Retirement Odds – Is This Arian’s Last Race?

When a superstar athlete retires, it feels similar to a lifelong friend moving away to a new city. It’s devastating when you don’t get to see them anymore. You grew so attached, and now you’re constantly wondering what it would be like if they were still around. You even take time out of your day to plead for their return. It’s an awful circumstance, and I wish no one had to go through it. Unfortunately, this Father Time character continues showing his face, and continues breaking our hearts. He’s a real jerk.

Since fall 2015, we have had to say our goodbyes to Kobe Bryant, Peyton Manning, Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson, Pavel Datsyuk, Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, and Conor McGregor (ok, not really, but some people believed it). Not only are those some of the greatest players ever at their respective positions, but some are arguably the greatest of all-time in their entire sport. As the calendar turns from 2016 to 2017 and, inevitably, to 2018, we will be saying a fond adieu to David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez (a very distant friend), and Usain Bolt. Who’s going to join them on the sidelines?

Here’s a list of our friends who might be leaving us behind in the next year, along with the odds of us needing to look for new pals.

Odds to Retire in the Next Year

NFL

Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: 5/4

I have a secret hunch that Antonio Gates hates Ladarius Green, and that the only reason he didn’t retire last year was to keep Green on the sidelines. Now that Gates’ would-be replacement has left San Diego via free agency, it seems fitting that the Canton-bound tight end will hang them up following the 2016 season. It will be his final middle finger to the young buck.

Arian Foster, NFL Free Agent: 3/1

The former Texan had his 2015, and many other seasons, cut short due to injury. According to Foster, he will be fully healed from his torn Achilles come Week 1. I do not have any doubt that there is a team that will give him a shot (Miami or Indianapolis), but who knows how effective he will be, and how many games he’ll play before he suffers his next injury. Barring a complete 16-game season that sees Foster back in the Mount Rushmore of running backs, this will most likely be his last; whether the decision is made by him or the 32 teams in the league remains to be seen.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: 4/1

Now 37 years old, and battling some pretty serious shoulder issues, the end is near for one of the best quarterbacks of the last decade. Add in the fact that he is entering the final year of his contract with a team in desperate need of a rebuild, and you’ve got yourself a man who should walk away. If the Saints put together another poor season, the odds of Brees retiring will only get better.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: 9/1

So maybe he doesn’t belong in the “superstar” category, but regardless of your opinion on the divisive QB, he is certainly a well-known name in the sports world. Romo, now 36 years old, has had his issues with injuries over the last two seasons: in 2014 fractured his back; last season, he broke his clavicle. Dallas lacks another option at quarterback, so they will be eager for Romo to stick around a little longer. However, should he suffer another injury this season, it will probably end up being his last. While we’re on the topic, how does this guy get the women he does?! I know that ladies love the long-ball, but I didn’t know they were attracted to costly interceptions, too.

Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers: 50/1

Although the Steelers running back has only been in the league for three seasons, he certainly has taken a beating over his short career. This is a complete longshot, but as long as he’s playing Vontaze Burfict twice per year, the borderline illegal hits won’t stop.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots: 50/1

Despite “Terrific Tom” being 38 years old, the legendary quarterback recently proclaimed that he would like to play another ten years in the league. That’s great, Tom. I’d “like” to marry a supermodel. Do I have a realistic chance to do that? Absolutely not! Brady’s odds of lasting another decade are probably better than mine. (He isn’t showing any signs of ageing yet and the Patriots always seem to be there come January.) But, that whole ageing process aside, there’s no way he wants to deal with Roger Goodell for another ten years.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: 75/1

Sad as it is, he’s now the biggest star the Lions have. Isn’t it customary for their best player to retire young?

Myles Jack, Jacksonville Jaguars: 100/1

Will he follow in the footsteps of Chris Borland and avoid more harm to his already banged-up body? I don’t foresee it either.

NBA

Paul Pierce, Los Angeles Clippers: 6/7

Pierce proved he still had something to offer in the 2015 playoffs: experience. However, Father Time hit “The Truth” with a major blow last year; he shot under 40-percent from the field for the first time in his career. The former Celtic legend, who will be 39 in October, said he has a maximum of one year left in him. But does he even have one? Pierce says it’s 50/50. I say otherwise.

