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NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Odds and Picks

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Racing

Oct 15, 2020 · 9:03 PM PDT

Kevin Harvick speeding around a turn.
Kevin Harvick is the favorite to win this weekend. Photo by Freewheeling Daredevil (Wikimedia).
  • The 2020 Hollywood Casino 400 will take place on Sunday, October 18th (2:30 pm ET) at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas
  • Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are co-favorites for this race at +420
  • Which drivers are a good bet for this Sunday?

The NASCAR playoffs keep on rolling as the drivers head to Kansas Speedway this Sunday for the Hollywood Casino 400. The race is slated to get started at 2:30 PM ET.

Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are co-favorites to win this weekend but are either a good bet at short odds? Let’s take a closer look at three drivers who may be offering better value.

2020 Hollywood Casino 400 Odds

Driver Odds
Kevin Harvick +420
Denny Hamlin +420
Martin Truex Jr. +600
Chase Elliott +650
Brad Keselowski +900
Joey Logano +1700
Kyle Busch +1700
Ryan Blaney +1700
Alex Bowman +2600
Erik Jones +3100
Kurt Busch +3100
Aric Almirola +3500

Odds as of Oct 15 at FanDuel.

Trust Truex Jr. in Kansas

Martin Truex Jr. has a fantastic track record at Kansas, which is why he’s among the favorites this week. He hasn’t always dominated on this track – he didn’t have any good results from 2006-2011 – but recently he’s been incredible.

Over his last seven starts at Kansas, he has two wins and six results in the top six. Nobody has a better average finish (5.29) in that span.

Overall, Truex Jr. has been up and down. Over his last six starts, he has three results in the top-seven spots and three finishes at 22nd or worse.

However, those three finishes in the 20s are the only times in the last 14 races that he’s been outside of the top seven. He’s a good bet to win outright and for top-ten props.

Harvick Loves Kansas Speedway

Another driver who loves racing in Kansas is Kevin Harvick. Among active drivers, Harvick has the best average finish of any driver who has made at least 10 starts here. He’s won this race three times but the consistency is what is impressive.

Over his last 14 starts here, he’s finished no worse than 16th. In that span, he has three wins, three finishes in second a third and a fourth.

Even with that track record, you might want to consider Harvick for a Top 10 rather than an outright win. He still leads in the NASCAR standings but he’s in a bit of a slump – at least by his standards.

Over his last three starts, he’s finished 11th, 20th and 10th, so maybe a Top 10 is safer with him than betting him to win the race.

Past Winners at Hollywood Casino 400

Year Driver
2019 Denny Hamlin
2018 Chase Elliott
2018 Martin Truex Jr.
2018 Kevin Harvick
2018 Joey Logano

Kurt Busch For a Top-Ten Finish

Kurt Busch is further down the board as the oddsmakers don’t expect him to win. He’s at +3100 mostly because he’s not a driver who wins often (only one win this season) and he’s never won at Kansas. However, a top-ten bet is intriguing. He’s finished in that range in nine of his last 12 showings here.

As mentioned, Busch only has one win on the year but it did come recently. It feels like he’s riding with a bit of momentum as he’s produced results of fourth, 32nd and first in his last three outings. He’s on the board at -120 to finish in the top ten and that seems like a reasonable bet here.

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