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NASCAR Pennzoil 400 Odds and Picks – Trust Truex Jr. in Las Vegas

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Racing

Mar 4, 2021 · 7:15 AM PST

Pennzoil 400 odds Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. walks to his race car before a NASCAR Cup Series auto race Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Isaac Brekken)
  • The Pennzoil 400 is set for Sunday, March 7th, 2021 with the race starting at 1:30 PM EST
  • Joey Logano has won twice in a row at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
  • Which drivers are the best bets for this Sunday’s race? Check out the odds, analysis, and picks below

After starting the season with a trio of races in Florida, the drivers head to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400. This week’s race will get going at 1:30 PM EST on Sunday, March 7th, 2021. Kevin Harvick is the betting favorite in the Pennzoil 400 odds.

Joey Logano has won this race two times in a row but, he’s fresh off a 25th-place result in Miami. Is he the best bet here? Let’s take a look at the race and make some predictions.

2021 Pennzoil 400 Odds

Driver Odds
Kevin Harvick +600
Martin Truex Jr. +650
Chase Elliott +800
Brad Keselowski +800
Joey Logano +800
Denny Hamlin +900
Kyle Larson +1000
Ryan Blaney +1300
Kyle Busch +1300
Alex Bowman +1800
Kurt Busch +1800
William Byron +1800
Christopher Bell +3300
Aric Almirola +4000
Austin Dillon +4000
Tyler Reddick +5000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +5000
Cole Custer +6600
Matt DiBenedetto +6600

Odds taken Mar. 4 at DraftKings

Trust Martin Truex Jr.?

Kevin Harvick is favored to win this race but his last five results at Las Vegas Motor Speedway are 10th, eighth, second, fourth, and 39th. He’s at the top of the board because he’s finished third, fourth, sixth, and fifth this season (going back to The Duel #2), but Martin Truex Jr. seems like the better play.

Vegas has been kind to Truex Jr. lately finishing in the top eight in six of his last seven starts here, which includes a pair of wins. He’s also led laps in five of the last seven races in Vegas. Since 2018, only two other drivers have a better average finish on this track (Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano). After a third-place finish at Miami, he has momentum on his side.

Pick: Martin Truex Jr. (+650)

Can Keselowski Get On Track?

It’s still very early on in the season, but Brad Keselowski’s performance has been a bit surprising. Keselowski has seen his odds to win the NASCAR Cup Series increase from +800 to +900 since November.

Including exhibition races, he’s finished 11th or worse in four of the five races so far. Granted, he’s finished no worse than 16th in any outing but consider this – he finished 11th or worse just 12 times in 36 starts. He’s struggling a little bit.

As a result of that cool start, the oddsmakers have put him a cut below the favorites and that means there could be some value with him. This is a track he loves. While he finished 13th in the fall race at Las Vegas last season, he had 10 straight results in the top seven before that – including three wins and a runner-up. If you’re not confident in him winning, bet him for a Top 10 prop.

Pick: Brad Keselowski Top 10 (-225)

Pennzoil 400 Past Winners

Year Driver
2020 Joey Logano
2019 Joey Logano
2018 Kevin Harvick
2017 Martin Truex Jr.
2016 Brad Keselowski

Avoid Elliott?

Chase Elliott had a scintillating second-place result at the Daytona 500 but, he’s been surprisingly mediocre ever since. Expected to win the road course race at Daytona, he mustered up a mediocre 21st placed finish. Some people thought he’d have a good shot to rebound in Miami last week, but he ended up in 14th place.

Elliott doesn’t have a good history at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, so until that changes, he’s a driver to avoid. Last season, his two results here were 22nd and 26th. He does have a third, a fourth, and a ninth in his eight starts at Las Vegas but other than those, he’s been 22nd or worse every time. Steer clear of him this week.

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