Kevin Garnett, Minnesota Timberwolves: 8/7

The “Big Ticket” played less than 15 minutes per game last season, and is now 40 years old. He is hardly effective on the court anymore, but he is providing the young, inexperienced Timberwolves with some veteran guidance. If he returns to Minnesota, Garnett will reunite with Tom Thibodeau, with whom he has a strong relationship from their time together in Boston. Does he want to continue being player/coach, or lose the player title?

Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs: 2/1

Trying to figure out when “The Big Fundamental” will retire is like trying to get a genuine response from Gregg Popovich; it may never happen. Duncan is now 40 years old, but proved he can still be effective in spurts last season. What makes this so tough is the fact that San Antonio is always a contender; playing one more season could very well result in his sixth championship. I say Duncan comes back for “one more” year because Pop doesn’t give him permission to retire.

Vince Carter, Memphis Grizzlies: 20/1

The former dunk champion is now 39, but claims he still has a couple more years in him. He’ll play out the last year of his contract in Memphis, and then return to Toronto, the city he put on the basketball map, for a goodbye campaign, and possibly a shot at playing in the NBA Finals.

Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls: 30/1

Once the league’s MVP, Rose is now one of the league’s most injury-riddled players. His name has been thrown around in trade rumors, and another injury, especially knee-related, would almost certainly be enough to force the explosive point guard into retirement. Predicting injuries is like predicting the weather, though; who knows? (All offense intended to meteorologists, who are inexplicably terrible at their one job!)

NHL

Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks: 4/1

“Jumbo Joe” is set to turn 37 at the beginning of July, but just got his first taste of the Stanley Cup finals. Thornton is not the 100-point player that he used to be, but is still a valued member of the Western Conference champion San Jose Sharks. Coming up short in his first encounter with the cup will leave him hungry for more.

Jaromir Jagr, Florida Panthers: 9/1

At a mind-boggling 44 years old, Jagr is by far the oldest active player in the NHL, and such a fan-favorite. I’m not ready to say goodbye to the man who made mullets cool, and he doesn’t seem to be ready to bid us farewell, either. Please, Jaromir, never retire!

Zdeno Chara, Boston Bruins: 50/1

He may not be logging 28 minutes per game anymore, but he’s still putting in just over 24. The monstrous defenseman has made it clear that he wants to play out his remaining contract with the Bruins at the very least, which gives him two more seasons. Chara has never been the fastest skater on the ice, so his game shouldn’t diminish too much with age.

Gary Bettman, NHL Commissioner: 75/1

Does Gary Bettman even like Gary Bettman? I have never seen a man take so many boos with a smile on his face. Although his retirement would make a lot of people happy, I don’t think we’ll be so lucky.

MLB

Ichiro Suzuki, Miami Marlins: 3/1

Although Pete Rose won’t acknowledge it, Suzuki just broke Rose’s record for most career hits; I have a feeling Pete’s opinion doesn’t carry much weight in the baseball world though. It was believed that the Japanese outfielder was only hanging around in order to break the record, since his numbers were plummeting. However, Suzuki is averaging .349 right now for the Marlins, and isn’t costing them much. Expect him back in a Marlins jersey next season.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers: 50/1

The Tigers’ pitcher has it all: a Cy Young, an AL MVP, millions upon millions of dollars, and Kate Upton. Yes, Justin, we are all incredibly envious of you. What else do you want?

Other

Dan Henderson, UFC: 1/3

We could easily just swap the title “odds on Dan Henderson retiring,” for “odds Dan Henderson gets to fight Michael Bisping,” since the 46-year old icon has announced that it would be his dream retirement fight.

Maria Sharapova, Tennis: 9/1

The Russian tennis star is currently appealing the two-year suspension handed to her for the use of a performance enhancing drug. Should the two-year ban hold-up, Sharapova may move on from the game. She wouldn’t be eligible to return until the 2018 Australian Open, at which point she will be 31. However, if it is reduced to the one-year ban she’s asking for, her return to the court would almost be a certainty. Based on what we know, we’ll see her back in 2017.

Roger Federer, Tennis: 30/1

Federer has not won a grand slam championship since 2012 Wimbledon. Add that onto the fact that he’s now 34 years old (ancient in men’s tennis), and the result is the winds of retirement beginning to swirl. Many believe he will call it a career after the 2016 Rio Olympics, but Federer has been quick to say that’s not true. This may turn into another Peyton Manning situation.\

(Photo credit: AJ Guel (Flickr) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)