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Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix Odds & Picks 2023

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Racing

Updated Sep 20, 2023 · 8:46 AM PDT

Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton celebrating a win
Jun 19, 2022; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton of United Kingdom showers Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz of Spain with champagne after the Montreal Grand Prix at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports
  • Max Verstappen is favored to return to the top of podium at Japanese Grand Prix
  • Carlos Sainz Jr. lags in wake of win in Singapore
  • Read on for the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix odds, picks and predictions ahead of Sunday’s race

Max Verstappen will be looking to reclaim his familiar perch atop the podium when Formula 1 action returns this weekend with the running of the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix. Verstappen saw his epic win streak snapped at 10 races with his fifth-place finish at last weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix, which also marked the first time in 16 races that neither Verstappen nor his Red Bull Racing teammate Sergio Perez have claimed the checkered flag.

While Red Bull looks for answers, Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz Jr. arrives in Japan looking to build on a master class drive to victory last weekend, which also marked his second straight trip to the podium.

Here’s a look at all the odds and trends ahead of the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix, which feature a late-night start time of 1:00am on Sunday morning at Suzuka International Racing Course.

Odds to Win 2023 Japanese Grand Prix

Driver Odds to Win Odds to Finish Top Three Odds to Finish Top Six Odds to Finish Top Ten
Max Verstappen -360 -700 -800 -1100
Sergio Perez +1100 -165 -550 -750
Lando Norris +1200 +135 -500 -550
Lewis Hamilton +1800 +165 -400 -550
George Russell +1800 +285 -330 -550
Charles Leclerc +1800 +285 -225 -550
Carlos Sainz Jr. +1800 +285 -225 -400
Oscar Piastri +3000 +300 -200 -450
Fernando Alonso +6000 +750 +135 -350
Lance Stroll +25000 +6500 +1400 +120
Pierre Gasly +30000 +6500 +1000 -105
Esteban Ocon +30000 +6500 +1000 -105
Yuki Tsunoda +50000 +15000 +4000 -105
Valtteri Bottas +50000 +15000 +4500 +400
Liam Lawson +50000 +15000 +4500 +185
Alex Albon +50000 +15000 +2200 +185
Nico Hulkenberg +70000 +20000 +8000 +650
Kevin Magnussen +70000 +20000 +8000 +650
Zhou Guanyu +70000 +20000 +8000 +600
Logan Sargeant +80000 +25000 +8000 +1200

Red Bull’s disappointing performance in Singapore is not reflected on the Japanese Grand Prix odds, where Max Verstappen leads the way as a -260 favorite, well ahead of teammate Sergio Perez at +1100. Lando Norris sits third at +1200, followed by Lewis Hamilton at +1800, while Carlos Sainz joins Charles Leclerc and George Russell at +800.


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Can Red Bull Bounce Back from Singapore Setback?

Red Bull Racing has tried to put the best facer possible on last week’s relatively dismal performance by Verstappen and Perez. Both drivers struggled with pace in qualifying, with neither advancing to Q3 for the first time this season. Already at a disadvantage on the starting grid, the dup also struggled to make up ground on the tight track at Marina Bay. And even when Verstappen managed to climb to second place while other drivers pitted, he was unable to fend off rivals like Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris, who easily overtook him.

Things went no better for “Checo”, who was never a checkered flag threat during his run to eighth place. The duo remain perched atop the F1 odds, and with good reason. Verstappen and Perez finished one-two on a rain-soaked track in Japan last year, and still sport the fastest cars on the circuit. But apart from their -125 odds to produce a double podium finish, there is little value in wagering on Red Bull until last week’s pace issues are addressed.

Sainz Undervalued in Wake of Singapore Win

The big beneficiary of Red Bull’s woes in Singapore was Carlos Sainz Jr. Fresh off a third-place drive two weeks earlier in Italy, Sainz dominated the weekend, finishing tops in qualifying for a second straight week, before leading virtually wire to wire on race day. Now poised to match a personal best of three straight podium appearances, the 29-year-old Spaniard must first overcome a shaky track record in Japan.

In addition to crashing out on the opening lap last year, Sainz has managed to finish better than 10th just once in seven appearances at Suzuka. If weather cooperates, and he can manage to maintain the pace he had on straights last week, Sainz is well positioned to extend his streak.

In addition to offering value as a lengthy +1800 to claim the checkered flag, Sainz should not be overlooked as a +1200 wager to be the top qualifier. However, he offers equal value as a +450 to fail to be classified on Sunday.

Japanese Grand Prix Recent Winners

Year Driver Margin of Victory
2022 Max Verstappen – Red Bull Racing 27.066 sec
2020-2021 Race Cancelled Due to COVID-19 Pandemic
2019 Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes 13.343 sec
2018 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 12.919 sec
2017 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 1.211 sec
2016 Nico Rosberg – Mercedes 4.978 sec
2015 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 18.964 sec
2014 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 9.180 sec

Stroll Injured, Alonso Hits Speed Bump

It is not yet reflected on the Japanese Grand Prix odds, but Aston Martin announced late on Tuesday that Lance Stroll will not be behind the wheel in Japan, as he continues to recover from a scary collision with a barrier during qualifying in Singapore.


Stroll will be replaced by Formula 2 champion Felipe Drugovich, who will be making his F1 debut. Drugovich’s arrival could provide a shake up at Aston Martin, which has faded since enjoying a fast start to the season.

Fernando Alonso has particularly struggled. Fresh off a season-worst 15th-place performance in Singapore, the two-time F1 champion has reached the podium just once in seven races after finishing top three in six of eight outings. Alonso has reached the podium in Japan on four previous occasions, including a win in 2008, but should be looked at no further than a +135 bet to crack the top six.

Japanese Grand Prix Picks:

  • Carlos Sainz Jr. podium finish (+285)
  • Red Bull double podium (-125)
  • Fernando Alonso top six finish (+135)
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