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Updated NASCAR Cup Series Odds Favor Kyle Larson Heading Into Playoffs

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Sep 3, 2021 · 12:39 PM PDT

NASCAR Cup Series odds
Kyle Larson celebrates in Victory Lane after winning the NASCAR Cup Series All-Star auto race at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas, Sunday, June 13, 2021. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
  • Kyle Larson is still the favorite to win the NASCAR championship this season.
  • Does anyone else of value stand a chance against the Hendrick Motorsports driver?
  • We’ve got you covered with all the odds, and the best bet as the final ten races of 2021 commence.

NASCAR starts the playoffs at Darlington with a Sunday night drive under the lights. This is after Daytona determined the field for the chase. Sixteen drivers vie for the NASCAR cup series over the final ten races. Currently, Kyle Larson leads the field with 52 playoff points accumulated.

Let’s take a look at the NASCAR Cup Series Odds and figure out which drivers are the best bets and a few that provide some value.

NASCAR Cup Series Odds

Driver Odds at FanDuel
Kyle Larson +270
Chase Elliott +700
Denny Hamlin +800
Kyle Busch +900
Martin Truex Jr. +1000
Joey Logano +1200
Brad Keselowski +1400
Alex Bowman +1400
William Byron +1700
Ryan Blaney +1700
Kevin Harvick +1900
Christopher Bell +2400
Kurt Busch +3500
Aric Almirola +5500
Tyler Reddick +7500
Michael McDowell +17000

Odds as of September 3rd

Kyle Larson Best Bet as NASCAR Cup Series Odds Favorite?

NASCAR drivers will have ten races to win the 2021 NASCAR Championship. There are eliminations after three, six, nine, and, then the tenth race determines the winner. It is a unique format and the fact that Kyle Larson leads the way early with 52 playoff points does not hurt.

Simply, this is a product of the No. 5 driver being the most consistent racer all season long. Since the Florida swing, Larson has been head and shoulders above the rest on a week-to-week basis. It is more than the fact that the Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver has won five times this year.

Larson at +270  in the NASCAR Cup Series odds offers a tiny bit of value even. He has an average finish of 9,7 going into the playoffs.  The driver has led the most laps on the circuit this year. This first leg may not favor Larson, but he should be able to sail into the Final 12. Again, the early boost of points helps the No. 5, and his ability to lead laps to win stages helps as well. Up until the playoff finale, all points accumulated add to one’s chances of advancing

Deeper Into Kyle Larson’s Playoff Chances

Only in the final race at Phoenix are the final four drivers reset to zero points. It truly is a winner-take-all format at that juncture. With Larson not finishing worse than 7th on the Phoenix track over the last five races, that only elevates his chances.

It just shows that the pattern seems to be working in Larson’s favor as well. The tracks do as well. There is only one more road course, and that is a ROVAL where Larson showed great ability to win and nearly pulled it off (see Indianapolis).

Now, with this format, it is not easy to finish the deal and win the playoffs after the regular season. If any driver can do it, it is Kyle Larson.

Ryan Blaney Is One Longshot

Sports bettors are always looking for that unexpected pick to do well or just someone with longer odds than most would expect. It will be intriguing to see how Ryan Blaney fares. Last year, his first race in the chase was a total nightmare as several mistakes led to a deficit he could not recover from. What did he learn from 2020? That remains the question.

Oh, did we mention that he does have some juicy odds at +1700? Also, Blaney comes in as one of the hottest drivers the past few weeks — complete with wins at Michigan and Daytona.  The risk with him is his previous history. The Team Penske driver does not perform all that well at Darlington, Martinsville, or Bristol. If Blaney can find a way past the first elimination, he stands a good chance of making the Final Four at Phoenix.

The question becomes can he get off to a better start in these playoffs? Blaney can handle the repaved Turn 2 better than most, and a good finish could be a springboard for a deep playoff run.

How about Joey Logano?

Now, another long shot may just be Joey Logano. This was tough as there are cases to be made for several drivers. Logano has finished in the top five in four of the last five seasons (won in 2018). His chase finishing average is among the best for all drivers in the last five years.

The No. 22 driver comes in with +1200 sixth-best odds. That may not constitute a longshot, according to some. However, consider the season Logano has had. He was flipped at Talladega and limped into the chase with four outside top-20 results (two DNF’s).

Again, these little things cannot be overlooked. With all eyes on the final ten races, any little edge can pay off in bigger ways down the road. Logano may be one worth taking a shot on especially if his odds lengthen a little early on in the playoffs.

Is Kyle Larson THE Best Bet?

Hendrick Motorsports Racing qualified all four of their drivers for “The Chase”. That gives them a 25% chance of winning the playoff. Larson represents the best chance of those four.

As the saying goes, Larson’s consistency, along with driving ability gets him to the Final Four. The fact that Hendricks’ cars were very fast at Phoenix last Fall could cement his chance to win the whole thing.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick: Kyle Larson to win (+270)
  • Medium Shot: Kyle Busch (+900)
  • Longshots: Joey Logano (+1200), Ryan Blaney (+1700)
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