- Martin Truex Jr. is the favorite this week at the Federated Auto Parts 400 on Saturday, September 11th, 2021
- The “Race For The Chase” continues with 11 more spots to fill
- We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of Saturday’s race in Richmond
NASCAR heads to Richmond with a Saturday night race. This is after the race at Darlington, where Denny Hamlin found a way to finally win a race in 2021. Just like that, the No. 11 driver has advanced to the round-of-12. Some drivers definitely helped and hurt their chances which will add to the urgency of the race on the short track. Martin Truex Jr. is the current favorite at +550 in the Federated Auto Parts 400 odds, but Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and several others are close when it comes to odds.
Let’s take a look at the Federated Auto Parts 400 odds from Richmond and figure out which drivers are the best bets.
NASCAR Federated Auto Parts 400 Odds
|Driver||Odds to Win at DraftKings||Odds to Finish Top Three||Odds to Finish Top Five|
|Martin Truex Jr.||+550||+180||-125|
Odds as of September 9th
Martin Truex Jr. Very Slight Favorite at Richmond
NASCAR drivers will run on the 0.75-mile Richmond Motor Speedway when the flag drops for the Saturday night race beginning around 7:30 PM EST. The fact that it is the 20th anniversary of September 11th is very significant.
At Darlington, Martin Truex Jr. kind of just lurked around and ended up with a top-five finish. Richmond represents a different animal entirely. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has led the most laps over the past three seasons on the track at a percentage of 32.5. This includes a couple of wins in the past six starts and five top-ten finishes.
No one should be surprised that Truex Jr. is again a +550 favorite. Maybe, some should be more mindful that so many drivers are right around the No. 19 driver. Seven drivers have +1000 or shorter odds on Saturday night to win the race outright.
Now, part of the reason why the numbers are so bunched up is this.
Kyle Larson is on the pole for Saturday night's Cup Series playoff race at Richmond. Denny Hamlin starts second, Martin Truex Jr. third, Kurt Busch fourth and Kevin Harvick fifth. pic.twitter.com/vh5EVkfZYq
— Jordan Bianchi (@Jordan_Bianchi) September 8, 2021
It just shows that Kyle Larson has the car to compete with Truex Jr. (who starts third by the way). Truex Jr. is sandwiched in by Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin. Kevin Harvick will start fifth.
Also, the middle race of this three-race trilogy is another one that the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has much success in. He led 108 laps at Richmond as well in the Spring (finished fifth). His consistency and ability to excel on the course, along with five straight top-five results at Richmond give him a slight edge.
Federated Auto Parts 400 Recent Winners
|Year||Race Winner||Pole Position||Most Laps Led|
|2020||Brad Keselowski – Team Penske||Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing||Brad Keselowski – Team Penske|
|2019||Martin Truex Jr. — Joe Gibbs Racing||Brad Keselowski – Team Penske||Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing|
|2018||Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing||Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing||Martin Truex Jr. — Furniture Row Racing|
|2017||Kyle Larson — Chip Ganassi Racing||Matt Kenseth — Joe Gibbs Racing||Martin Truex Jr. — Furniture Row Racing|
|2016||Denny Hamlin — Joe Gibbs Racing||Denny Hamlin — Joe Gibbs Racing||Martin Truex Jr. — Furniture Row Racing|
The race is normally 400 laps, and overtime has occurred less often at Richmond. The last three full races have gone no laps over the normal distance.
Can Kyle Busch Right the Ship?
Sports bettors have a little positive history at Richmond when it comes to the Joe Gibbs driver. However, Kyle Busch is heading downward in the NASCAR Cup Series odds, but here is where it gets crazy. Busch’s 35th-place finish (Crash – DNF) increases the urgency greatly for the driver. He needs a big result now that the No. 18 is 14th in the “Chase Standings”.
Oh, did we mention that he starts 15th on Saturday night and was fined for last week’s crash and actions?
— william kakabaker (@williamkakabake) September 8, 2021
The question becomes can the younger Busch respond as most expect? His +650 odds seem to indicate that he will on Saturday night.
Is Brad Keselowski or Joey Logano Worth a Shot?
The Team Penske drivers have had success on the short track at Richmond. Brad Keselowski won at Richmond last summer and Joey Logano has six top-four finishes during the last eight races. That is partly why Keselowski, despite his struggles, comes in at +1000 to win. Logano has seen his odds shorten to just +700.
This spring at Richmond, Ryan Blaney had his best Richmond result and came home 11th.
All nine of his other Richmond results are 17th worse.
The difference? He used Brad Keselowski's setup. pic.twitter.com/I073CrPEiV
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) September 8, 2021
For those wondering, that Brad Keselowski setup has served Team Penske well. Even the aforementioned Ryan Blaney benefitted greatly from it. Blaney expects to run some version of that again on Saturday night. Team Penske starts sixth, seventh, and eighth respectively. Strategy will play a role, especially early.
There are some other things to consider too. This race has been won typically on late long-runs. Keselowski has benefitted from that in the past. Logano has led 40+ laps in three of his previous four appearances on the track. If Kevin Harvick or Martin Truex Jr. do not pull this off, does someone from Team Penske?
Or will someone else shake up the “playoff chase”? With the way this season has gone, maybe we should bet on that.
Here are our best bets:
- Top Pick: Kyle Busch to win (+650)
- Medium Shot: Joey Logano (+700)
- Longshots: Alex Bowman (+1800), Austin Dillon (+5000)