DuraMAX Grand Prix Picks

There’s no way around it. SVG is the story this week. The Trackhouse Racing road course ace won five consecutive road course races in 2025 and posted a 140 driver rating across those six starts, with a 1.83 average finish and 2.17 average start. The Kiwi averaged leading 50.17 laps per road course race last season. The next closest driver was Reddick at 13.7.

COTA is actually the one road course where van Gisbergen hasn’t won yet. The No. 88 finished sixth here last year but still had the second-best average running position (3.92) and led the second-most laps (23). His speed over the first two segments ranked first in both. Getting SVG at plus money feels like a window that’s closing fast.

William Byron at +1200 is the best insurance play if SVG stumbles. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has three straight top-5 finishes at COTA with an average finish of 5.0, and he won the race in 2024. Byron ranks second only to SVG in 100,000-race simulations with a 13.1% win probability, putting his fair value closer to +665. At 12-to-1, there’s a lot of meat on the bone.

Christopher Bell (+1200) is the defending race winner and has finished top 3 in three of his four NextGen starts at COTA. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver’s only bad outing was a 31st in 2023 when he was collected in a crash. Bell had the fastest car late in the 2024 race and likely would have won with a few more laps. He also posted the second-best average finish (6.2) and second-best driver rating on road courses last season behind SVG.

• DuraMAX Grand Prix Pick to Win: Shane van Gisbergen (+110 at Caesars)
• Value Pick to Win: William Byron (+1200 at Caesars)

DuraMAX Grand Prix Best Value & Props

Chris Buescher top 10 at +120 might be the safest play on the entire board. The RFK Racing veteran has finished top 10 in 17 of his last 21 road course races, an 81% hit rate. At COTA specifically, the No. 17 Ford has posted 7th, 8th, and 8th in the last three starts. Buescher’s road course average finish (9.1) since February 2023 trails only SVG, and at plus money that consistency is mispriced.

Alex Bowman top 10 at +130 is another play backed by a perfect track record. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has gone 5-for-5 in top-10 finishes at COTA with results of 8th, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 9th. Bowman ranks fourth in average driver rating (102.85) over the last four races here. Plus money on a driver with a 100% hit rate at this track is rare.

Tyler Reddick top 5 at +200 is a strong play given his COTA history. The 23XI Racing driver has gone 4-for-4 in top-5 finishes here with results of 5th, 1st, 5th, and 3rd. Reddick leads all drivers in average finish (3.5), average running position (5.0), and driver rating (121.1) at COTA over the last four races. Two wins to open 2026 only add to the momentum.

One matchup to target: Chase Elliott over Kyle Larson at -115. Elliott is 4-for-4 beating his Hendrick Motorsports teammate at COTA in the NextGen era with an 11.0 average finish compared to Larson’s 21.0. The No. 5 Chevy hasn’t finished better than 14th at COTA in a NextGen car, and four of Larson’s six road course finishes in 2025 were 32nd or worse.

DuraMAX Grand Prix Picks:

• Top 10 Bets: William Byron (+1200 at Caesars), Alex Bowman (+120 at Caesars)
• Top 5 Bet: Tyler Reddick (+200 at Caesars)
• H2H Pick: Chase Elliott over Kyle Larson (-115 at Caesars)

 If you want to learn more about NASCAR betting basics, check out our full guide.