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NASCAR Instacart 500 Odds and Picks

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Racing

Updated Mar 11, 2021 · 6:46 AM PST

Instacart 500 Kyle Busch
Josh Bilicki (52) and Kyle Busch (18) drive during a NASCAR Cup Series auto race Sunday, March 7, 2021, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)
  • The Instacart 500 is set for Sunday, March 14th, 2021 with the race starting at 3:30 PM EST
  • Chase Elliot is the favorite to win in Phoenix at +550 odds
  • Which drivers are the best bets for this Sunday’s race? Check out the odds, analysis, and picks below

The NASCAR drivers head to Phoenix Raceway this weekend for the Instacart 500. The race will take place on Sunday, March 14th, 2021 at 3:30 PM ET. Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick are two drivers that consistently do well on this track but only one of them is among our picks for this week.

Read on to find out why as we make our predictions for Sunday’s race.

2021 Instacart 500 Odds

Driver Odds To Win Top 3 Odds Top 10 Odds
Chase Elliott +550 +160 -360
Brad Keselowski +600 +175 -335
Denny Hamlin +650 +190 -315
Kevin Harvick +650 +190 -315
Kyle Busch +800 +225 -275
Joey Logano +800 +225 -275
Kyle Larson +900 +250 -250
Martin Truex Jr. +1100 +300 -200
Ryan Blaney +1600 +400 -150
William Byron +2000 +500 -134
Kurt Busch +2800 +750 +105
Alex Bowman +3000 +800 +115
Christopher Bell +3300 +850 +120
Aric Almirola +5000 +1200 +175
Matt DiBenedetto +5000 +1200 +175
Tyler Reddick +6600 +1600 +230
Cole Custer +8000 +1800 +270
Austin Dillon +8000 +1800 +270
Ryan Newman +8000 +2000 +350
Bubba Wallace +10000 +2000 +350
Chase Briscoe +12500 +2500 +400

Odds taken Mar. 10 at DraftKings

Bet on Kyle Busch?

Kyle Busch has had a lukewarm start to the season. Two years ago in 2019, when he won the championship, he had already registered a second, a sixth, and a third before winning in Phoenix. Last year, in a season in which he struggled, his initial results went 34th, 15th, second, and third.

So far this season, Busch was 14th in the Daytona 500, 35th on the Road Course, 10th in Miami, and third in Las Vegas last weekend. So why roll with him here? To start, he appears to be trending in the right direction. Secondly, he has a great history at Phoenix Raceway. Kyle Busch finds himself in the Top 10 of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series odds.

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Since 2018, no driver has a better average finish than Busch’s 3.33 at Phoenix Raceway. Overall, he’s second-best to only Kevin Harvick among active drivers. Busch placed 11th in the fall race in Phoenix last year but prior to that, had five straight results in the top three, and nine of his last 10 were in the top four. Generally speaking, he’s always a good bet in Phoenix.

Pick: Kyle Busch To Win (+800)

Look at Larson for Props

Kyle Larson obviously had the off-track issues last season (racial slur) that landed him a severe punishment, but he appears to have put that behind him. He’s started the year incredibly well, finishing 10th at the Daytona 500, then finishing fourth in Miami, and winning last week’s race in Las Vegas.

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Larson only has 13 starts at Phoenix Raceway, but over time, he’s progressively improved. He’s been in the top six in each of his last four starts as well as six in his last eight. He’s not a bad bet to win this race, but a safer choice is a wager on the Top 10 prop. That makes sense the way he’s driving these days.

Pick: Kyle Larson Top 10 (-250)

Instacart 500 Past Winners

Year Driver
2020 Joey Logano
2019 Kyle Busch
2018 Kevin Harvick
2017 Ryan Newman
2016 Kevin Harvick

Pass on Keselowski

Keselowski is up there with the favorites this week, but it might be a good decision to avoid him. He’s been quite hot and cold on the year, finishing fifth or better in two races, while also finishing 13th or worse in the other two. It feels like there isn’t enough value with such short odds.

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On top of that, take a look at his history on this track. Keselowski has never won at Phoenix Raceway. He does have a pair of second-place finishes – and those are two results in his last five appearances here – but his other three are 10th or worse. Overall, he’s placed 10th or worse on this track in seven of his last 10 appearances here. Pass on him for this week.

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