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Daytona 500 Odds, Picks and Predictions 2023

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Updated Feb 15, 2023 · 8:16 PM PST

NASCAR Cup Series driver William Byron
Nov 6, 2022; Avondale, Arizona, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver William Byron (24) races during the Cup championship at Phoenix Raceway. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NASCAR season begins the races that count with the Daytona 500 set to run on Sunday, February 19th, 2023
  • The contending favorites include Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott
  • Below are the Daytona 500 betting odds and picks ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race

NASCAR heads down, for the opening points race of the 2023 season. The Daytona International Speedway is a 2.5-mile “tri-oval” superspeedway track. The race distance totals 500 miles (200 laps). Now, who can get around those high-banked 31 degree turns on Sunday without getting collected in the “big one”?

The first race is two weeks after the Clash At The Coliseum where Martin Truex Jr. stole the show and pulled away from the field in Los Angeles.

The table below lists the full slate of NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds (win, podium finish, and top-ten finish). Under the table, find the Daytona 500 predictions and best bets for this weekend’s NASCAR action.

Daytona 500 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Ten Odds
Denny Hamlin +1100 +350 -112
Ryan Blaney +1200 +380 -104
Chase Elliott +1300 +400 -104
Joey Logano +1400 +425 +115
Kyle Busch +1400 +425 +130
Kyle Larson +1400 +425 +115
William Byron +1600 +475 +130
Ross Chastain +1600 +475 +130
Brad Keselowski +1800 +550 +140
Bubba Wallace +1800 +550 +140
Austin Cindric +2000 +600 +150
Tyler Reddick +2200 +700 +160
Kevin Harvick +2500 +750 +175
Martin Truex Jr. +2500 +750 +195
Christopher Bell +2800 +850 +185
Austin Dillon +2800 +850 +185
Alex Bowman +3000 +900 +195
Chase Briscoe +3000 +900 +195
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +3300 +900 +195
Chris Buescher +3300 +1000 +195
Erik Jones +3300 +1000 +205

Odds as of February 15th at Barstool Sportsbook. 

Hamlin enters this race as a slight +1100 favorite to win, followed by Ryan Blaney at +1200.  Keep in mind, superspeedway courses feature wide-open and wild racing. Anyone can win and usually the winner survives a bunch of wrecks the best. Look at Austin Cindric last year. He got a push from teammate Ryan Blaney and held off Bubba Wallace before even more wrecks took place.


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NASCAR drivers will start their engines on the 2.5-mile, 65-65-70 stage lap setup when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning just after 2:30 pm ET on FOX.

Denny Hamlin a Slight Betting Favorite On Sunday

Yes, Denny Hamlin maintains as favorite for Sunday’s race at Daytona. The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing car has won here three times in all. The last came in 2020.

Now, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott got listed at +1200. The DraftKings Sportsbook odds are mostly the same as other sites with some shorter numbers on Ryan Preece at +3000. Again, watch for Martin Truex Jr. He got out of the blocks fast last year and is at +3000 on DraftKings. He looks more like the racer of old in the early going.

Daytona 500 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2022 Austin Cindric – Team Penske Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Brad Keselowski – RFK Racing
2021 Michael McDowell – Front Row Motorsports Racing Alex Bowman – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
2020 Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Ricky Stenhouse– JTG Daugherty Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
2019 Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing William Byron – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Matt DiBenedetto – Leavine Family Racing
2018 Austin Dillon – Richard Childress Racing Alex Bowman – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Ryan Blaney – Team Penske

The Points Season Starts Sunday

Sports bettors still love Chase Elliott. However, defending champion Joey Logano is only fifth (+1000) in the NASCAR Cup Series odds. Remember, the last repeat winner of the NASCAR Championship is someone making his return. That man is Jimmie Johnson who won five straight years and seven times overall.

Last year’s Daytona 500 was the first trip for the new race car. The “Next Gen” showed some kinks as there were seven cautions and some tire issues which would plague the cars especially in the early portion of the season. Ford made some tweaks in the offseason. Will that impact then come the day of the race?

Hendrick still figures to be fast in qualifying as they have won seven of the last nine poles. Consider shopping around sites, Hendrick cars range from +900 to +1100 for the pole at Barstool but better numbers may pop up elsewhere.

Daytona 500 Predictions & Picks

So, the weather expects to be Sunny on Sunday with temperatures around the 80-85 range.

Do not expect more than 15 cautions like in Los Angeles. Qualifying and “The Duels” will give us a better picture of where some of the picks are trending.

Aric Almirola (+3500), Chris Buescher (+3300), and Michael McDowell (+195 top ten) intrigue us greatly for longer shot picks.

Because of the fact this is a superspeedway, expect lots of carnage and unexpected results. A driver like William Byron could sneak up and snatch a victory especially if there is no overtime.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick: William Byron to Win (+1600 – Barstool)
  • Other Contenders: Kyle Larson (+1400), Bubba Wallace (+1800), Denny Hamlin (+1100), Kyle Busch (+1400)
  • Longshots:  Martin Truex Jr. (+3000 – DraftKings), Aric Almirola (+3500), Chase Briscoe(+3000)


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