2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 Early Odds, Predictions & Longshot Picks

• The 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 takes place Sunday at Phoenix Raceway with early NASCAR odds favoring Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin
• Tyler Reddick looks to become the first driver to win four straight races to open a season
• Keep reading for early Straight Talk Wireless 500 odds, predictions and longshot picks

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Phoenix Raceway on Sunday, March 8th for the Straight Talk Wireless 500. The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.

Phoenix is a one-mile irregular oval with progressive banking between eight and 11 degrees in the corners and just three degrees on the straights. It plays like a hybrid between a short track and an intermediate, and dominant cars tend to stay dominant here. The driver who has led the most laps has won eight of the last 13 Phoenix races.

This is the first true oval of the 2026 season after stops at Daytona, Atlanta and COTA. The early Straight Talk Wireless 500 odds have Ryan Blaney at +475, with Denny Hamlin close behind at +500. Christopher Bell, the two-time defending winner of the spring Phoenix race, sits at +600. These lines could move after qualifying Saturday, so it pays to look at the board now.

Below you’ll find the full Straight Talk Wireless 500 odds board, our best bets and longshot picks for Sunday’s 312-lap event.

Straight Talk Wireless 500 Early Odds

Blaney’s +475 carries an implied probability of 17.4%, while Hamlin’s +500 comes in at 16.7%. Bell at +600 (14.3%) rounds out a tight top tier in the early Straight Talk Wireless 500 odds.

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Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook as of March 6. Register with the BetMGM bonus code to wager on the 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500. Check out our NASCAR betting basics guide before placing your first wager.

Straight Talk Wireless 500 Predictions

Phoenix Raceway rewards the fastest car, and that has been Christopher Bell lately. The No. 20 Toyota has won two straight spring Phoenix events and led a combined 298 laps across his last four starts here. His 4.5 average finish over that stretch leads all active Cup drivers.

Bell picked up a third-place run at COTA last Sunday to get his 2026 season rolling, and now he returns to the track where he has been at his best.

Blaney won the 2025 Championship Race here in overtime and has four runner-up finishes at this oval since 2022. The No. 12 Ford carries a 70-percent top-10 rate in Gen-7 Phoenix races. Hamlin led 208 laps from pole last November before a late caution shifted the outcome, and he holds over 1,100 career laps led at this track.

Larson has top 5’s in five of his last six Phoenix starts and a 65-percent career top-10 rate here. He and Chill Bill Byron (+700) will both be in the mix. But Bell’s recent numbers give him the edge on the early board, and the Joe Gibbs Racing short-track package has been tough to beat at this oval.

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• Straight Talk Wireless 500 Prediction to Win: Christopher Bell (+600 at BetMGM)

Straight Talk Wireless 500 Best Bets

Josh Berry — Top 5 (+275)

The No. 21 Wood Brothers driver grabbed a fourth-place finish in this race one year ago and backed it up with a seventh in the Championship Race. That gives him three top-10 finishes in five career Cup starts at this oval. Berry built his reputation on short tracks in late models, and Phoenix’s low banking and tight confines play right into that background.

• Josh Berry Top 5 Finish (+275 at BetMGM)

Chris Buescher — Top 10 (+110)

The No. 17 RFK Ford has three top 5’s and five top 10’s in his last eight Phoenix starts, with a 6.6 average finish over his most recent five-race stretch. Phoenix is hard to pass, and RFK tends to play pit strategy games that work well at this track. At plus money for a top 10, that recent consistency makes this a solid play.

• Chris Buescher Top 10 Finish (+110 at BetMGM)

Straight Talk Wireless 500 Longshot Picks

Joey Logano at +1300 to win is the longshot that sticks out. The No. 22 Penske Ford is a four-time Phoenix winner and has led 522 laps over the last 10 races at this track, easily the most of any driver. He finished fourth here last November and has three wins and a runner-up since 2020 alone. His +1300 price implies just a 7.1% chance, but his track history puts the true probability closer to 10-12%.

A couple other names worth a sprinkle: Kyle Busch at +5000 has three career Phoenix victories, 28 top 10’s in 41 starts and a 68-percent top-10 rate at this track. Rowdy posted eighth- and fifth-place finishes here last season. Brad Keselowski at +3000 finished runner-up here last November and carries a 46-percent career top-10 rate across 33 Phoenix starts.

Straight Talk Wireless 500 Longshot Picks:

• Joey Logano to Win (+1300 at BetMGM)
• Sprinkle: Kyle Busch to Win (+5000 at BetMGM)
• Sprinkle: Brad Keselowski to Win (+3000 at BetMGM)