Formula One 2019 Mexican Grand Prix Odds & Picks
| Driver | Mexican GP Odds |
|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) | +175 |
| Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) | +175 |
| Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari) | +300 |
| Max Verstappen (Red Bull) | +350 |
| Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes) | +500 |
| Alexander Albon (Red Bull) | +5000 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. (McLaren) | +100000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo (Renault) | +100000 |
| Lando Norris (McLaren) | +100000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg (Renault) | +100000 |
*Odds taken 10/22/19
Verstappen Tempers Expectations
The 21-year-old has enjoyed an impressive season driving for Red Bull Racing, recording a pair of wins. But with Ferrari enjoying a late-season charge, Verstappen has been open about his tempered expectations for success over the final four races of the season, stating that podium finishes are the best that Red Bull can hope for down the stretch.
“I don’t think there’s one track left this season where we can do a particularly good job.”
Max Verstappen has little hope left for 2019.https://t.co/1YGBOI4H7u #F1 pic.twitter.com/COrQepMGP6
— Planet F1 (@Planet_F1) October 19, 2019
Verstappen’s past success in Mexico cannot be overlooked. Verstappen has been a perennial threat in qualifying at this event, and has started from the front row in each of the past two years, making him an attractive +400 wager to grab the pole position.
However, the young Dutchman also lags on the odds to reach the podium for a sixth time this season, sitting fourth in the odds to finish top three at -175.
Mexican Grand Prix Recent Winners
| Year | Driver | Margin of Victory |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Max Verstappen – Red Bull Racing | 17.316 sec |
| 2017 | Max Verstappen – Red Bull Racing | 19.678 sec |
| 2016 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 8.354 sec |
| 2015 | Nico Rosberg – Mercedes | 1.954 sec |
Leclerc Dominating the Odds
Ferrari’s rising star, Charles Leclerc, once again dominates the race-day odds. The 22-year-old joins Lewis Hamilton as a +175 co-favorite to claim his third victory of the season despite a seventh-place finish at the Japanese GP two weeks ago, which marks the worst finish of any race he has completed this season.
However, the Monte Carlo native continues to be outstanding in qualifying. Leclerc has started five of the past six races from the front row, seizing the pole position on four occasions, and is expected to lead the field in qualifying once again on Saturday, perched as a +100 favorite.
Vettel Poised to Continue Strong Second Half
Leclerc’s Ferrari teammate, Sebastian Vettel, is also poised to continue a strong second half to his campaign. The four-time F1 champion earned his first victory of the season at last month’s Singapore Grand Prix, and is coming off a second-place performance at Suzuka, which marks his eighth trip to the podium this season.
Mexican GP coming up this weekend. Throwback to when Sebastian Vettel stopped Max Verstappen from taking his record of being the youngest ever pole sitter in F1. pic.twitter.com/DExlrJjYsx
— taylor (@tayIordp) October 21, 2019
The 32-year-old also turned in a second-place finish at Mexico a year ago, after starting from the No. 4 spot on the grid, and sits just ahead of Verstappen as a +300 bet to pick up his second win of the season, and a +275 second favorite to claim the pole position.
2019 Mexican Grand Prix Pole Position Odds
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Charles Leclerc | +100 |
| Sebastian Vettel | +275 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +400 |
| Max Verstappen | +400 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +1200 |
| Alexander Albon | +10000 |
Mercedes Rivalry Expected to Continue in Japan
But all eyes are likely to be on Lewis Hamilton, who is poised to clinch a sixth career Formula One championship this weekend. With a third-place finish at Suzuka, Hamilton eliminated all but one rival from contention for this year’s title, Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas.
The 34-year-old Englishman can now clinch the title with a win at Japan, combined with a sixth-place or worse finish by Bottas.
Valtteri Bottas: Need to be very lucky to beat Lewis Hamilton
"I don't really give up on anything as long as there's a theoretical chance so there's no point in that."https://t.co/G1yhMbKpRE #F1 pic.twitter.com/RJrlfRRgtZ
— Planet F1 (@Planet_F1) October 21, 2019
However, Bottas may not yet be ready to concede the title to his teammate. The 30-year-old Finn is coming off his third victory of the season at Suzuka, and has finished on the podium in four of his last five outings.
That recent success, combined with the growing rivalry between the Mercedes teammates, makes Bottas an attractive +250 wager to finish among the top three at Mexico for a third time in five years. He’s also an intriguing +500 dark horse to claim his first victory at this event.
Best Bets: Charles Leclerc to take pole position (+100); Valtteri Bottas to finish top three (+250)
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
